Boston University Terriers at Columbia Lions: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 7:00 PM ETLevien Gymnasium · at Columbia

#261BUBoston U49final

Final

#170COLUColumbia54▲ winner

Closing lineCOLU -4.5✓ COLU covered by 0.5

Closing total144.5Under by 41.5

Season records: Boston U and Columbia
BU	This season	COLU
2-2	Record	2-1
2-2	ATS	3-0
3-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BU 72–79 COLU · ✓ COLU (73%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BU	20	29	49
COLU	37	17	54

1st half: BU 20, COLU 37 (COLU by 17). The model had COLU by 4.0 and a total of 70.5 (actual 57).

Team stats

BU		COLU
18-58 31%	Field goals	20-51 39%
2-18 11%	3-pointers	7-21 33%
11-16 69%	Free throws	7-9 78%
35 11 off	Rebounds	42 9 off
7	Assists	15
6	Steals	3
3	Blocks	4
5	Turnovers	13
12	Fouls	13
32	Points in paint	22
6	Fast-break points	5

Players

BU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mike McNair Jr. G	38	4	7	0	0-7	0-3
Chance Gladden G	33	14	4	2	4-20	0-5
Ben Roy G	32	13	1	2	5-7	2-4
Ben Defty C	32	14	10	2	7-10	0-0
Sam Hughes F	27	0	2	1	0-6	0-4
Bench
Azmar Abdullah G	24	2	2	0	1-5	0-2
Quinn Nielsen F	14	2	6	0	1-3	0-0

Did not play: Spencer Joyner, Andrew Bhesania, Donte Tisinger Jr., Peter Carr, Malcolm Chimezie, Kyrone Alexander, Ethan Okwuosa, Matai Baptiste, Otto Landrum

COLU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kenny Noland G	34	5	0	2	1-7	1-5
Blair Thompson F	29	6	6	3	3-5	0-1
Zine Eddine Bedri F	24	6	12	3	2-7	0-0
Mason Ritter F	23	9	5	1	4-6	1-1
Miles Franklin G	21	10	3	0	4-8	2-4
Bench
Gerard O'Keefe G	26	3	1	3	1-5	1-5
Ryan Soulis F	17	10	5	0	4-6	1-1
Connor Igoe F	16	5	7	2	1-3	1-2
Hampton Sanders G	10	0	1	1	0-4	0-2

Did not play: Edwin Bai, Leland Coleman, Nigel Clarkson, Richard Nweke, Nicolo Romanelli, Dan Vessey, Avery Brown, Josiah Cunningham

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COLU -4.5	COLU -6.8	COLU +2.3	W COLU covered
Total	144.5	150.4	Over 5.9	L Under
Projected score	—	BU 71.8 · COLU 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLU -4.0	COLU -17.0
1H total	70.5	57
1H projected score	BU 33.3 · COLU 37.2	BU 20 · COLU 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BU WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
COLU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: BU away, as underdog; COLU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BU OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2
COLU UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
COLUlast 3	2-1 67%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Boston U

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +18 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

over 3under 1avg +18 ptslonger = bigger margin

Columbia

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −9.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NHVN	W 71-53	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 10	@CONN	L 62-89	+32.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsUML	W 86-72	-13.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

+10.5

CONN

L 62-89

+5.5

UML

W 86-72

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

−24.5

CONN

L 62-89

−4.5

UML

W 86-72

+1.5

over 1under 2avg −9.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Boston University Terriers at Columbia Lions

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Boston U

Columbia

Boston U

Columbia