UMass Lowell River Hawks at Columbia Lions: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ETLevien Gymnasium · at Columbia

Final

#170COLUColumbia86▲ winner

Closing lineCOLU -13.5✓ COLU covered by 0.5

Closing total156.5Over by 1.5

Season records: UMass Lowell and Columbia
UML	This season	COLU
0-2	Record	1-1
0-2	ATS	2-0
1-1	O/U	0-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UML 72–84 COLU · ✓ COLU (85%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UML	36	36	72
COLU	31	55	86

1st half: UML 36, COLU 31 (UML by 5). The model had COLU by 7.1 and a total of 73.1 (actual 67).

Team stats

UML		COLU
28-59 47%	Field goals	30-63 48%
7-13 54%	3-pointers	8-19 42%
9-14 64%	Free throws	18-26 69%
25 10 off	Rebounds	48 23 off
21	Assists	15
6	Steals	6
2	Blocks	3
14	Turnovers	17
20	Fouls	17
40	Points in paint	38
3	Fast-break points	6

Players

UML	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xavier Spencer G	39	12	5	12	5-11	1-3
Darrel Yepdo G	34	10	1	3	3-7	2-3
Shawn Simmons II F	32	14	2	2	5-14	2-4
Austin Green F	30	19	6	0	8-12	0-0
Jared Frey G	23	5	2	2	2-3	1-1
Bench
Khalil Farmer G	24	5	2	1	2-6	1-2
JJ Massaquoi F	15	7	1	1	3-6	0-0
Keenan Bey F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jerrell Roberson II F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Isaiah Walter, Angel Montas Jr., Victor Okojie, Kris Johnson

COLU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kenny Noland G	33	24	2	1	7-15	4-8
Blair Thompson F	30	0	7	3	0-7	0-2
Mason Ritter F	28	14	9	1	6-6	0-0
Zine Eddine Bedri F	23	19	5	2	8-13	2-3
Miles Franklin G	18	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Gerard O'Keefe G	21	16	1	4	6-9	2-3
Connor Igoe F	16	5	6	2	0-2	0-1
Ryan Soulis F	13	0	5	0	0-2	0-0
Hampton Sanders G	12	6	2	2	2-3	0-1
Josiah Cunningham G	6	2	0	0	1-4	0-1

Did not play: Nigel Clarkson, Leland Coleman, Avery Brown, Edwin Bai, Richard Nweke, Nicolo Romanelli, Dan Vessey

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COLU -13.5	COLU -12.0	UML +1.5	L COLU covered
Total	156.5	156.1	Under 0.4	L Over
Projected score	—	UML 72.1 · COLU 84.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COLU -7.1	UML -5.0
1H total	73.1	67
1H projected score	UML 33 · COLU 40.1	UML 36 · COLU 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UML LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
COLU WW	2-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: UML away, as underdog; COLU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UML OU	1-1	50%	0-2
COLU UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UMLlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%
COLUlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UML 1–0 COLUUML leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UML 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2022-23	UML 89 @ COLU 62	COLU +8.5	UML W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UMass Lowell

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −21.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@CONN	L 47-110	+36.5	L −26.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 10	vsNHVN	L 67-73	-10.5	L −16.5	142.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CONN

L 47-110

−26.5

NHVN

L 67-73

−16.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −21.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CONN

L 47-110

+5.5

NHVN

L 67-73

−2.5

over 1under 1avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Columbia

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −14.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NHVN	W 71-53	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 10	@CONN	L 62-89	+32.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

+10.5

CONN

L 62-89

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 71-53

−24.5

CONN

L 62-89

−4.5

over 0under 2avg −14.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UMass Lowell River Hawks at Columbia Lions

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UMass Lowell

Columbia

UMass Lowell

Columbia