Merrimack Warriors at Boston University Terriers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ETCase Gym · at Boston U

#225MRMKMerrimack91▲ winner

Final

#261BUBoston U79final

Closing lineBU -2.5✓ MRMK covered by 14.5

Closing total135.5Over by 34.5

Season records: Merrimack and Boston U
MRMK	This season	BU
0-3	Record	2-1
0-3	ATS	2-1
1-2	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MRMK 67–73 BU · ✗ BU (73%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MRMK	48	43	91
BU	34	45	79

1st half: MRMK 48, BU 34 (MRMK by 14). The model had BU by 4.0 and a total of 65.5 (actual 82).

Team stats

MRMK		BU
29-54 54%	Field goals	28-54 52%
19-30 63%	3-pointers	11-27 41%
14-16 88%	Free throws	12-19 63%
33 9 off	Rebounds	25 8 off
20	Assists	18
7	Steals	6
2	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	10
16	Fouls	16
18	Points in paint	30
7	Fast-break points	10

Players

MRMK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tye Dorset G	38	13	4	3	3-9	3-6
Ernest Shelton G	36	33	4	1	10-13	9-12
Kevair Kennedy G	36	16	11	8	5-10	0-0
Todd Brogna F	29	11	4	2	4-8	3-6
Andrés Marrero G	22	14	3	3	5-8	4-5
Bench
KC Ugwuakazi F	15	4	1	0	2-3	0-0
Aliou Cisse F	10	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Dylan Veillette F	10	0	3	2	0-2	0-1
Malik Edmead G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Jacob Moore, Quinn Kwasniak, David Munro, Brendan Johnson, Brandon Legris, Jaylen Stinson

BU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mike McNair Jr. G	38	21	1	2	7-12	5-9
Chance Gladden G	35	10	8	8	3-9	1-4
Sam Hughes F	34	17	2	4	7-12	3-7
Ben Roy G	33	5	1	3	2-4	1-2
Ben Defty C	30	16	9	0	6-10	0-0
Bench
Azmar Abdullah G	21	6	1	1	2-6	1-5
Quinn Nielsen F	9	4	2	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Andrew Bhesania, Malcolm Chimezie, Donte Tisinger Jr., Peter Carr, Spencer Joyner, Kyrone Alexander, Ethan Okwuosa, Matai Baptiste, Otto Landrum

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BU -2.5	BU -6.9	BU +4.4	L MRMK covered
Total	135.5	139.9	Over 4.4	W Over
Projected score	—	MRMK 66.5 · BU 73.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BU -4.0	MRMK -14.0
1H total	65.5	82
1H projected score	MRMK 30.8 · BU 34.8	MRMK 48 · BU 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRMK LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-3
BU WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MRMK away, as underdog; BU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRMK UOU	1-2	33%	0-3
BU OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRMKlast 3	0-3 0%	0-3 0%	1-2 33%
BUlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MRMK 1–3 BUBU leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · MRMK 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 13, 2024-25	BU 61 @ MRMK 64	MRMK -4.5	BU W
Dec 30, 2023-24	MRMK 63 @ BU 74	BU +1.5	BU W
Dec 2, 2022-23	BU 68 @ MRMK 54	MRMK +3.5	BU W
Nov 28, 2021-22	MRMK 60 @ BU 61	BU -6	MRMK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Merrimack

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −8.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U O U

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	@TAR	L 62-76	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

TAR

L 62-76

−9.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

TAR

L 62-76

−4.5

over 1under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Boston U

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +12.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

over 2under 1avg +12.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Merrimack Warriors at Boston University Terriers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Merrimack

Boston U

Merrimack

Boston U