Matthews Arena · at Northeastern
Closing line
NE -1.5✓ UVM covered by 12.5
NE -1.5✓ UVM covered by 12.5Closing total134.5Over by 24.5
 UVM | This season | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | ATS | 2-1 |
| 1-0 | O/U | 1-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UVM 70–74 NE · ✗ NE (61%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVM | 30 | 55 | 85 |
| NE | 33 | 41 | 74 |
1st half: UVM 30, NE 33 (NE by 3). The model had NE by 1.9 and a total of 67.4 (actual 63).
Team stats
| UVM | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 31-56 55% | Field goals | 26-56 46% |
| 13-23 57% | 3-pointers | 6-15 40% |
| 10-12 83% | Free throws | 16-21 76% |
| 29 6 off | Rebounds | 31 10 off |
| 17 | Assists | 12 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| UVM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Long G | 36 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
| TJ Hurley G | 30 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Noah Barnett F | 18 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Lucas Mari G | 14 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Benjamin Michaels F | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sean Blake G | 29 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 6-12 | 3-5 |
| Gus Yalden F | 23 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8-12 | 1-2 |
| Jackson Skipper F | 18 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Ben Johnson G | 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| David Simon F | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ben Wesson, Drew Bessette, Sincere Clemons, Chris Kuzemka, Trey Woodyard, Momo Nkugwa
| NE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youri Fritz F | 37 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Xander Alarie F | 34 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-1 |
| Luca Soroa Schaller F | 33 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 5-12 | 2-5 |
| William Kermoury G | 31 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5-11 | 2-3 |
| Miles Newton G | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| JB Frankel G | 19 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2-8 | 1-3 |
| Mike Loughnane G | 14 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Xavier Abreu G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Liam Koelsch C | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Williams G | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Haris Elezovic, LA Pratt, Ty Francis, Petar Pinter
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNE -1.5
ModelNE -3.3
Model edgeNE +1.8
L UVM covered
Total
Market134.5
Model143.8
Model edgeOver 9.3
W Over
Projected score
UVM 70.2 · NE 73.6
UVM 85 · NE 74
Win probability
NE 61%
1st half
Spread
NE -1.9
NE -3.0
Total
67.4
63 points
Projected score
UVM 32.8 · NE 34.6
UVM 30 · NE 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVM -1.5
3 → NE
CloseNE -1.5
3 pts toward NE
Total
Open137.5
▼ 3
Close134.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
UVM +100 · NE -120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVM -1.5 · closed NE -1.5 · moved 3 toward NEmodel NE -3.5
model NE -3.5
Opened 137.5 · closed 134.5 · moved 3 downmodel 144
model 144
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVMlast 1 | 1-0 100% | 0-1 0% | 1-0 100% |
| NElast 3 | 2-1 67% | 2-1 67% | 1-2 33% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UVM 2–0 NEUVM leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · UVM has won the last 2 meetings · UVM 1-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024-25 | NE 64 @ UVM 68 | UVM -4.5 | NE W |
| Dec 6, 2023-24 | UVM 73 @ NE 71 | NE -0.5 | UVM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Vermont
1 game played
Straight up
1-0
100% wins
Against the spread
0-1
0% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-0
100% overs · avg +41.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | @ BRWN | W 89-84 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 131.5 | O 173 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
−0.5
covered 0didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
+41.5
over 1under 0avg +41.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Northeastern
3 games played
Straight up
2-1
67% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg +9.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
BU
BUL 75-76
−3.5
7
@
COLG
COLGW 68-65
+8.5
11
@
HARV
HARVW 77-60
+22.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +9.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBU
BUL 75-76
+8.5
7
@COLG
COLGW 68-65
−14.5
11
@HARV
HARVW 77-60
−7.5
over 1under 2avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Vermont
1-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · America East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Brown89–84
6 days since their last game.
Northeastern
2-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Harvard77–60
- W@ Colgate68–65
- Lvs Boston U75–76
4 days since their last game.