Cameron Indoor Stadium · at Duke
#288ARMYArmy
@
#3DUKEDuke AP #2
LineDUKE -42.5no move
Total152.5up 2 from 150.5
Season records: Army and Duke
ARMYThis seasonDUKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DUKE 96–53 · win probability DUKE 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
DUKE -42.5
no move since the open
Total
152.5
model 148.8 · Under by 3.5
Model edge
DUKE by 1.5
model vs market
Public on the spread
77% ARMY
63% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DUKE has more of the edges

ARMY 0, DUKE 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DUKEBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ARMY 49.3 and allows 55.1; DUKE 56.6 and allows 46.2
DUKEBig
DUKE offense vs ARMY defense
Offense 11th of 366 against a defense 304th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
ARMY has played the 302nd-hardest schedule, DUKE the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DUKEBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ARMY 26.8, DUKE 38.2. Allowed: ARMY 39.6, DUKE 22.8
DUKEBig
ARMY offense vs DUKE defense
Offense 271st of 366 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings
DUKEBig
Three-pointers
ARMY hits 32.0% and allows 35.5%; DUKE hits 34.7% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 53.3% and 43.5% of their shots
DUKEBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ARMY 29.6%, DUKE 38.4%. Defensive: ARMY 72.3%, DUKE 74.8%
DUKESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ARMY 17.2%, DUKE 16.0%. Forced: ARMY 15.4%, DUKE 17.2%
DUKESmall
Home court
DUKE at home. This season: DUKE 0-0 at home, ARMY 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: ARMY plays 68.6 a game (200th fastest), DUKE 66.8 (285th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ARMY 65%, DUKE 47%. Transfers in: ARMY 0, DUKE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 20 or more116599%50%52%
Non-conference games at this spread109099%50%52%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
ARMY +5650 · DUKE -55000
Line movement
Median of 7 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened DUKE -42.5 · now DUKE -43.5 · moved 1 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -44
Opened 150.5 · now 152.5 · moved 2 upmodel 149
Nov 1line modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
ARMY +42.5SpreadDUKE -42.5
Bets
Money
Money is 14 pts ahead of bets on DUKE -42.5
Over 152.5TotalUnder 152.5
Bets
Money
ARMYWinnerDUKE
Bets
Money

Books

7 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
ARMYDUKEOverUnderARMYDUKE
BetMGMMGM-43.5-110+43.5-110152.5-110152.5-110+3300-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-43.5-110+43.5-110153-110153-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-42.5-108+42.5-115151.5-113151.5-110——
BovadaBovada-43.5-110+43.5-110153-110153-110——
DraftKingsDK-43.5-110+43.5-110152.5-112152.5-108——
FanDuelFD-42.5-104+42.5-118151.5-115151.5-105+8000-100000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-43.5-106+43.5-106153-108153-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadDUKE -42.5DUKE -43.9DUKE +1.4
Total152.5148.8Under 3.7
Projected score—ARMY 52.5 · DUKE 96.4

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadDUKE -26.0—
1H total69.6—
1H projected scoreARMY 21.8 · DUKE 47.8—

Duke has the better starters

Position by position: Army 0, Duke 4, even 1
ArmyBetterDuke
G R. Curry13.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 57
DUKEBig
G J. Blackwell TR19.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 97
G K. McCarthy7.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 13
DUKEBig
G C. Foster8.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76
F J. Holloway10.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 37
DUKEBig
G J. Theodosiou TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 86
F T. Laczkowski5.3 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 38
DUKEBig
G C. Boozer7.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 3 ast Score 85
F D. Benner1.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Sarr6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 52
ArmyBetterDuke
ARMY offense271st of 366 · -8.2
DUKEBig
DUKE defense3rd of 366 · +11.4
ARMY defense304th of 366 · -7.8
DUKEBig
DUKE offense11th of 366 · +10.1
Backcourt-3.1 · 2 players
DUKEBig
Backcourt+9.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players
DUKESmall
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
DUKEBig
Bench+7.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestARMY betterDUKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Army
Guards
R. Curry34 minK. McCarthy24 minD. Watt5 minJ. Green3 minB. O'Keefe2 minJ. EllisNew
Forwards
J. Holloway29 minT. Laczkowski22 minD. Benner6 minN. Ikechi3 minD. Murans3 minH. RasmussenNew
Centers
P. HendersonNew
Duke
Guards
J. Blackwell34 min · TRC. Foster25 minJ. Theodosiou23 min · TRC. Boozer23 minB. DavisNewD. RippeyNew
Forwards
D. Sarr24 minD. Scharnowski22 min · TRS. WilkinsNewC. WilliamsNew
Centers
P. Ngongba22 minM. MeyerNewJ. Boumtje BoumtjeNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ARMYDUKE
Scoring
70.8 #268Points per game81.6 #36
1.03 #281Points per possession1.23 #4
68.6 #200Pace (possessions)66.8 #285
Shooting
49.3 #279Effective FG%56.6 #13
32.0 #2783-point %34.7 #133
53.3 #33-point attempt rate43.5 #100
26.8 #352Free throw rate38.2 #97
Possessions
17.2 #221Turnover rate16.0 #139
29.6 #219Offensive rebound rate38.4 #4
14.5 #118Assists per game16.7 #32
Defense
79.0 #298Points allowed63.6 #3
1.15 #321Points allowed per possession0.95 #2
55.1 #334Opponent effective FG%46.2 #13
35.5 #285Opponent 3-point %30.6 #27
15.4 #257Turnovers forced17.2 #133
72.3 #54Defensive rebound rate74.8 #10
5.4 #307Steals per game7.4 #92
1.6 #359Blocks per game3.4 #164

Army

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Bucknell55–65
  • L@ Lafayette77–83
  • Lvs Bucknell73–75
  • Lvs Navy63–81
  • W@ Loyola MD87–77

A week or more of rest.

Duke

35-3 in 2025-26 overall · 20-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn72–73
  • Wvs St John's80–75
  • Wvs TCU81–58
  • Wvs Siena71–65
  • Wvs Virginia74–70

A week or more of rest.