Capital One Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
MICH -3.5✓ DUKE covered by 8.5
MICH -3.5✓ DUKE covered by 8.5Closing total151.5Under by 20.5
| MICH | This season | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| 25-1 | Record | 24-2 |
| 14-12 | ATS | 15-11 |
| 11-15 | O/U | 8-18 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MICH 79–75 DUKE · ✗ MICH (61%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 33 | 30 | 63 |
| DUKE | 35 | 33 | 68 |
1st half: MICH 33, DUKE 35 (DUKE by 2). The model had MICH by 2.1 and a total of 72.0 (actual 68).
Team stats
| MICH | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-55 40% | Field goals | 25-55 45% |
| 6-25 24% | 3-pointers | 6-19 32% |
| 13-18 72% | Free throws | 12-17 71% |
| 28 8 off | Rebounds | 41 13 off |
| 15 | Assists | 17 |
| 7 | Steals | 4 |
| 7 | Blocks | 5 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 39 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 7-15 | 3-9 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 29 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 1-8 | 1-6 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 28 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 5-10 | 1-1 |
| Aday Mara C | 22 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey McKenney G | 22 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 21 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| L.J. Cason G | 14 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-2 |
| Will Tschetter F | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Charlie May, Harrison Hochberg, Winters Grady, Howard Eisley Jr., Oscar Goodman, Ricky Liburd, Malick Kordel
| DUKE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Boozer F | 34 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 6-10 | 1-2 |
| Patrick Ngongba II C | 28 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Dame Sarr F | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Caleb Foster G | 27 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-3 |
| Isaiah Evans G | 24 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5-15 | 2-9 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nik Khamenia F | 24 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Maliq Brown F | 19 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Cayden Boozer G | 17 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cameron Sheffield, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Sebastian Wilkins, Jack Scott, Darren Harris
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -2.5
1 → MICH
CloseMICH -3.5
1 pt toward MICH
Total
Open148.5
▲ 3
Close151.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
MICH -180 · DUKE +150
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -2.5 · closed MICH -3.5 · moved 1 toward MICHmodel MICH -3.5 matches the line
model MICH -3.5 = line ✓
Opened 148.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 3 upmodel 154
model 154
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MICH -3.5 | MICH -3.3 | DUKE +0.2 | W DUKE covered |
| Total | 151.5 | 153.9 | Over 2.4 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | MICH 78.6 · DUKE 75.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MICH -2.1 | DUKE -2.0 |
| 1H total | 72.0 | 68 |
| 1H projected score | MICH 37 · DUKE 35 | MICH 33 · DUKE 35 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 10-0 100% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| DUKE | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 2-8 20% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan
26 games played
Straight up
25-1
96% wins
Against the spread
14-12
54% covers · avg +5.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-15
42% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vs AUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs RUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vs LAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 2 | vs USC | W 96-66 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 6 | @ PSU | W 74-72 | -24.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs WIS | L 88-91 | -19.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 14 | @ WASH | W 82-72 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ ORE | W 81-71 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vs IU | W 86-72 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | vs OSU | W 74-62 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 27 | vs NEB | W 75-72 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 30 | @ MSU | W 83-71 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 5 | vsPSU | W 110-69 | -26.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 8 | @OSU | W 82-61 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 161.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 11 | @ NU | W 87-75 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 14 | vs UCLA | W 86-56 | -15.5 | W +14.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 17 | @ PUR | W 91-80 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
+7.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−22.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−22.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−2.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−1.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−4.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−8.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+9.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+14.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
+12.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
−3.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
+14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+8.5
covered 14didn’t cover 12avg +5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
−11.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−23.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+9.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−11.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−5.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−5.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−29.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−10.5
30
@MSU
MSUW 83-71
+4.5
5
vsPSU
PSUW 110-69
+17.5
8
@OSU
OSUW 82-61
−18.5
11
@NU
NUW 87-75
+8.5
14
vsUCLA
UCLAW 86-56
−14.5
17
@PUR
PURW 91-80
+14.5
over 11under 15avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Duke
26 games played
Straight up
24-2
92% wins
Against the spread
15-11
58% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-18
31% overs · avg −5.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs TEX | W 75-60 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs WCU | W 95-54 | -36.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARMY | W 114-59 | -33.5 | W +21.5 | 152.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | vs INST | W 100-62 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 18 | vs KU | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs NIA | W 100-42 | -39.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 23 | vs HOW | W 93-56 | -43.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 27 | vs ARK | W 80-71 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 2 | vs FLA | W 67-66 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 6 | @MSU | W 66-60 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIP | W 97-73 | -32.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs TTU | L 81-82 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 31 | vs GT | W 85-79 | -27.5 | L −21.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ FSU | W 91-87 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 6 | @ LOU | W 84-73 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs SMU | W 82-75 | -15.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 14 | @ CAL | W 71-56 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | @ STAN | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 24 | vsWAKE | W 90-69 | -19.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 26 | vsLOU | W 83-52 | -8.5 | W +22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ VT | W 72-58 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 3 | vs BC | W 67-49 | -26.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 7 | @ UNC | L 68-71 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 10 | @ PITT | W 70-54 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 14 | vs CLEM | W 67-54 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 134.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 16 | vs SYR | W 101-64 | -20.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
+4.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
+4.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+21.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
+0.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
+1.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
+18.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−6.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−3.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−8.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
+4.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
−8.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
−10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
−21.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
−12.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
+9.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
−8.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
+0.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
+18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+1.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
+22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
+0.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−8.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−9.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−1.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
+0.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+16.5
covered 15didn’t cover 11avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsTEX
TEXW 75-60
−18.5
8
vsWCU
WCUW 95-54
−3.5
11
@ARMY
ARMYW 114-59
+20.5
14
vsINST
INSTW 100-62
−1.5
18
vsKU
KUW 78-66
−5.5
21
vsNIA
NIAW 100-42
−4.5
23
vsHOW
HOWW 93-56
−5.5
27
vsARK
ARKW 80-71
−8.5
2
vsFLA
FLAW 67-66
−24.5
6
@MSU
MSUW 66-60
−15.5
16
vsLIP
LIPW 97-73
+18.5
20
vsTTU
TTUL 81-82
+10.5
31
vsGT
GTW 85-79
+10.5
3
@FSU
FSUW 91-87
+14.5
6
@LOU
LOUW 84-73
−4.5
10
vsSMU
SMUW 82-75
+1.5
14
@CAL
CALW 71-56
−22.5
17
@STAN
STANW 80-50
−18.5
24
vsWAKE
WAKEW 90-69
+5.5
26
vsLOU
LOUW 83-52
−22.5
31
@VT
VTW 72-58
−18.5
3
vsBC
BCW 67-49
−25.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 68-71
−13.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 70-54
−12.5
14
vsCLEM
CLEMW 67-54
−13.5
16
vsSYR
SYRW 101-64
+20.5
over 8under 18avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan
25-1 overall · 15-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Purdue91–80
- Wvs UCLA86–56
- W@ Northwestern87–75
- W@ Ohio State82–61
- Wvs Penn State110–69
4 days since their last game.
Duke
24-2 overall · 13-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Syracuse101–64
- Wvs Clemson67–54
- W@ Pitt70–54
- L@ North Carolina68–71
- Wvs Boston College67–49
5 days since their last game.