Breslin Center · at Michigan St · Conference game
Closing line
MICH -2.5✓ MICH covered by 9.5
MICH -2.5✓ MICH covered by 9.5Closing total149.5Over by 4.5
| MICH | This season | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| 19-1 | Record | 19-2 |
| 9-11 | ATS | 11-10 |
| 7-13 | O/U | 6-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MICH 78–73 MSU · ✓ MICH (67%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 42 | 41 | 83 |
| MSU | 26 | 45 | 71 |
1st half: MICH 42, MSU 26 (MICH by 16). The model had MICH by 3.1 and a total of 70.7 (actual 68).
Team stats
| MICH | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-59 44% | Field goals | 22-60 37% |
| 8-21 38% | 3-pointers | 4-23 17% |
| 23-26 88% | Free throws | 23-27 85% |
| 36 11 off | Rebounds | 36 15 off |
| 14 | Assists | 14 |
| 2 | Steals | 7 |
| 7 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 21 | Fouls | 23 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| MICH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 35 | 26 | 12 | 1 | 6-13 | 1-4 |
| Elliot Cadeau G | 30 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 5-8 | 3-5 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. F | 29 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Aday Mara C | 21 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4-12 | 0-0 |
| Nimari Burnett G | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey McKenney G | 23 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4-10 | 2-6 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. G | 21 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Will Tschetter F | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| L.J. Cason G | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
Did not play: Oscar Goodman, Ricky Liburd, Malick Kordel, Howard Eisley Jr., Winters Grady, Harrison Hochberg, Charlie May
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Kohler F | 36 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 4-13 | 2-7 |
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 35 | 31 | 5 | 7 | 9-20 | 1-5 |
| Coen Carr F | 34 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3-8 | 0-3 |
| Carson Cooper C | 26 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Divine Ugochukwu G | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Scott F | 26 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-5 |
| Kur Teng G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Cam Ward F | 8 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Trey Fort G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Colin Walton, Brennan Walton, Nick Sanders, Kaleb Glenn, Denham Wojcik
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -1.5
1 → MICH
CloseMICH -2.5
1 pt toward MICH
Total
Open144.5
▲ 5
Close149.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
MICH -142 · MSU +120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -1.5 · closed MICH -2.5 · moved 1 toward MICHmodel MICH -5
model MICH -5
Opened 144.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 5 upmodel 151
model 151
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MICH -2.5 | MICH -5.0 | MICH +2.5 | W MICH covered |
| Total | 149.5 | 151.1 | Over 1.6 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | MICH 78 · MSU 73 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MICH -3.1 | MICH -16.0 |
| 1H total | 70.7 | 68 |
| 1H projected score | MICH 36.9 · MSU 33.8 | MICH 42 · MSU 26 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 9-1 90% | 3-7 30% | 2-8 20% |
| MSU | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
MICH 2–6 MSUMSU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · MSU has won the last 4 meetings · MICH 2-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024-25 | MICH 62 @ MSU 79 | MSU -7.5 | MSU W |
| Feb 21, 2024-25 | MSU 75 @ MICH 62 | MICH -3.5 | MSU W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | MSU 73 @ MICH 63 | MICH +5.5 | MSU W |
| Jan 30, 2023-24 | MICH 62 @ MSU 81 | MSU -11.5 | MSU W |
| Feb 18, 2022-23 | MSU 72 @ MICH 84 | MICH -2.5 | MICH W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan
20 games played
Straight up
19-1
95% wins
Against the spread
9-11
45% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-13
35% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs OAK | W 121-78 | -24.5 | W +18.5 | 156.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 11 | vs WAKE | W 85-84 | -15.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 14 | @ TCU | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs MTSU | W 86-61 | -27.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 24 | vs SDSU | W 94-54 | -6.5 | W +33.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 25 | vs AUB | W 102-72 | -4.5 | W +25.5 | 163.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 26 | vs GONZ | W 101-61 | +3.5 | W +43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 6 | vs RUTG | W 101-60 | -25.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs VILL | W 89-61 | -17.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | @ MD | W 101-83 | -19.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 184 |
| Dec 21 | vs LAS | W 102-50 | -40.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 29 | vs MCN | W 112-71 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 161.5 | O 183 |
| Jan 2 | vs USC | W 96-66 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 173.5 | U 162 |
| Jan 6 | @ PSU | W 74-72 | -24.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 10 | vs WIS | L 88-91 | -19.5 | L −22.5 | 169.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 14 | @ WASH | W 82-72 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ ORE | W 81-71 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 20 | vs IU | W 86-72 | -15.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 23 | vs OSU | W 74-62 | -16.5 | L −4.5 | 165.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 27 | vs NEB | W 75-72 | -11.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+18.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
−14.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−3.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−2.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
+33.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+25.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
+43.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+15.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
+10.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
−1.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
+11.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+16.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
+7.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−22.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−22.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−2.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−8.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−1.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−4.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−8.5
covered 9didn’t cover 11avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsOAK
OAKW 121-78
+42.5
11
vsWAKE
WAKEW 85-84
+0.5
14
@TCU
TCUW 67-63
−34.5
19
vsMTSU
MTSUW 86-61
−12.5
24
vsSDSU
SDSUW 94-54
−0.5
25
vsAUB
AUBW 102-72
+10.5
26
vsGONZ
GONZW 101-61
−3.5
6
vsRUTG
RUTGW 101-60
+7.5
9
vsVILL
VILLW 89-61
−6.5
13
@MD
MDW 101-83
+20.5
21
vsLAS
LASW 102-50
−3.5
29
vsMCN
MCNW 112-71
+21.5
2
vsUSC
USCW 96-66
−11.5
6
@PSU
PSUW 74-72
−23.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+9.5
14
@WASH
WASHW 82-72
−11.5
17
@ORE
OREW 81-71
−5.5
20
vsIU
IUW 86-72
−5.5
23
vsOSU
OSUW 74-62
−29.5
27
vsNEB
NEBW 75-72
−10.5
over 7under 13avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan St
21 games played
Straight up
19-2
90% wins
Against the spread
11-10
52% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-15
29% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 13 | @PSU | W 76-72 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOL | W 92-69 | -23.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 20 | vsOAK | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 29 | vs COR | W 114-97 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 160.5 | O 211 |
| Jan 2 | @NEB | L 56-58 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 146.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 5 | vsUSC | W 80-51 | -11.5 | W +17.5 | 151.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 8 | vs NU | W 76-66 | -13.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 13 | vsIU | W 81-60 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 17 | @WASH | W 80-63 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | @ORE | W 68-52 | -10.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 120 |
| Jan 24 | vsMD | W 91-48 | -18.5 | W +24.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 27 | @RUTG | W 88-79 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 167 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
−8.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
−0.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−10.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
−6.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
+0.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
+17.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−3.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
+14.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
+13.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
+5.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
+24.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
−5.5
covered 11didn’t cover 10avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
13
@PSU
PSUW 76-72
+2.5
16
vsTOL
TOLW 92-69
+10.5
20
vsOAK
OAKW 79-70
−6.5
29
vsCOR
CORW 114-97
+50.5
2
@NEB
NEBL 56-58
−32.5
5
vsUSC
USCW 80-51
−20.5
8
vsNU
NUW 76-66
−1.5
13
vsIU
IUW 81-60
−4.5
17
@WASH
WASHW 80-63
−2.5
20
@ORE
OREW 68-52
−19.5
24
vsMD
MDW 91-48
−2.5
27
@RUTG
RUTGW 88-79
+28.5
over 6under 15avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan
19-1 overall · 9-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Nebraska75–72
- Wvs Ohio State74–62
- Wvs Indiana86–72
- W@ Oregon81–71
- W@ Washington82–72
3 days since their last game.
Michigan St
19-2 overall · 9-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Rutgers88–79
- Wvs Maryland91–48
- W@ Oregon68–52
- W@ Washington80–63
- Wvs Indiana81–60
3 days since their last game.