Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 8, 6:30 PM ETBreslin Center · at Michigan St · Conference game

Final

#10MSUMichigan St AP #1276▲ winner

Closing lineMSU -13.5✓ NU covered by 3.5

Closing total143.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Northwestern and Michigan St
NU	This season	MSU
8-6	Record	13-2
6-8	ATS	7-8
9-5	O/U	5-10

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NU 66–77 MSU · ✓ MSU (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NU	35	31	66
MSU	28	48	76

1st half: NU 35, MSU 28 (NU by 7). The model had MSU by 6.2 and a total of 67.1 (actual 63).

Team stats

NU		MSU
22-58 38%	Field goals	24-49 49%
6-26 23%	3-pointers	5-18 28%
16-20 80%	Free throws	23-33 70%
25 8 off	Rebounds	42 11 off
14	Assists	17
9	Steals	3
2	Blocks	2
6	Turnovers	15
24	Fouls	15
30	Points in paint	32
19	Fast-break points	15

Players

NU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Martinelli F	39	28	5	0	8-11	2-3
Jayden Reid G	29	8	2	8	3-14	0-2
Justin Mullins G	20	4	2	1	2-6	0-3
Jordan Clayton G	20	1	1	0	0-4	0-4
Tre Singleton F	19	3	6	1	1-4	0-2
Bench
Max Green G	24	6	1	1	2-8	2-7
Angelo Ciaravino G	17	5	3	0	2-5	1-3
Arrinten Page F	11	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Jake West G	11	0	0	3	0-1	0-1
Tyler Kropp F	10	9	1	0	3-3	1-1

Did not play: Phoenix Gill, Cade Bennerman, Gus Hurlburt, Blake Smith, K.J. Windham

MSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Carson Cooper C	33	18	9	0	6-6	0-0
Jaxon Kohler F	30	15	8	1	5-9	3-6
Jeremy Fears Jr. G	29	15	1	5	4-11	0-1
Coen Carr F	26	8	6	0	3-6	0-2
Divine Ugochukwu G	22	1	2	5	0-1	0-1
Bench
Kur Teng G	20	6	6	2	2-5	1-4
Jordan Scott F	18	6	2	2	1-4	1-4
Cam Ward F	15	7	7	0	3-5	0-0
Trey Fort G	3	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Denham Wojcik G	3	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Jesse McCulloch F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Colin Walton, Brennan Walton, Nick Sanders, Kaleb Glenn

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MSU -13.5	MSU -10.5	NU +3.0	W NU covered
Total	143.5	143.2	Under 0.3	W Under
Projected score	—	NU 66.3 · MSU 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSU -6.2	NU -7.0
1H total	67.1	63
1H projected score	NU 30.5 · MSU 36.6	NU 35 · MSU 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WWWWL	6-8	43%	0-2	1-3
MSU LLLWW	7-8	47%	3-6	5-7

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; MSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU UOUUO	9-5	64%	8-6
MSU OUOUU	5-10	33%	13-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
MSU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

NU 3–3 MSUSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · MSU has won the last 2 meetings · NU 4-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 12, 2024-25	MSU 78 @ NU 68	NU +2.5	MSU W
Mar 6, 2023-24	NU 49 @ MSU 53	MSU -9.5	NU W
Jan 7, 2023-24	MSU 74 @ NU 88	NU +2.5	NU W
Dec 4, 2022-23	NU 70 @ MSU 63	MSU -5.5	NU W
Jan 15, 2021-22	NU 64 @ MSU 62	MSU -9.5	NU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northwestern

14 games played

Straight up

8-6

57% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-5

64% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-657%

W W W W L W L L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-843%

L W W L L L L L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-564%

U U O O O O O O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMERC	W 70-47	-26.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 7	vsBU	W 76-52	-17.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 10	vsCLE	W 110-63	-23.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 14	@DEP	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUVA	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 161
Nov 23	vsSC	W 79-77	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 27	vsOKST	L 81-86	-2.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 167
Dec 3	@WIS	L 73-85	+10.5	L −1.5	155.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsOSU	L 82-86	+1.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsJKST	W 93-53	-30.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 16	vsVAL	W 86-70	-14.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 20	vsBTLR	L 58-61	+3.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 119
Dec 30	vsHOW	W 80-60	-19.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsMINN	L 78-84	-4.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−3.5

W 76-52

+6.5

CLE

W 110-63

+23.5

DEP

W 81-79

−3.5

UVA

L 78-83

−0.5

W 79-77

−2.5

OKST

L 81-86

−7.5

WIS

L 73-85

−1.5

OSU

L 82-86

−2.5

JKST

W 93-53

+9.5

VAL

W 86-70

+1.5

BTLR

L 58-61

+0.5

HOW

W 80-60

+0.5

MINN

L 78-84

−10.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−23.5

W 76-52

−8.5

CLE

W 110-63

+21.5

DEP

W 81-79

+14.5

UVA

L 78-83

+11.5

W 79-77

+9.5

OKST

L 81-86

+7.5

WIS

L 73-85

+2.5

OSU

L 82-86

+12.5

JKST

W 93-53

−0.5

VAL

W 86-70

+10.5

BTLR

L 58-61

−35.5

HOW

W 80-60

−8.5

MINN

L 78-84

+23.5

over 9under 5avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Michigan St

15 games played

Straight up

13-2

87% wins

Against the spread

7-8

47% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-10

33% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-287%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-847%

L W L W L W W W L L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-1033%

O U U U U O U U U O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOLG	W 80-69	-22.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 8	vsARK	W 69-66	-2.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 13	vsSJSU	W 79-60	-24.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsUK	W 83-66	+3.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsDETM	W 84-56	-30.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 25	vsECU	W 89-56	-19.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 27	vsUNC	W 74-58	-1.5	W +14.5	152.5	U 132
Dec 2	vsIOWA	W 71-52	-5.5	W +13.5	133.5	U 123
Dec 6	vsDUKE	L 60-66	+1.5	L −4.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 13	@PSU	W 76-72	-12.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 16	vsTOL	W 92-69	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 20	vsOAK	W 79-70	-19.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 149
Dec 29	vsCOR	W 114-97	-23.5	L −6.5	160.5	O 211
Jan 2	@NEB	L 56-58	+2.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 114
Jan 5	vsUSC	W 80-51	-11.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COLG

W 80-69

−11.5

ARK

W 69-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 79-60

−5.5

W 83-66

+20.5

DETM

W 84-56

−2.5

ECU

W 89-56

+13.5

UNC

W 74-58

+14.5

IOWA

W 71-52

+13.5

DUKE

L 60-66

−4.5

PSU

W 76-72

−8.5

TOL

W 92-69

−0.5

OAK

W 79-70

−10.5

COR

W 114-97

−6.5

NEB

L 56-58

+0.5

USC

W 80-51

+17.5

covered 7didn’t cover 8avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COLG

W 80-69

+4.5

ARK

W 69-66

−20.5

SJSU

W 79-60

−4.5

W 83-66

−3.5

DETM

W 84-56

−9.5

ECU

W 89-56

+4.5

UNC

W 74-58

−20.5

IOWA

W 71-52

−10.5

DUKE

L 60-66

−15.5

PSU

W 76-72

+2.5

TOL

W 92-69

+10.5

OAK

W 79-70

−6.5

COR

W 114-97

+50.5

NEB

L 56-58

−32.5

USC

W 80-51

−20.5

over 5under 10avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Northwestern

Michigan St

Northwestern

Michigan St