Oklahoma State Cowboys at Northwestern Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 27, 10:51 PM ETUnited Center · at Northwestern

#45OKSTOklahoma St86▲ winner

Final

Closing lineNU -2.5✓ OKST covered by 7.5

Closing total159.5Over by 7.5

Season records: Oklahoma St and Northwestern
OKST	This season	NU
6-0	Record	5-1
3-3	ATS	2-4
3-3	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OKST 79–81 NU · ✗ NU (56%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OKST	39	47	86
NU	40	41	81

1st half: OKST 39, NU 40 (NU by 1). The model had NU by 0.9 and a total of 75.1 (actual 79).

Team stats

OKST		NU
27-63 43%	Field goals	28-56 50%
6-22 27%	3-pointers	3-18 17%
26-33 79%	Free throws	22-30 73%
39 15 off	Rebounds	31 9 off
18	Assists	18
4	Steals	4
5	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	10
24	Fouls	21
42	Points in paint	38
11	Fast-break points	14

Players

OKST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kanye Clary G	29	6	0	5	1-6	0-3
Anthony Roy G	28	16	6	0	5-13	3-7
Vyctorius Miller G	28	17	2	3	5-9	3-5
Parsa Fallah F	24	13	11	2	5-9	0-1
Lefteris Mantzoukas F	15	0	1	0	0-3	0-3
Bench
Isaiah Coleman G	22	4	3	3	1-3	0-0
Jaylen Curry G	21	18	2	4	6-11	0-2
Christian Coleman G	21	10	3	0	3-7	0-0
Andrija Vukovic F	9	2	2	1	1-1	0-0
Ryan Crotty G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Kirk Cole, Daniel Guetta, Benjamin Ahmed, Mekhi Ragland, Robert Jennings II

NU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Martinelli F	37	28	10	2	12-16	1-1
Tre Singleton F	34	6	7	5	1-7	0-5
Jayden Reid G	29	9	1	6	3-7	1-3
Angelo Ciaravino G	29	14	2	2	6-9	1-3
Arrinten Page F	27	11	7	1	3-7	0-2
Bench
K.J. Windham G	17	7	1	1	0-3	0-2
Max Green G	14	4	0	1	2-4	0-2
Jake West G	9	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Justin Mullins G	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Tyler Kropp F	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Gus Hurlburt, Phoenix Gill, Jordan Clayton, Cade Bennerman, Blake Smith

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NU -2.5	NU -1.8	OKST +0.7	W OKST covered
Total	159.5	160.3	Over 0.8	W Over
Projected score	—	OKST 79.3 · NU 81.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NU -0.9	NU -1.0
1H total	75.1	79
1H projected score	OKST 37.1 · NU 38	OKST 39 · NU 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST WLLWL	3-3	50%	—	1-0
NU WWLLL	2-4	33%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: OKST away, as underdog; NU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST UUUOO	3-3	50%	6-0
NU UOOOO	4-2	67%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKSTlast 6	6-0 100%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
NUlast 6	5-1 83%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oklahoma St

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsORU	W 95-71	-20.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 166
Nov 9	vsTA&M	W 87-63	+2.5	W +26.5	174.5	U 150
Nov 12	vsPV	W 94-67	-30.5	L −3.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 16	vsAMCC	W 85-69	-20.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 19	vsUSF	W 103-95	-3.5	W +4.5	177.5	O 198
Nov 22	vsNICH	W 95-81	-23.5	L −9.5	155.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORU

W 95-71

+3.5

TA&M

W 87-63

+26.5

W 94-67

−3.5

AMCC

W 85-69

−4.5

USF

W 103-95

+4.5

NICH

W 95-81

−9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORU

W 95-71

+0.5

TA&M

W 87-63

−24.5

W 94-67

−7.5

AMCC

W 85-69

−0.5

USF

W 103-95

+20.5

NICH

W 95-81

+20.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northwestern

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMERC	W 70-47	-26.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 7	vsBU	W 76-52	-17.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 10	vsCLE	W 110-63	-23.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 14	@DEP	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUVA	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 161
Nov 23	vsSC	W 79-77	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−3.5

W 76-52

+6.5

CLE

W 110-63

+23.5

DEP

W 81-79

−3.5

UVA

L 78-83

−0.5

W 79-77

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−23.5

W 76-52

−8.5

CLE

W 110-63

+21.5

DEP

W 81-79

+14.5

UVA

L 78-83

+11.5

W 79-77

+9.5

over 4under 2avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oklahoma St @ Northwestern

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Oklahoma St

Northwestern

Oklahoma St

Northwestern