Stanford Cardinal vs Minnesota Golden Gophers: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 27, 9:30 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

#85STANStanford72▲ winner

Final

#70MINNMinnesota68final

Closing lineSTAN -2.5✓ STAN covered by 1.5

Closing total142.5Under by 2.5

Season records: Stanford and Minnesota
STAN	This season	MINN
4-1	Record	4-2
2-3	ATS	1-5
3-2	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: STAN 72–73 MINN · ✗ MINN (56%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
STAN	31	41	72
MINN	34	34	68

1st half: STAN 31, MINN 34 (MINN by 3). The model had MINN by 0.9 and a total of 67.9 (actual 65).

Team stats

STAN		MINN
25-67 37%	Field goals	23-45 51%
8-31 26%	3-pointers	9-20 45%
14-18 78%	Free throws	13-18 72%
36 17 off	Rebounds	25 6 off
13	Assists	13
10	Steals	1
3	Blocks	4
8	Turnovers	14
17	Fouls	19
30	Points in paint	28
5	Fast-break points	7

Players

STAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ebuka Okorie G	38	25	4	2	9-21	2-7
Benny Gealer G	37	14	3	5	4-12	4-9
Chisom Okpara F	29	11	4	2	4-15	1-7
Aidan Cammann F	28	9	7	2	2-5	0-2
AJ Rohosy F	20	8	5	1	4-4	0-0
Bench
Ryan Agarwal G	30	5	5	1	2-9	1-5
Kristers Skrinda F	11	0	3	0	0-0	0-0
Jeremy Dent-Smith G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Oskar Giltay C	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Cameron Grant G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Anthony Batson Jr., Donavin Young, Ethan Kitch, Evan Stinson, Tallis Toure, Myles Jones, Jaylen Thompson

MINN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cade Tyson G	39	19	3	2	6-10	1-4
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson F	38	23	4	1	7-15	3-5
Isaac Asuma G	27	6	1	4	2-5	2-3
Grayson Grove F	19	5	1	0	2-3	0-0
Chansey Willis Jr. G	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Langston Reynolds G	33	6	6	4	3-4	0-0
Bobby Durkin F	24	9	5	2	3-6	3-6
Kai Shinholster G	16	0	1	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Chance Stephens, Nehemiah Turner, Robert Vaihola, Max Lorenson, Maximus Gizzi, RJ Spencer, BJ Omot

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	STAN -2.5	MINN -1.8	MINN +4.3	L STAN covered
Total	142.5	144.9	Over 2.4	L Under
Projected score	—	STAN 71.6 · MINN 73.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MINN -0.9	MINN -3.0
1H total	67.9	65
1H projected score	STAN 33.5 · MINN 34.4	STAN 31 · MINN 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
STAN LWLWL	2-3	40%	—	2-3
MINN WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: STAN neutral site, as favorite; MINN neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OOUOU	3-2	60%	4-1
MINN UUUUO	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STANlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
MINNlast 6	4-2 67%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stanford

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +8.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsPRST	W 89-79	-11.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsMONT	W 91-68	-12.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMTST	W 77-68	-14.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 18	vsUL	W 93-66	-20.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	vsSEA	L 69-77	-10.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

−1.5

MONT

W 91-68

+10.5

MTST

W 77-68

−5.5

W 93-66

+6.5

SEA

L 69-77

−18.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

+23.5

MONT

W 91-68

+8.5

MTST

W 77-68

−3.5

W 93-66

+19.5

SEA

L 69-77

−6.5

over 3under 2avg +8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Minnesota

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGWEB	W 87-60	-28.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 8	vsALCN	W 95-50	-31.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 12	@MIZ	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 15	vsGB	W 72-65	-25.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 18	vsCHST	W 66-54	-27.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 22	vsSF	L 65-77	-1.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

+13.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−18.5

CHST

W 66-54

−15.5

L 65-77

−13.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

−7.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−9.5

CHST

W 66-54

−24.5

L 65-77

+1.5

over 1under 5avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stanford Cardinal vs Minnesota Golden Gophers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Stanford

Minnesota

Stanford

Minnesota