Seattle U Redhawks at Stanford Cardinal: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 10:00 PM ETMaples Pavilion · at Stanford

#119SEASeattle U77▲ winner

Final

#85STANStanford69final

Closing lineSTAN -10.5✓ SEA covered by 18.5

Closing total152.5Under by 6.5

Season records: Seattle U and Stanford
SEA	This season	STAN
3-1	Record	4-0
1-3	ATS	2-2
3-1	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SEA 70–79 STAN · ✗ STAN (79%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SEA	37	40	77
STAN	41	28	69

1st half: SEA 37, STAN 41 (STAN by 4). The model had STAN by 5.3 and a total of 70.0 (actual 78).

Team stats

SEA		STAN
25-52 48%	Field goals	23-63 37%
7-16 44%	3-pointers	7-25 28%
20-24 83%	Free throws	16-25 64%
35 6 off	Rebounds	34 14 off
13	Assists	10
6	Steals	11
10	Blocks	5
15	Turnovers	12
18	Fouls	19
34	Points in paint	32
10	Fast-break points	8

Players

SEA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Will Heimbrodt F	35	13	5	2	5-14	1-3
Maleek Arington G	34	9	7	6	3-5	1-1
Brayden Maldonado G	33	8	5	1	1-6	0-1
Junseok Yeo F	29	15	4	0	5-9	3-6
Houran Dan C	18	11	4	1	3-5	0-0
Bench
John Christofilis G	14	8	1	1	3-4	1-2
Austin Maurer C	13	8	1	1	3-6	0-2
Miles Amos G	12	3	3	1	1-1	1-1
Brock Felder F	8	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Jojo Murphy G	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Jeremiah Harshman, JT White, Stratos Papastavrou, Yuto Kawashima, Eric Zheng, Ray Adams

STAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Benny Gealer G	35	9	3	2	3-7	3-6
Chisom Okpara F	33	14	4	3	5-14	1-3
Ebuka Okorie G	28	17	5	2	5-15	0-5
AJ Rohosy F	27	12	4	0	6-11	0-0
Aidan Cammann F	17	4	4	1	0-2	0-2
Bench
Jeremy Dent-Smith G	21	6	2	2	2-5	2-4
Ryan Agarwal G	14	2	0	0	1-4	0-1
Oskar Giltay C	10	2	5	0	0-1	0-0
Cameron Grant G	9	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Evan Stinson F	6	3	1	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Kristers Skrinda, Myles Jones, Ethan Kitch, Donavin Young, Anthony Batson Jr., Tallis Toure, Jaylen Thompson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	STAN -10.5	STAN -9.1	SEA +1.4	W SEA covered
Total	152.5	149.5	Under 3.0	W Under
Projected score	—	SEA 70.2 · STAN 79.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STAN -5.3	STAN -4.0
1H total	70.0	78
1H projected score	SEA 32.3 · STAN 37.7	SEA 37 · STAN 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA LLWL	1-3	25%	—	—
STAN LWLW	2-2	50%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: SEA away, as underdog; STAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1
STAN OOUO	3-1	75%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEAlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%
STANlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Seattle U

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEN	W 84-73	-13.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsCP	L 71-73	-10.5	L −12.5	164.5	U 144
Nov 12	vsEWU	W 94-67	-8.5	W +18.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 15	vsIDST	W 83-74	-11.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEN

W 84-73

−2.5

L 71-73

−12.5

EWU

W 94-67

+18.5

IDST

W 83-74

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEN

W 84-73

+20.5

L 71-73

−20.5

EWU

W 94-67

+12.5

IDST

W 83-74

+18.5

over 3under 1avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Stanford

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +12 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsPRST	W 89-79	-11.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsMONT	W 91-68	-12.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMTST	W 77-68	-14.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 18	vsUL	W 93-66	-20.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

−1.5

MONT

W 91-68

+10.5

MTST

W 77-68

−5.5

W 93-66

+6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

+23.5

MONT

W 91-68

+8.5

MTST

W 77-68

−3.5

W 93-66

+19.5

over 3under 1avg +12 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Seattle U Redhawks at Stanford Cardinal

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Seattle U

Stanford

Seattle U

Stanford