Sacramento State Hornets at California Golden Bears: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 10:00 PM ETHaas Pavilion · at California

Final

#92CALCalifornia91▲ winner

Closing lineCAL -21.5✓ CAL covered by 2.5

Closing total154.5Over by 3.5

Season records: Sacramento St and California
SAC	This season	CAL
1-3	Record	4-1
2-2	ATS	3-2
1-3	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SAC 67–86 CAL · ✓ CAL (95%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SAC	33	34	67
CAL	47	44	91

1st half: SAC 33, CAL 47 (CAL by 14). The model had CAL by 11.4 and a total of 71.8 (actual 80).

Team stats

SAC		CAL
18-67 27%	Field goals	33-65 51%
7-24 29%	3-pointers	15-38 39%
24-30 80%	Free throws	10-19 53%
43 18 off	Rebounds	42 10 off
10	Assists	20
3	Steals	7
1	Blocks	7
11	Turnovers	12
16	Fouls	28
20	Points in paint	32
7	Fast-break points	14

Players

SAC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mark Lavrenov F	40	14	8	0	3-12	0-0
Prophet Johnson G	36	12	11	2	4-11	1-4
Mikey Williams G	33	7	2	5	2-11	1-3
Shaqir O'Neal F	16	5	2	0	2-7	1-3
Jahni Summers G	14	4	1	1	1-4	0-2
Bench
Brandon Gardner F	22	19	6	0	6-12	4-5
Jayden Teat G	12	2	1	0	0-5	0-4
Arman Madi G	11	0	0	1	0-3	0-2
Taj Glover G	10	4	3	0	0-2	0-1
Romari Robinson G	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Isaiah Bronson G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Zach Anderson, Bear Cherry, Jeremiah Nyarko

CAL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dai Dai Ames G	31	16	4	4	7-14	2-8
Chris Bell F	28	21	1	2	7-11	3-7
Justin Pippen G	28	16	4	5	5-11	3-8
John Camden F	28	14	5	5	5-12	4-10
Lee Dort F	13	7	3	1	3-4	0-0
Bench
Rytis Petraitis F	20	7	7	0	3-3	1-1
Milos Ilic C	19	2	9	1	1-1	0-0
Semetri Carr G	18	7	2	2	2-5	2-3
Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut F	6	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Mantas Kocanas C	5	1	3	0	0-2	0-0
BJ Fisher G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Luke Butler G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Stephon Marbury II G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jovani Ruff, Nolan Dorsey, Jorell Clark, DeJuan Campbell, Sammie Yeanay

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CAL -21.5	CAL -19.2	SAC +2.3	L CAL covered
Total	154.5	153.2	Under 1.3	L Over
Projected score	—	SAC 67 · CAL 86.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CAL -11.4	CAL -14.0
1H total	71.8	80
1H projected score	SAC 30.2 · CAL 41.6	SAC 33 · CAL 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1
CAL WLWWL	3-2	60%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: SAC away, as underdog; CAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OUUU	1-3	25%	1-3
CAL UUUOU	1-4	20%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
CALlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SAC 0–1 CALCAL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SAC 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 24, 2024-25	SAC 77 @ CAL 83	CAL -14.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Sacramento St

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsUCSB	L 87-92	+7.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 179
Nov 14	@UCD	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 150
Nov 16	vsPRES	W 64-62	-6.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 18	@UCLA	L 48-79	+27.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCSB

L 87-92

+2.5

UCD

L 73-77

+0.5

PRES

W 64-62

−4.5

UCLA

L 48-79

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCSB

L 87-92

+17.5

UCD

L 73-77

−1.5

PRES

W 64-62

−24.5

UCLA

L 48-79

−19.5

over 1under 3avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin

California

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCSUB	W 87-60	-15.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 6	vsWRST	W 77-67	-14.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 10	vsCSUF	W 93-65	-22.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 13	@KSU	L 96-99	+6.5	W +3.5	164.5	O 195
Nov 18	vsPRES	W 67-57	-10.5	L −0.5	124.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUB

W 87-60

+11.5

WRST

W 77-67

−4.5

CSUF

W 93-65

+5.5

KSU

L 96-99

+3.5

PRES

W 67-57

−0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUB

W 87-60

−0.5

WRST

W 77-67

−4.5

CSUF

W 93-65

−4.5

KSU

L 96-99

+30.5

PRES

W 67-57

−0.5

over 1under 4avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Sacramento State Hornets at California Golden Bears

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Sacramento St

California

Sacramento St

California