Presbyterian Blue Hose at UCLA Bruins: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 10:30 PM ETPauley Pavilion · at UCLA

Final

#26UCLAUCLA AP #1986▲ winner

Closing lineUCLA -25.5✓ UCLA covered by 14.5

Closing total131.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Presbyterian and UCLA
PRES	This season	UCLA
2-4	Record	4-1
4-2	ATS	1-4
1-5	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PRES 54–80 UCLA · ✓ UCLA (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PRES	22	24	46
UCLA	41	45	86

1st half: PRES 22, UCLA 41 (UCLA by 19). The model had UCLA by 15.0 and a total of 62.7 (actual 63).

Team stats

PRES		UCLA
17-51 33%	Field goals	32-51 63%
2-20 10%	3-pointers	6-12 50%
10-15 67%	Free throws	16-24 67%
25 8 off	Rebounds	33 6 off
12	Assists	17
7	Steals	9
4	Blocks	1
17	Turnovers	11
17	Fouls	15
28	Points in paint	50
5	Fast-break points	11

Players

PRES	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jonah Pierce F	32	13	5	2	6-11	0-0
Jaylen Peterson F	30	4	6	0	1-4	0-0
Josh Pickett G	28	0	1	3	0-4	0-4
Triston Wilson G	28	9	2	4	2-8	0-5
Carl Parrish G	21	2	2	1	1-4	0-3
Bench
Iverson King G	21	5	2	1	2-7	1-3
Khalon Hudson G	18	6	4	0	3-6	0-1
JD Bowden G	12	7	1	1	2-5	1-2
Chidi Chiakwelu F	8	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Luke Allison G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Amare Anderson G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Erik Taylor, Augustine Ayelyine

UCLA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Skyy Clark G	25	22	3	1	9-11	1-2
Brandon Williams F	25	11	7	1	4-7	1-2
Donovan Dent G	24	14	1	5	5-9	0-2
Xavier Booker C	21	9	1	3	3-4	1-1
Eric Dailey Jr. F	18	7	4	1	3-3	1-1
Bench
Jamar Brown G	25	9	7	0	3-6	1-3
Trent Perry G	24	9	1	3	3-6	1-1
Steven Jamerson II F	16	3	1	3	1-2	0-0
Eric Freeny G	14	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Anthony Peoples Jr. F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jack Seidler G	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Christian Horry G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Tyler Bilodeau, Markell Alston, Evan Manjikian

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCLA -25.5	UCLA -25.1	PRES +0.4	L UCLA covered
Total	131.5	133.8	Over 2.3	W Over
Projected score	—	PRES 54.4 · UCLA 79.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCLA -15.0	UCLA -19.0
1H total	62.7	63
1H projected score	PRES 23.9 · UCLA 38.9	PRES 22 · UCLA 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRES WWLWW	4-2	67%	3-1	4-2
UCLA LLLLW	1-4	20%	1-3	1-3

Venue/role: PRES away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRES UUOUU	1-5	17%	2-4
UCLA OUUUU	1-4	20%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRESlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	1-5 17%
UCLAlast 5	4-1 80%	1-4 20%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Presbyterian

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −9.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAVY	L 55-76	+3.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 8	vsETSU	W 68-64	+6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 10	@GAST	W 63-61	+3.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 12	@SC	L 61-81	+16.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 16	@SAC	L 62-64	+6.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 18	@CAL	L 57-67	+10.5	W +0.5	124.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−17.5

ETSU

W 68-64

+10.5

GAST

W 63-61

+5.5

L 61-81

−3.5

SAC

L 62-64

+4.5

CAL

L 57-67

+0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−10.5

ETSU

W 68-64

−9.5

GAST

W 63-61

−17.5

L 61-81

+4.5

SAC

L 62-64

−24.5

CAL

L 57-67

−0.5

over 1under 5avg −9.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

UCLA

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −10.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −10.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsEWU	W 80-74	-29.5	L −23.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsPEPP	W 74-63	-29.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 10	vsWGA	W 83-62	-30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 145
Nov 14	vsARIZ	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 134
Nov 18	vsSAC	W 79-48	-27.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

−23.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−18.5

WGA

W 83-62

−9.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−2.5

SAC

W 79-48

+3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −10.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

+4.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−15.5

WGA

W 83-62

−1.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−19.5

SAC

W 79-48

−19.5

over 1under 4avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Presbyterian Blue Hose at UCLA Bruins

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Presbyterian

UCLA

Presbyterian

UCLA