Presbyterian Blue Hose at Georgia State Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 10, 7:00 PM ETGSU Convocation Center · at Georgia St

#183PRESPresbyterian63▲ winner

Final

#208GASTGeorgia St61final

Closing lineGAST -3.5✓ PRES covered by 5.5

Closing total141.5Under by 17.5

Season records: Presbyterian and Georgia St
PRES	This season	GAST
1-1	Record	0-2
1-1	ATS	1-1
0-2	O/U	0-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PRES 71–73 GAST · ✗ GAST (57%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PRES	25	38	63
GAST	35	26	61

1st half: PRES 25, GAST 35 (GAST by 10). The model had GAST by 1.0 and a total of 67.3 (actual 60).

Team stats

PRES		GAST
21-46 46%	Field goals	21-54 39%
6-15 40%	3-pointers	6-22 27%
15-19 79%	Free throws	13-18 72%
30 9 off	Rebounds	30 13 off
12	Assists	12
4	Steals	8
4	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	10
15	Fouls	13
26	Points in paint	22
6	Fast-break points	9

Players

PRES	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaylen Peterson F	33	10	8	1	5-7	0-0
Carl Parrish G	33	22	3	1	6-14	5-7
Jonah Pierce F	31	14	7	1	5-11	0-0
Erik Taylor G	29	11	2	6	3-6	1-4
Triston Wilson G	21	0	1	2	0-1	0-1
Bench
Josh Pickett G	27	0	0	1	0-3	0-2
Iverson King G	13	2	1	0	1-3	0-1
Chidi Chiakwelu F	9	4	2	0	1-1	0-0
Khalon Hudson G	2	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
JD Bowden G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Amare Anderson G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Augustine Ayelyine, Luke Allison

GAST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joah Chappelle F	33	23	6	1	8-13	2-4
Malachi Brown G	26	6	0	1	3-9	0-1
Christian Beam C	24	2	6	0	1-2	0-0
Isaiah Sherrard F	17	0	1	1	0-5	0-4
Jelani Hamilton G	4	5	2	1	1-2	1-2
Bench
Micah Tucker G	28	6	0	4	2-4	1-3
Ayouba Berthe G	22	4	1	3	1-5	0-4
Jakai Newton G	17	4	1	0	1-6	0-1
Anthony Enoh F	17	8	4	0	3-6	1-1
Chris Jones G	6	3	1	1	1-2	1-2
James Cooper F	6	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kwame Tanic, Trey Scott, Clash Peters, Manos Koveos

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GAST -3.5	GAST -2.0	PRES +1.5	W PRES covered
Total	141.5	143.6	Over 2.1	L Under
Projected score	—	PRES 70.8 · GAST 72.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GAST -1.0	GAST -10.0
1H total	67.3	60
1H projected score	PRES 33.1 · GAST 34.1	PRES 25 · GAST 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRES LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1
GAST LW	1-1	50%	—	—

Venue/role: PRES away, as underdog; GAST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRES UU	0-2	0%	1-1
GAST UU	0-2	0%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRESlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
GASTlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Presbyterian

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −10 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAVY	L 55-76	+3.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 8	vsETSU	W 68-64	+6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−17.5

ETSU

W 68-64

+10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−10.5

ETSU

W 68-64

−9.5

over 0under 2avg −10 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia St

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −21.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

over 0under 2avg −21.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Presbyterian Blue Hose at Georgia State Panthers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Presbyterian

Georgia St

Presbyterian

Georgia St