Presbyterian Blue Hose at California Golden Bears: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 10:00 PM ETHaas Pavilion · at California

Final

#92CALCalifornia67▲ winner

Closing lineCAL -10.5✓ PRES covered by 0.5

Closing total124.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Presbyterian and California
PRES	This season	CAL
2-3	Record	3-1
3-2	ATS	3-1
1-4	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PRES 65–84 CAL · ✓ CAL (95%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PRES	29	28	57
CAL	31	36	67

1st half: PRES 29, CAL 31 (CAL by 2). The model had CAL by 11.2 and a total of 69.7 (actual 60).

Team stats

PRES		CAL
21-56 38%	Field goals	26-51 51%
7-20 35%	3-pointers	6-17 35%
8-12 67%	Free throws	9-16 56%
34 16 off	Rebounds	30 11 off
14	Assists	11
4	Steals	2
4	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	11
15	Fouls	9
24	Points in paint	30
6	Fast-break points	2

Players

PRES	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Triston Wilson G	34	13	6	1	4-12	1-5
Carl Parrish G	34	16	5	3	5-16	5-11
Josh Pickett G	32	5	5	5	2-4	0-0
Jonah Pierce F	30	13	4	1	6-10	0-0
Jaylen Peterson F	20	6	2	1	3-3	0-0
Bench
Iverson King G	25	3	5	1	1-7	1-4
Chidi Chiakwelu F	10	1	2	1	0-2	0-0
JD Bowden G	8	0	0	1	0-2	0-0
Khalon Hudson G	5	0	3	0	0-0	0-0
Amare Anderson G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Luke Allison, Erik Taylor, Augustine Ayelyine

CAL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dai Dai Ames G	34	7	1	1	3-8	1-3
Justin Pippen G	34	4	3	6	1-3	0-1
Lee Dort F	32	15	8	1	7-9	0-0
Chris Bell F	31	14	2	0	6-12	2-6
John Camden F	30	20	4	1	6-12	2-6
Bench
Rytis Petraitis F	19	5	2	1	2-3	1-1
Semetri Carr G	12	0	1	1	0-1	0-0
Milos Ilic C	8	2	3	0	1-3	0-0

Did not play: Mantas Kocanas, Stephon Marbury II, Jovani Ruff, Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut, Sammie Yeanay, Nolan Dorsey, BJ Fisher, Jorell Clark, Luke Butler, DeJuan Campbell

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CAL -10.5	CAL -18.8	CAL +8.3	L PRES covered
Total	124.5	148.8	Over 24.3	L Under
Projected score	—	PRES 65 · CAL 83.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CAL -11.2	CAL -2.0
1H total	69.7	60
1H projected score	PRES 29.3 · CAL 40.5	PRES 29 · CAL 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRES LWWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	3-2
CAL WLWW	3-1	75%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: PRES away, as underdog; CAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRES UUUOU	1-4	20%	2-3
CAL UUUO	1-3	25%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRESlast 5	2-3 40%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%
CALlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Presbyterian

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −11.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAVY	L 55-76	+3.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 131
Nov 8	vsETSU	W 68-64	+6.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 10	@GAST	W 63-61	+3.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 12	@SC	L 61-81	+16.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 16	@SAC	L 62-64	+6.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 126

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−17.5

ETSU

W 68-64

+10.5

GAST

W 63-61

+5.5

L 61-81

−3.5

SAC

L 62-64

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

L 55-76

−10.5

ETSU

W 68-64

−9.5

GAST

W 63-61

−17.5

L 61-81

+4.5

SAC

L 62-64

−24.5

over 1under 4avg −11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

California

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg +5.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCSUB	W 87-60	-15.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 6	vsWRST	W 77-67	-14.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 10	vsCSUF	W 93-65	-22.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 13	@KSU	L 96-99	+6.5	W +3.5	164.5	O 195

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUB

W 87-60

+11.5

WRST

W 77-67

−4.5

CSUF

W 93-65

+5.5

KSU

L 96-99

+3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUB

W 87-60

−0.5

WRST

W 77-67

−4.5

CSUF

W 93-65

−4.5

KSU

L 96-99

+30.5

over 1under 3avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Presbyterian Blue Hose at California Golden Bears

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Presbyterian

California

Presbyterian

California