Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Stanford Cardinal: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 10:00 PM ETMaples Pavilion · at Stanford

Final

#85STANStanford93▲ winner

Closing lineSTAN -20.5✓ STAN covered by 6.5

Closing total139.5Over by 19.5

Season records: Louisiana and Stanford
UL	This season	STAN
1-3	Record	3-0
2-2	ATS	1-2
1-3	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UL 62–81 STAN · ✓ STAN (95%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UL	25	41	66
STAN	40	53	93

1st half: UL 25, STAN 40 (STAN by 15). The model had STAN by 10.9 and a total of 66.8 (actual 65).

Team stats

UL		STAN
27-55 49%	Field goals	27-56 48%
2-9 22%	3-pointers	11-31 35%
10-17 59%	Free throws	28-35 80%
27 6 off	Rebounds	38 11 off
4	Assists	14
3	Steals	4
0	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	10
29	Fouls	16
36	Points in paint	30
7	Fast-break points	8

Players

UL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dorian Finister G	31	12	6	0	4-9	0-1
Joshua Lewis F	30	16	5	0	8-14	0-1
Dariyus Woodson F	28	7	4	2	3-6	1-3
De'vion Lavergne G	16	7	1	0	3-4	0-1
Jeremiah Evans F	11	6	0	0	3-5	0-0
Bench
Jaxon Olvera G	27	15	3	0	5-11	1-2
Mike Collins G	17	2	1	0	1-4	0-1
Milan Mejia G	14	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Kyran Ratliff F	11	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Todd Jones Jr. F	11	1	0	1	0-1	0-0
Michael Mouton G	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Logan Myers, Rahman Olajuwon, Sean Elkinton, Christian Landry, Zeke Cook, Karris Bilal, Jamyron Keller

STAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ebuka Okorie G	34	26	2	5	6-10	3-5
Chisom Okpara F	26	22	5	1	7-10	1-3
Aidan Cammann F	25	7	5	3	2-4	0-0
Benny Gealer G	18	3	1	1	1-3	1-3
AJ Rohosy F	9	5	5	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Jeremy Dent-Smith G	25	2	3	4	1-7	0-5
Cameron Grant G	20	15	3	0	5-11	5-11
Ryan Agarwal G	15	7	7	0	1-3	1-2
Evan Stinson F	10	4	1	0	1-2	0-1
Oskar Giltay C	9	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Kristers Skrinda F	6	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Jaylen Thompson F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ethan Kitch G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Myles Jones, Donavin Young, Anthony Batson Jr., Tallis Toure

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	STAN -20.5	STAN -18.3	UL +2.2	L STAN covered
Total	139.5	142.7	Over 3.2	W Over
Projected score	—	UL 62.2 · STAN 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STAN -10.9	STAN -15.0
1H total	66.8	65
1H projected score	UL 28 · STAN 38.9	UL 25 · STAN 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL LWWL	2-2	50%	0-2	1-2
STAN LWL	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; STAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UUUO	1-3	25%	1-3
STAN OOU	2-1	67%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
STANlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisiana

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BALL	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 7	vsSELA	W 58-52	-3.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 11	vsTULN	L 62-66	+5.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	@MCN	L 62-88	+15.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−6.5

SELA

W 58-52

+2.5

TULN

L 62-66

+1.5

MCN

L 62-88

−10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−2.5

SELA

W 58-52

−25.5

TULN

L 62-66

−7.5

MCN

L 62-88

+15.5

over 1under 3avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Stanford

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsPRST	W 89-79	-11.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsMONT	W 91-68	-12.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsMTST	W 77-68	-14.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

−1.5

MONT

W 91-68

+10.5

MTST

W 77-68

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRST

W 89-79

+23.5

MONT

W 91-68

+8.5

MTST

W 77-68

−3.5

over 2under 1avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Stanford Cardinal

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Louisiana

Stanford

Louisiana

Stanford