Sacramento State Hornets at UCLA Bruins: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 10:30 PM ETPauley Pavilion · at UCLA

Final

#26UCLAUCLA AP #1979▲ winner

Closing lineUCLA -27.5✓ UCLA covered by 3.5

Closing total146.5Under by 19.5

Season records: Sacramento St and UCLA
SAC	This season	UCLA
1-2	Record	3-1
2-1	ATS	0-4
1-2	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SAC 58–86 UCLA · ✓ UCLA (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SAC	17	31	48
UCLA	42	37	79

1st half: SAC 17, UCLA 42 (UCLA by 25). The model had UCLA by 16.6 and a total of 67.8 (actual 59).

Team stats

SAC		UCLA
13-54 24%	Field goals	28-58 48%
3-24 13%	3-pointers	7-21 33%
19-30 63%	Free throws	16-24 67%
35 13 off	Rebounds	44 11 off
9	Assists	20
6	Steals	9
3	Blocks	3
13	Turnovers	15
25	Fouls	25
14	Points in paint	36
0	Fast-break points	13

Players

SAC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Prophet Johnson G	38	13	10	4	4-11	1-5
Mikey Williams G	34	9	4	3	2-14	0-3
Jahni Summers G	24	11	1	0	3-6	2-5
Shaqir O'Neal F	17	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Bear Cherry F	12	2	1	0	1-3	0-1
Bench
Mark Lavrenov F	29	10	10	0	2-8	0-2
Brandon Gardner F	17	3	2	1	1-4	0-2
Jayden Teat G	11	0	0	0	0-4	0-3
Arman Madi G	8	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Taj Glover G	6	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Romari Robinson G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Isaiah Bronson G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jeremiah Nyarko, Zach Anderson

UCLA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eric Dailey Jr. F	30	15	10	4	5-10	0-4
Trent Perry G	27	11	2	1	4-7	2-3
Jamar Brown G	19	10	5	3	3-5	1-2
Brandon Williams F	18	5	4	3	1-5	1-2
Steven Jamerson II F	10	0	3	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Donovan Dent G	24	5	1	7	2-9	0-3
Skyy Clark G	20	9	1	1	3-4	3-4
Xavier Booker C	19	12	8	0	6-8	0-1
Tyler Bilodeau F	18	6	4	1	1-5	0-1
Eric Freeny G	9	4	1	0	2-3	0-1
Jack Seidler G	2	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Christian Horry G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Anthony Peoples Jr. F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Evan Manjikian, Markell Alston

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCLA -27.5	UCLA -27.8	UCLA +0.3	W UCLA covered
Total	146.5	144.6	Under 1.9	W Under
Projected score	—	SAC 58.4 · UCLA 86.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCLA -16.6	UCLA -25.0
1H total	67.8	59
1H projected score	SAC 25.6 · UCLA 42.2	SAC 17 · UCLA 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	2-0
UCLA LLLL	0-4	0%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: SAC away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OUU	1-2	33%	1-2
UCLA OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
UCLAlast 4	3-1 75%	0-4 0%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SAC 0–1 UCLAUCLA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SAC 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 7, 2022-23	SAC 50 @ UCLA 76	UCLA -25.5	UCLA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Sacramento St

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsUCSB	L 87-92	+7.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 179
Nov 14	@UCD	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 150
Nov 16	vsPRES	W 64-62	-6.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 126

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCSB

L 87-92

+2.5

UCD

L 73-77

+0.5

PRES

W 64-62

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCSB

L 87-92

+17.5

UCD

L 73-77

−1.5

PRES

W 64-62

−24.5

over 1under 2avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

UCLA

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −13.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsEWU	W 80-74	-29.5	L −23.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 7	vsPEPP	W 74-63	-29.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 10	vsWGA	W 83-62	-30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 145
Nov 14	vsARIZ	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

−23.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−18.5

WGA

W 83-62

−9.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EWU

W 80-74

+4.5

PEPP

W 74-63

−15.5

WGA

W 83-62

−1.5

ARIZ

L 65-69

−19.5

over 1under 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Sacramento State Hornets at UCLA Bruins

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Sacramento St

UCLA

Sacramento St

UCLA