Cal State Fullerton Titans at Portland Pilots: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 10:00 PM ETChiles Center · at Portland

#312CSUFFullerton85final

Final

#169PORTPortland103▲ winner

Closing linePORT -6.5✓ PORT covered by 11.5

Closing total164.5Over by 23.5

Season records: Fullerton and Portland
CSUF	This season	PORT
0-3	Record	2-1
1-2	ATS	1-2
1-2	O/U	0-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CSUF 75–80 PORT · ✓ PORT (69%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CSUF	42	43	85
PORT	57	46	103

1st half: CSUF 42, PORT 57 (PORT by 15). The model had PORT by 3.3 and a total of 72.5 (actual 99).

Team stats

CSUF		PORT
32-67 48%	Field goals	40-63 63%
12-30 40%	3-pointers	11-21 52%
9-18 50%	Free throws	12-17 71%
29 10 off	Rebounds	34 6 off
22	Assists	24
6	Steals	9
0	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	13
14	Fouls	19
36	Points in paint	52
10	Fast-break points	16

Players

CSUF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Williams G	34	9	0	4	3-5	3-5
Joshua Ward G	26	17	5	0	5-11	3-5
Bryce Cofield G	23	11	4	6	5-10	0-3
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro G	22	10	1	0	4-9	1-4
Kendrick De Luna F	13	3	3	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Jaden Henderson G	26	15	1	8	5-12	3-6
Landon Seaman F	24	15	4	2	7-13	1-2
KJ Garris Jr. G	20	2	4	2	1-4	0-3
Davis White G	7	3	2	0	1-2	1-2
Ben Winker F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Matthew Quinlan G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cam Smith, Bailey Nunn, Nicholas Khatchikian, Karan Kolappa, Yesan Warren, Kidus Tilahun

PORT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joel Foxwell G	33	24	7	4	9-13	5-8
Garrett Nuckolls G	31	20	6	4	8-11	2-2
James O'Donnell F	25	14	8	1	6-7	0-0
Cameron Williams F	13	4	1	0	1-3	1-1
Matus Hronsky F	13	0	0	1	0-3	0-2
Bench
Mikah Ballew G	28	18	0	3	7-15	2-6
Timo George F	23	14	5	1	6-6	1-1
Dante Censori-Hercules G	20	3	4	4	1-1	0-0
Jermaine Ballisager Webb C	14	6	3	6	2-4	0-1

Did not play: Preston Lee, Marchelo Moreira, Kelson Gebbers, NaVaughn Long, Riley Parker, Carlin Briggs

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PORT -6.5	PORT -5.7	CSUF +0.8	L PORT covered
Total	164.5	154.9	Under 9.6	L Over
Projected score	—	CSUF 74.6 · PORT 80.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PORT -3.3	PORT -15.0
1H total	72.5	99
1H projected score	CSUF 34.6 · PORT 37.9	CSUF 42 · PORT 57

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSUF WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-2
PORT LWL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: CSUF away, as underdog; PORT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUF OUU	1-2	33%	0-3
PORT UUU	0-3	0%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUFlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
PORTlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Fullerton

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@WYO	L 82-92	+15.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 174
Nov 10	@CAL	L 65-93	+22.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 15	vsPAC	L 73-85	+6.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+5.5

CAL

L 65-93

−5.5

PAC

L 73-85

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+19.5

CAL

L 65-93

−4.5

PAC

L 73-85

−1.5

over 1under 2avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Portland

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −8.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −13.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsUAPB	W 83-74	-12.5	L −3.5	164.5	U 157
Nov 9	vsUCD	W 67-63	-1.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 130
Nov 15	@WYO	L 56-93	+11.5	L −25.5	160.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAPB

W 83-74

−3.5

UCD

W 67-63

+2.5

WYO

L 56-93

−25.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAPB

W 83-74

−7.5

UCD

W 67-63

−21.5

WYO

L 56-93

−11.5

over 0under 3avg −13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cal State Fullerton Titans at Portland Pilots

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Fullerton

Portland

Fullerton

Portland