San Francisco Dons vs Minnesota Golden Gophers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 5:30 PM ETSanford Pentagon · Neutral site

Final

#70MINNMinnesota65final

Closing lineMINN -1.5✓ SF covered by 13.5

Closing total140.5Over by 1.5

Season records: San Francisco and Minnesota
SF	This season	MINN
3-1	Record	4-1
2-2	ATS	1-4
1-3	O/U	0-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SF 69–72 MINN · ✗ MINN (59%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SF	34	43	77
MINN	27	38	65

1st half: SF 34, MINN 27 (SF by 7). The model had MINN by 1.5 and a total of 65.9 (actual 61).

Team stats

SF		MINN
26-53 49%	Field goals	22-46 48%
11-22 50%	3-pointers	6-14 43%
14-19 74%	Free throws	15-30 50%
33 10 off	Rebounds	27 9 off
13	Assists	9
3	Steals	7
1	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	12
20	Fouls	16
28	Points in paint	32
0	Fast-break points	7

Players

SF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Beasley G	37	24	2	4	8-13	4-6
Tyrone Riley IV G	36	14	6	0	6-13	1-3
Vukasin Masic G	23	2	2	1	1-3	0-1
Guillermo Diaz-Graham F	19	10	6	2	2-6	1-4
Junjie Wang F	8	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
David Fuchs F	23	11	6	1	3-6	1-1
Mookie Cook F	23	14	4	4	5-6	4-4
Veniamin Abosi F	22	2	2	1	1-4	0-2
Legend Smiley G	9	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Weilun Zhao, Sean Blakely Drummond, Saba Gigiberia, Aidan Braccia, Ndewedo Newbury, Isa Silva

MINN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cade Tyson G	39	14	4	1	4-8	1-2
Chansey Willis Jr. G	34	9	3	3	2-5	0-0
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson F	23	10	3	0	3-6	1-3
Isaac Asuma G	22	2	2	2	1-8	0-3
Nehemiah Turner F	9	1	2	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Langston Reynolds G	31	16	5	3	7-9	1-1
Bobby Durkin F	22	9	5	0	3-5	3-5
Grayson Grove F	20	4	2	0	2-3	0-0

Did not play: Max Lorenson, Maximus Gizzi, Kai Shinholster, RJ Spencer, BJ Omot, Chance Stephens, Robert Vaihola

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MINN -1.5	MINN -2.7	MINN +1.2	L SF covered
Total	140.5	140.7	Over 0.2	W Over
Projected score	—	SF 69 · MINN 71.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MINN -1.5	SF -7.0
1H total	65.9	61
1H projected score	SF 32.2 · MINN 33.7	SF 34 · MINN 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SF LLWW	2-2	50%	—	0-1
MINN LWLLL	1-4	20%	—	1-3

Venue/role: SF neutral site, as underdog; MINN neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF UUUO	1-3	25%	3-1
MINN UUUUU	0-5	0%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SFlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
MINNlast 5	4-1 80%	1-4 20%	0-5 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SF 1–0 MINNSF leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SF 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 26, 2023-24	MINN 58 vs SF 76	SF -5.5	SF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

San Francisco

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@MEM	L 70-76	+2.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 146
Nov 12	vsPRST	W 80-70	-13.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 150
Nov 15	vsBRAD	W 75-64	-9.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsNWST	W 84-64	-16.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−3.5

PRST

W 80-70

−3.5

BRAD

W 75-64

+1.5

NWST

W 84-64

+3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 70-76

−11.5

PRST

W 80-70

−4.5

BRAD

W 75-64

−7.5

NWST

W 84-64

+4.5

over 1under 3avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Minnesota

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-5

0% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-50%

U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGWEB	W 87-60	-28.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 8	vsALCN	W 95-50	-31.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 12	@MIZ	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 15	vsGB	W 72-65	-25.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 18	vsCHST	W 66-54	-27.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

+13.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−18.5

CHST

W 66-54

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

−7.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−9.5

CHST

W 66-54

−24.5

over 0under 5avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

San Francisco Dons vs Minnesota Golden Gophers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

San Francisco

Minnesota

San Francisco

Minnesota