Green Bay Phoenix at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 9:00 PM ETThe Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota · at Minnesota

Final

#70MINNMinnesota72▲ winner

Closing lineMINN -25.5✓ GB covered by 18.5

Closing total146.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Green Bay and Minnesota
GB	This season	MINN
0-3	Record	2-1
0-3	ATS	1-2
1-2	O/U	0-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GB 60–87 MINN · ✓ MINN (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
GB	27	34	4	65
MINN	23	38	11	72

1st half: GB 27, MINN 23 (GB by 4). The model had MINN by 16.0 and a total of 68.8 (actual 50).

Team stats

GB		MINN
22-54 41%	Field goals	23-55 42%
6-22 27%	3-pointers	6-22 27%
15-24 63%	Free throws	20-39 51%
37 7 off	Rebounds	41 11 off
13	Assists	17
3	Steals	10
3	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	8
25	Fouls	20
28	Points in paint	34
8	Fast-break points	9

Players

GB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Preston Ruedinger G	42	15	3	6	5-13	3-8
C.J. O'Hara G	41	11	8	1	4-6	0-1
Marcus Hall F	39	15	4	3	4-8	2-3
Maruan Cicic C	29	4	4	0	1-3	0-1
Mac Wrecke G	8	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Justin Allen G	37	12	5	3	5-13	0-4
Caden Wilkins F	21	6	3	0	2-8	1-4
LeBron Thomas G	7	2	2	0	1-3	0-1
Ramel Bethea F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Josh Hines, Brady Fitzgerald, Dontrell Hewlett, Keegan Van Kauwenberg, Vukasin Todorovic, Trey Schachter, Rob Stroud

MINN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaac Asuma G	42	9	3	7	2-6	2-5
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson F	39	11	11	2	5-12	1-4
Cade Tyson G	37	27	5	1	7-14	3-5
Chansey Willis Jr. G	37	8	4	5	3-8	0-3
Robert Vaihola F	18	4	5	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Langston Reynolds G	24	5	4	1	2-5	0-1
Grayson Grove F	16	4	6	1	2-3	0-0
Bobby Durkin F	12	4	0	0	1-6	0-4

Did not play: Nehemiah Turner, Kai Shinholster, Max Lorenson, Maximus Gizzi, RJ Spencer, BJ Omot, Chance Stephens

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MINN -25.5	MINN -26.7	MINN +1.2	L GB covered
Total	146.5	146.9	Over 0.4	L Under
Projected score	—	GB 60.1 · MINN 86.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MINN -16.0	GB -4.0
1H total	68.8	50
1H projected score	GB 26.4 · MINN 42.4	GB 27 · MINN 23

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LLL	0-3	0%	0-3	0-3
MINN LWL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; MINN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UOU	1-2	33%	0-3
MINN UUU	0-3	0%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GBlast 3	0-3 0%	0-3 0%	1-2 33%
MINNlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GB 0–1 MINNMINN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · GB 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 22, 2021-22	GB 56 @ MINN 72	MINN -16.5	GB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Green Bay

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U O U

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@KU	L 51-94	+30.5	L −12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@BUF	L 76-83	+3.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 13	@STMN	L 61-80	+13.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-94

−12.5

BUF

L 76-83

−3.5

STMN

L 61-80

−5.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-94

−7.5

BUF

L 76-83

+11.5

STMN

L 61-80

−9.5

over 1under 2avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Minnesota

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGWEB	W 87-60	-28.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 8	vsALCN	W 95-50	-31.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 12	@MIZ	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

+13.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

−7.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

over 0under 3avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Green Bay Phoenix at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Green Bay

Minnesota

Green Bay

Minnesota