Minnesota Golden Gophers at Missouri Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ETMizzou Arena · at Missouri

#70MINNMinnesota60final

Final

#54MIZMissouri83▲ winner

Closing lineMIZ -7.5✓ MIZ covered by 15.5

Closing total158.5Under by 15.5

Season records: Minnesota and Missouri
MINN	This season	MIZ
2-0	Record	3-0
1-1	ATS	2-1
0-2	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MINN 77–80 MIZ · ✓ MIZ (60%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MINN	30	30	60
MIZ	32	51	83

1st half: MINN 30, MIZ 32 (MIZ by 2). The model had MIZ by 1.6 and a total of 73.2 (actual 62).

Team stats

MINN		MIZ
23-54 43%	Field goals	29-49 59%
5-23 22%	3-pointers	11-22 50%
9-17 53%	Free throws	14-20 70%
34 14 off	Rebounds	25 3 off
11	Assists	15
3	Steals	7
0	Blocks	2
11	Turnovers	9
18	Fouls	19
26	Points in paint	32
2	Fast-break points	9

Players

MINN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cade Tyson G	36	17	2	2	6-12	0-4
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson F	35	6	12	2	3-9	0-2
Isaac Asuma G	34	13	0	2	4-11	3-9
Chansey Willis Jr. G	31	9	4	3	4-8	1-3
Robert Vaihola F	24	1	6	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
Langston Reynolds G	18	7	3	0	3-6	0-0
Bobby Durkin F	14	5	3	1	2-6	1-5
Grayson Grove F	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Kai Shinholster G	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: BJ Omot, Chance Stephens, Nehemiah Turner, Max Lorenson, Maximus Gizzi, RJ Spencer

MIZ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mark Mitchell Jr. G	36	18	6	6	6-11	0-3
Anthony Robinson II G	26	10	1	3	3-6	2-3
Sebastian Mack G	21	14	0	1	5-8	2-3
Shawn Phillips Jr. C	13	0	1	1	0-1	0-0
Jevon Porter F	11	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Bench
Jacob Crews G	27	14	8	1	5-8	4-6
Jayden Stone G	23	13	3	0	4-7	1-4
Luke Northweather F	20	6	1	0	2-2	2-2
T.O. Barrett F	17	8	3	2	4-5	0-0
Nicholas Randall F	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Aaron Rowe, Trent Burns, Annor Boateng, Trent Pierce

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MIZ -7.5	MIZ -3.0	MINN +4.5	L MIZ covered
Total	158.5	156.3	Under 2.2	W Under
Projected score	—	MINN 76.7 · MIZ 79.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MIZ -1.6	MIZ -2.0
1H total	73.2	62
1H projected score	MINN 35.8 · MIZ 37.4	MINN 30 · MIZ 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN LW	1-1	50%	—	—
MIZ WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: MINN away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN UU	0-2	0%	2-0
MIZ UOO	2-1	67%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINNlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
MIZlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MINN 0–1 MIZMIZ leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MINN 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2023-24	MIZ 70 @ MINN 68	MINN +2.5	MINN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Minnesota

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGWEB	W 87-60	-28.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 8	vsALCN	W 95-50	-31.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

+13.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

−7.5

over 0under 2avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Missouri

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@HOW	W 88-67	-20.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 155
Nov 7	vsSEMO	W 89-84	-25.5	L −20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 9	vsVMI	W 106-68	-23.5	W +14.5	161.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOW

W 88-67

+0.5

SEMO

W 89-84

−20.5

VMI

W 106-68

+14.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOW

W 88-67

−3.5

SEMO

W 89-84

+15.5

VMI

W 106-68

+12.5

over 2under 1avg +8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Missouri Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Minnesota

Missouri

Minnesota

Missouri