St. Thomas Tommies vs Cal State Fullerton Titans: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 5:30 PM ETChiles Center · Neutral site

#212STMNSt Thomas80final

Final

#312CSUFFullerton88▲ winner

Closing lineSTMN -11.5✓ CSUF covered by 19.5

Closing total162.5Over by 5.5

Season records: St Thomas and Fullerton
STMN	This season	CSUF
4-2	Record	0-4
2-4	ATS	1-3
3-3	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: STMN 85–73 CSUF · ✗ STMN (85%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
STMN	37	43	80
CSUF	33	55	88

1st half: STMN 37, CSUF 33 (STMN by 4). The model had STMN by 7.3 and a total of 73.7 (actual 70).

Team stats

STMN		CSUF
28-69 41%	Field goals	28-60 47%
8-33 24%	3-pointers	9-29 31%
16-17 94%	Free throws	23-25 92%
35 9 off	Rebounds	36 6 off
14	Assists	19
6	Steals	6
3	Blocks	3
9	Turnovers	10
21	Fouls	19
38	Points in paint	36
16	Fast-break points	22

Players

STMN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nolan Minessale G	34	26	5	5	8-22	0-7
Nick Janowski G	33	14	5	2	4-9	2-6
Ben Oosterbaan F	27	9	4	0	4-6	1-3
Carter Bjerke F	16	5	4	2	2-10	1-7
Austin Herro G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Ryan Dufault G	27	2	3	3	1-4	0-0
Isaiah Johnson-Arigu F	25	15	5	2	5-10	3-7
Hayden Tibbits G	13	5	1	0	2-4	1-2
Jermaine Coleman F	11	2	1	0	1-2	0-1
Ryan Lafferty G	11	2	2	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Tim Franks, Kyle Counts, Tommy Humphries Jr., Adam Tauer, Luka Momcilovic, Jack Tauer

CSUF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Williams G	35	10	9	4	3-9	2-6
Joshua Ward G	34	20	4	6	5-12	0-4
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro G	33	12	4	2	4-9	2-5
Bryce Cofield G	18	13	3	3	5-9	3-6
Kendrick De Luna F	18	4	3	1	1-1	0-0
Bench
Landon Seaman F	21	12	4	1	4-7	0-1
Jaden Henderson G	19	2	4	1	1-5	0-2
KJ Garris Jr. G	13	12	3	1	4-6	1-3
Davis White G	9	3	0	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Kidus Tilahun, Yesan Warren, Bailey Nunn, Karan Kolappa, Cam Smith, Nicholas Khatchikian, Matthew Quinlan, Ben Winker

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	STMN -11.5	STMN -11.9	STMN +0.4	L CSUF covered
Total	162.5	157.4	Under 5.1	L Over
Projected score	—	STMN 84.6 · CSUF 72.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STMN -7.3	STMN -4.0
1H total	73.7	70
1H projected score	STMN 40.5 · CSUF 33.2	STMN 37 · CSUF 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
STMN LLWWL	2-4	33%	0-1	2-2
CSUF WLLL	1-3	25%	—	1-3

Venue/role: STMN neutral site, as favorite; CSUF neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
STMN OUUOU	3-3	50%	4-2
CSUF OUUO	2-2	50%	0-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STMNlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
CSUFlast 4	0-4 0%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Thomas

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsUNCO	W 73-72	-4.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−12.5

over 3under 3avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fullerton

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +9.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@WYO	L 82-92	+15.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 174
Nov 10	@CAL	L 65-93	+22.5	L −5.5	162.5	U 158
Nov 15	vsPAC	L 73-85	+6.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 158
Nov 21	@PORT	L 85-103	+6.5	L −11.5	164.5	O 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+5.5

CAL

L 65-93

−5.5

PAC

L 73-85

−5.5

PORT

L 85-103

−11.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WYO

L 82-92

+19.5

CAL

L 65-93

−4.5

PAC

L 73-85

−1.5

PORT

L 85-103

+23.5

over 2under 2avg +9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St. Thomas Tommies vs Cal State Fullerton Titans

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

St Thomas

Fullerton

St Thomas

Fullerton