Northern Colorado Bears vs St. Thomas Tommies: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 7:30 PM ETChiles Center · Neutral site

#219UNCON Colorado72final

Final

#212STMNSt Thomas73▲ winner

Closing lineSTMN -4.5✓ UNCO covered by 3.5

Closing total157.5Under by 12.5

Season records: N Colorado and St Thomas
UNCO	This season	STMN
1-0	Record	3-2
1-0	ATS	2-3
1-0	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNCO 78–79 STMN · ✓ STMN (52%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNCO	36	36	72
STMN	29	44	73

1st half: UNCO 36, STMN 29 (UNCO by 7). The model had STMN by 0.1 and a total of 73.5 (actual 65).

Team stats

UNCO		STMN
24-53 45%	Field goals	28-64 44%
7-24 29%	3-pointers	7-26 27%
17-21 81%	Free throws	10-16 63%
33 7 off	Rebounds	31 11 off
17	Assists	12
3	Steals	10
3	Blocks	2
18	Turnovers	11
19	Fouls	18
34	Points in paint	42
2	Fast-break points	9

Players

UNCO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Quinn Denker G	36	21	1	6	6-11	2-6
Brock Wisne F	33	10	7	2	4-11	0-1
Ibu Yamazaki F	32	17	2	2	6-12	3-6
Zach Bloch G	23	2	4	1	0-1	0-1
Ariik Mawien G	12	0	2	0	0-2	0-2
Bench
Ring Nyeri F	30	5	6	2	2-6	1-4
Vincent Delano G	17	7	0	2	2-4	1-3
Egan Shields C	14	8	7	2	3-4	0-0
Chancellor White G	3	2	1	0	1-2	0-1

Did not play: Will Dixion III, Tanner Braketa, Steven Ramirez Jr., Kaden Ericksen, Hunter Caldwell, Walker Asp, William Humer

STMN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nolan Minessale G	35	20	5	5	8-14	2-6
Nick Janowski G	29	17	5	0	6-13	3-6
Carter Bjerke F	27	5	2	1	1-7	0-5
Ben Oosterbaan F	26	10	4	1	4-6	2-4
Austin Herro G	25	5	3	2	1-4	0-1
Bench
Isaiah Johnson-Arigu F	21	8	3	1	4-12	0-3
Ryan Dufault G	19	8	3	1	4-4	0-0
Ryan Lafferty G	10	0	1	1	0-2	0-0
Jermaine Coleman F	8	0	1	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Tim Franks, Jack Tauer, Luka Momcilovic, Kyle Counts, Tommy Humphries Jr., Adam Tauer, Hayden Tibbits

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	STMN -4.5	STMN -0.5	UNCO +4.0	W UNCO covered
Total	157.5	157.0	Under 0.5	W Under
Projected score	—	UNCO 78.2 · STMN 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STMN -0.1	UNCO -7.0
1H total	73.5	65
1H projected score	UNCO 36.7 · STMN 36.8	UNCO 36 · STMN 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UNCO W	1-0	100%	—	—
STMN LLLWW	2-3	40%	—	2-1

Venue/role: UNCO neutral site, as underdog; STMN neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCO O	1-0	100%	1-0
STMN OOUUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCOlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	1-0 100%
STMNlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNCO 0–1 STMNSTMN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UNCO 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 4, 2024-25	STMN 87 @ UNCO 75	UNCO -4.5	STMN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Colorado

1 game played

Straight up

1-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-0

100% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-0

100% overs · avg +15.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-0100%

1 of 1 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-0100%

1 of 1 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-0100%

1 of 1 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 15	@PEPP	W 88-81	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PEPP

W 88-81

+5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 0avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PEPP

W 88-81

+15.5

over 1under 0avg +15.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

St Thomas

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

over 3under 2avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Colorado vs St Thomas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Colorado

St Thomas

N Colorado

St Thomas