Pennsylvania Quakers at Drexel Dragons: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ETDaskalakis Athletic Center · at Drexel

#137PENNPenn84▲ winner

Final

#262DREXDrexel68final

Closing lineDREX -4.5✓ PENN covered by 20.5

Closing total152.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Penn and Drexel
PENN	This season	DREX
1-2	Record	1-3
1-2	ATS	1-3
2-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PENN 72–75 DREX · ✗ DREX (63%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PENN	43	41	84
DREX	38	30	68

1st half: PENN 43, DREX 38 (PENN by 5). The model had DREX by 2.1 and a total of 68.9 (actual 81).

Team stats

PENN		DREX
27-54 50%	Field goals	27-64 42%
8-22 36%	3-pointers	7-18 39%
22-28 79%	Free throws	7-17 41%
40 11 off	Rebounds	33 14 off
15	Assists	8
5	Steals	5
1	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	9
16	Fouls	19
28	Points in paint	36
16	Fast-break points	4

Players

PENN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Power F	37	18	4	3	5-11	1-4
Ethan Roberts G	35	30	8	2	11-18	2-6
AJ Levine G	32	7	5	7	2-4	1-3
Augustus Gerhart F	28	7	7	0	3-5	0-0
Michael Zanoni G	26	12	5	0	3-10	2-6
Bench
Dalton Scantlebury F	12	2	2	1	0-2	0-0
Lucas Lueth F	12	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Cam Thrower G	8	8	1	0	3-4	2-3
Niklas Polonowski G	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Dylan Williams G	5	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Payton Kamin, Jay Jones, Ryan Altman, William Kruse, Michelangelo Oberti, Bradyn Foster, Alex Massung, Johnnie Walter, Chris Ubochi

DREX	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Shane Blakeney G	38	11	0	3	5-12	1-3
Kevon Vanderhorst G	33	7	3	4	3-8	0-2
Eli Beard G	24	6	2	0	1-7	1-4
Villiam Garcia Adsten G	17	4	5	1	2-6	0-1
Martin de LaPorterie F	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Josh Reed G	26	21	5	0	9-14	2-2
Garfield Turner F	19	2	7	0	1-2	0-0
Victor Panov F	15	8	4	0	3-7	2-3
Horace Simmons Jr. F	14	6	1	0	2-5	1-3
Ralph Akuta F	8	3	0	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Ignacio Campoy Galvez, Clem Edomwonyin, Max Davis, Dillon Tingler, Moses Hipps

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DREX -4.5	DREX -3.8	PENN +0.7	W PENN covered
Total	152.5	147.0	Under 5.5	W Under
Projected score	—	PENN 71.6 · DREX 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DREX -2.1	PENN -5.0
1H total	68.9	81
1H projected score	PENN 33.4 · DREX 35.5	PENN 43 · DREX 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PENN LLW	1-2	33%	0-2	1-1
DREX LLLW	1-3	25%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: PENN away, as underdog; DREX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PENN OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
DREX OOUU	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PENNlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
DREXlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PENN 1–1 DREXSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · PENN 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2024-25	PENN 47 vs DREX 60	DREX -2.5	DREX W
Nov 15, 2022-23	PENN 64 @ DREX 59	DREX +2.5	PENN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Penn

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@AMER	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 11	@PROV	L 81-106	+19.5	L −5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 17	vsJOES	W 83-74	+5.5	W +14.5	163.5	U 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

−7.5

PROV

L 81-106

−5.5

JOES

W 83-74

+14.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

+7.5

PROV

L 81-106

+14.5

JOES

W 83-74

−6.5

over 2under 1avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Drexel

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@JOES	L 65-76	+9.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 11	@COLG	L 83-90	+3.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSYR	L 50-80	+11.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsNJIT	W 75-43	-13.5	W +18.5	138.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 65-76

−1.5

COLG

L 83-90

−3.5

SYR

L 50-80

−18.5

NJIT

W 75-43

+18.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 65-76

+1.5

COLG

L 83-90

+29.5

SYR

L 50-80

−13.5

NJIT

W 75-43

−20.5

over 2under 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pennsylvania Quakers at Drexel Dragons

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Penn

Drexel

Penn

Drexel