South Alabama Jaguars at UAB Blazers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 7:30 PM ETBartow Arena · at UAB

Final

#102UABUAB80▲ winner

Closing lineUAB -7.5✓ UAB covered by 0.5

Closing total149.5Over by 2.5

Season records: South Alabama and UAB
USA	This season	UAB
5-0	Record	2-2
2-3	ATS	2-2
3-2	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: USA 71–81 UAB · ✓ UAB (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
USA	26	46	72
UAB	36	44	80

1st half: USA 26, UAB 36 (UAB by 10). The model had UAB by 6.1 and a total of 71.2 (actual 62).

Team stats

USA		UAB
25-53 47%	Field goals	28-61 46%
6-19 32%	3-pointers	11-33 33%
16-27 59%	Free throws	13-21 62%
29 6 off	Rebounds	42 15 off
12	Assists	25
8	Steals	1
0	Blocks	3
3	Turnovers	9
15	Fouls	19
34	Points in paint	28
6	Fast-break points	11

Players

USA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Adam Olsen F	37	18	2	1	5-12	4-10
Chaze Harris G	36	25	4	4	10-17	0-0
Randy Brady F	32	7	8	0	2-3	1-1
Peyton Law F	25	9	4	0	4-6	0-0
Jayden Cooper G	12	0	0	2	0-4	0-3
Bench
Brian Hawthorne G	25	7	4	4	2-6	0-2
Stephen Williams F	14	3	3	0	1-1	0-0
Hantz Louis-Jeune G	10	0	1	1	0-2	0-2
JJ Wheat G	8	3	0	0	1-2	1-1
John Broom G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Maxwell Land, Desmond Williams, Samuel Shoptaw

UAB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chance Westry G	35	10	5	11	2-9	0-5
Daniel Rivera F	34	13	8	0	6-9	0-0
Jacob Meyer G	30	24	2	4	9-18	6-12
Ahmad Robinson G	30	12	4	5	4-10	4-9
Evan Chatman F	19	7	12	2	1-1	0-0
Bench
KyeRon Lindsay-Martin F	27	11	8	0	5-7	0-0
Dayjaun Anderson G	10	3	0	1	1-4	1-4
Salim London G	10	0	1	2	0-2	0-2
Quaran McPherson G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Justin Holloway, Jorden Pittman, Joao Das Chagas, Ari Gooch, Lance Carr, Joey Kahn

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UAB -7.5	UAB -10.3	UAB +2.8	W UAB covered
Total	149.5	152.0	Over 2.5	W Over
Projected score	—	USA 70.9 · UAB 81.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UAB -6.1	UAB -10.0
1H total	71.2	62
1H projected score	USA 32.6 · UAB 38.6	USA 26 · UAB 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA WLLLW	2-3	40%	2-0	2-0
UAB WLLW	2-2	50%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: USA away, as underdog; UAB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA UOUOO	3-2	60%	5-0
UAB OOUU	2-2	50%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USAlast 5	5-0 100%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
UABlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

USA 0–1 UABUAB leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · USA 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 4, 2022-23	USA 68 @ UAB 76	UAB -13.5	USA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

South Alabama

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TOL	W 76-74	+2.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 6	vsALCN	W 76-70	-18.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 13	vsCMU	W 66-64	-5.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsCOPP	W 72-62	-18.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 134
Nov 19	@JXST	W 71-65	+2.5	W +8.5	135.5	O 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOL

W 76-74

+4.5

ALCN

W 76-70

−12.5

CMU

W 66-64

−3.5

COPP

W 72-62

−8.5

JXST

W 71-65

+8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOL

W 76-74

−0.5

ALCN

W 76-70

+4.5

CMU

W 66-64

−12.5

COPP

W 72-62

+0.5

JXST

W 71-65

+0.5

over 3under 2avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UAB

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMVSU	W 106-55	-34.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 161
Nov 7	@NCSU	L 70-94	+19.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 164
Nov 11	vsALST	L 74-77	-19.5	L −22.5	164.5	U 151
Nov 14	vsHPU	W 91-74	+1.5	W +18.5	168.5	U 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MVSU

W 106-55

+16.5

NCSU

L 70-94

−4.5

ALST

L 74-77

−22.5

HPU

W 91-74

+18.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MVSU

W 106-55

+15.5

NCSU

L 70-94

+1.5

ALST

L 74-77

−13.5

HPU

W 91-74

−3.5

over 2under 2avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Alabama Jaguars at UAB Blazers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

South Alabama

UAB

South Alabama

UAB