Jackson State Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 8:00 PM ETBud Walton Arena · at Arkansas

#280JKSTJackson St61final

Final

#18ARKArkansas AP #21115▲ winner

Closing lineARK -29.5✓ ARK covered by 24.5

Closing total159.5Over by 16.5

Season records: Jackson St and Arkansas
JKST	This season	ARK
0-4	Record	4-1
1-3	ATS	2-3
3-1	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: JKST 65–92 ARK · ✓ ARK (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
JKST	19	42	61
ARK	47	68	115

1st half: JKST 19, ARK 47 (ARK by 28). The model had ARK by 16.1 and a total of 73.6 (actual 66).

Team stats

JKST		ARK
22-64 34%	Field goals	39-61 64%
9-27 33%	3-pointers	9-18 50%
8-11 73%	Free throws	28-36 78%
27 12 off	Rebounds	38 9 off
15	Assists	24
2	Steals	14
2	Blocks	7
20	Turnovers	6
25	Fouls	15
20	Points in paint	56
4	Fast-break points	34

Players

JKST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kobe Butler F	29	2	3	1	1-7	0-1
Jayme Mitchell Jr. G	19	7	2	1	1-7	1-3
Ebo Wilson C	19	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Dorian McMillian G	17	9	0	0	4-11	1-5
Daeshun Ruffin G	8	0	2	2	0-3	0-0
Bench
Delyle Williams G	28	7	6	6	3-9	0-2
Kedrick Simmons F	24	7	1	2	3-7	1-3
Tamarion Hoover G	21	19	3	3	6-11	4-9
Devin Ree F	17	5	3	0	2-3	1-2
Cael Jones G	9	3	1	0	1-2	1-1
Deyan Kolev F	9	2	1	0	1-4	0-1

Did not play: Jalen Tatum, Mike Williams, Raevon Thomas, Keiveon Hunt, Dionjahe Thomas

ARK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
DJ Wagner G	28	16	0	7	6-6	2-2
Nick Pringle F	22	4	5	3	0-0	0-0
Darius Acuff Jr. G	22	10	0	2	4-9	2-4
Trevon Brazile F	20	8	7	1	2-4	0-1
Karter Knox G	18	17	10	1	5-10	2-3
Bench
Billy Richmond III G	24	14	5	2	6-9	0-1
Meleek Thomas G	18	13	2	3	4-6	2-3
Isaiah Sealy F	15	10	4	2	4-4	0-0
Malique Ewin F	14	21	3	3	8-9	1-1
Jaden Karuletwa G	8	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Amere Brown G	4	1	0	0	0-2	0-1
Elmir Dzafic C	4	1	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ayden Kelley G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Karim Rtail, Paulo Semedo

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ARK -29.5	ARK -27.0	JKST +2.5	L ARK covered
Total	159.5	157.2	Under 2.3	L Over
Projected score	—	JKST 65.1 · ARK 92.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ARK -16.1	ARK -28.0
1H total	73.6	66
1H projected score	JKST 28.7 · ARK 44.9	JKST 19 · ARK 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JKST LWLL	1-3	25%	1-3	1-3
ARK WLWLL	2-3	40%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: JKST away, as underdog; ARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
JKST OOUO	3-1	75%	0-4
ARK OUUUU	1-4	20%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JKSTlast 4	0-4 0%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%
ARKlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jackson St

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −12.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ILL	L 55-113	+28.5	L −29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 6	@LOU	L 70-106	+38.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 15	@LT	L 51-68	+8.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@AUB	L 66-112	+30.5	L −15.5	156.5	O 178

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

−29.5

LOU

L 70-106

+2.5

L 51-68

−8.5

AUB

L 66-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

+10.5

LOU

L 70-106

+10.5

L 51-68

−27.5

AUB

L 66-112

+21.5

over 3under 1avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arkansas

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −7.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-420%

O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSOU	W 109-77	-26.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 186
Nov 8	@MSU	L 66-69	+2.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 11	vsCARK	W 93-56	-35.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 149
Nov 14	vsSAM	W 79-75	-24.5	L −20.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 18	vsWIN	W 84-83	-23.5	L −22.5	168.5	U 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SOU

W 109-77

+5.5

MSU

L 66-69

−0.5

CARK

W 93-56

+1.5

SAM

W 79-75

−20.5

WIN

W 84-83

−22.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SOU

W 109-77

+35.5

MSU

L 66-69

−20.5

CARK

W 93-56

−9.5

SAM

W 79-75

−4.5

WIN

W 84-83

−1.5

over 1under 4avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Jackson St @ Arkansas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Jackson St

Arkansas

Jackson St

Arkansas