Georgia State Panthers at South Dakota State Jackrabbits: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 8:00 PM ETFirst Bank & Trust Arena · at S Dakota St

#208GASTGeorgia St58final

Final

#201SDSTS Dakota St105▲ winner

Closing lineSDST -12.5✓ SDST covered by 34.5

Closing total143.5Over by 19.5

Season records: Georgia St and S Dakota St
GAST	This season	SDST
0-4	Record	1-2
2-2	ATS	3-0
0-4	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GAST 68–79 SDST · ✓ SDST (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GAST	19	39	58
SDST	53	52	105

1st half: GAST 19, SDST 53 (SDST by 34). The model had SDST by 6.2 and a total of 68.7 (actual 72).

Team stats

GAST		SDST
17-51 33%	Field goals	37-60 62%
6-32 19%	3-pointers	14-30 47%
18-27 67%	Free throws	17-22 77%
22 4 off	Rebounds	43 9 off
10	Assists	28
6	Steals	7
1	Blocks	0
12	Turnovers	10
21	Fouls	21
20	Points in paint	44
0	Fast-break points	9

Players

GAST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Micah Tucker G	33	4	2	4	1-6	0-3
Malachi Brown G	28	15	2	2	6-12	2-7
Joah Chappelle F	25	2	2	0	1-5	0-1
Christian Beam C	23	7	4	0	3-3	0-0
Jakai Newton G	17	5	3	1	2-8	1-5
Bench
Anthony Enoh F	21	4	2	1	1-4	1-4
Jelani Hamilton G	19	21	1	1	3-6	2-5
Ayouba Berthe G	17	0	0	1	0-4	0-4
Trey Scott F	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Chris Jones G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Isaiah Sherrard F	4	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
James Cooper F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kwame Tanic, Clash Peters, Manos Koveos

SDST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaden Jackson G	29	14	5	5	5-13	2-8
Kalen Garry G	26	0	6	6	0-3	0-1
Joe Sayler G	25	15	5	6	6-10	3-6
Matthew Mors F	23	18	4	0	7-11	2-5
Alec Squires C	22	8	3	4	3-3	0-0
Bench
Trey Buchanan G	18	15	2	2	5-6	5-6
Bubz Alvarez G	17	7	5	0	2-2	1-1
Luke Haertle G	15	4	0	3	1-2	0-0
Damon Wilkinson F	13	17	7	1	6-6	0-0
Caleb Delzell F	5	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Jaden Rogers G	3	2	1	0	0-0	0-0
Andrell Burton Jr. G	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Jadyn Cascio Jensen G	2	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Davis Kern

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SDST -12.5	SDST -10.6	GAST +1.9	L SDST covered
Total	143.5	146.6	Over 3.1	W Over
Projected score	—	GAST 68 · SDST 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDST -6.2	SDST -34.0
1H total	68.7	72
1H projected score	GAST 31.2 · SDST 37.5	GAST 19 · SDST 53

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LWLW	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1
SDST WWW	3-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; SDST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UUUU	0-4	0%	0-4
SDST UUO	1-2	33%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASTlast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	0-4 0%
SDSTlast 3	1-2 33%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia St

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −17.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

over 0under 4avg −17.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

S Dakota St

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

W L L

2 straight losses1 of 3 won

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRMK	W 75-66	-6.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 9	@UNI	L 58-65	+10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 12	@ORE	L 69-83	+16.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

+2.5

UNI

L 58-65

+3.5

ORE

L 69-83

+2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

−2.5

UNI

L 58-65

−27.5

ORE

L 69-83

+6.5

over 1under 2avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia St @ S Dakota St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia St

S Dakota St

Georgia St

S Dakota St