Samford Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 8:00 PM ETBud Walton Arena · at Arkansas

#184SAMSamford75final

Final

#18ARKArkansas AP #2179▲ winner

Closing lineARK -24.5✓ SAM covered by 20.5

Closing total158.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Samford and Arkansas
SAM	This season	ARK
2-1	Record	2-1
1-2	ATS	2-1
2-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SAM 70–93 ARK · ✓ ARK (98%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SAM	35	40	75
ARK	45	34	79

1st half: SAM 35, ARK 45 (ARK by 10). The model had ARK by 13.7 and a total of 76.5 (actual 80).

Team stats

SAM		ARK
28-68 41%	Field goals	28-62 45%
10-29 34%	3-pointers	6-17 35%
9-10 90%	Free throws	17-22 77%
37 9 off	Rebounds	38 9 off
17	Assists	13
5	Steals	5
0	Blocks	4
8	Turnovers	9
18	Fouls	14
32	Points in paint	40
9	Fast-break points	22

Players

SAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jadin Booth G	33	14	2	3	3-15	2-10
Keaton Norris G	33	11	4	5	4-10	1-4
Cade Norris G	31	15	6	4	6-8	3-5
Dylan Faulkner F	22	13	6	0	6-10	0-0
Jaxon Pollard F	20	5	6	0	2-4	1-3
Bench
Isaiah Campbell-Finch G	18	2	0	0	1-6	0-1
Zion Wilburn G	17	15	4	0	6-9	3-4
Will Shaver C	13	0	4	2	0-2	0-1
Kam Martin G	8	0	2	3	0-2	0-1
Judson Bjornstad F	5	0	1	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Cooper Davenport, Joshua Hughes, JD Gossett, Caleb Harrison, Corey Brown, Zach Lamey, DaJion Humphrey

ARK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Meleek Thomas G	36	17	8	4	5-13	1-2
Darius Acuff Jr. G	31	20	3	5	7-13	2-3
DJ Wagner G	28	10	3	2	3-5	1-2
Karter Knox G	27	4	6	2	2-5	0-1
Nick Pringle F	18	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Billy Richmond III G	27	10	5	0	4-7	1-3
Trevon Brazile F	23	15	7	0	6-14	1-5
Malique Ewin F	8	2	0	0	1-3	0-0
Isaiah Sealy F	2	1	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Elmir Dzafic, Karim Rtail, Paulo Semedo, Ayden Kelley, Jaden Karuletwa, Amere Brown

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ARK -24.5	ARK -22.8	SAM +1.7	W SAM covered
Total	158.5	163.4	Over 4.9	L Under
Projected score	—	SAM 70.3 · ARK 93.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ARK -13.7	ARK -10.0
1H total	76.5	80
1H projected score	SAM 31.4 · ARK 45.1	SAM 35 · ARK 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAM LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	0-1
ARK WLW	2-1	67%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: SAM away, as underdog; ARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAM OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
ARK OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAMlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
ARKlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Samford

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +10.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

L W W

2 straight wins2 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TULN	L 72-85	+7.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 7	vsSCST	W 82-72	-14.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 12	@TXSO	W 93-90	-2.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

−5.5

SCST

W 82-72

−4.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+0.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TULN

L 72-85

+2.5

SCST

W 82-72

−0.5

TXSO

W 93-90

+29.5

over 2under 1avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arkansas

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSOU	W 109-77	-26.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 186
Nov 8	@MSU	L 66-69	+2.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 11	vsCARK	W 93-56	-35.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SOU

W 109-77

+5.5

MSU

L 66-69

−0.5

CARK

W 93-56

+1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SOU

W 109-77

+35.5

MSU

L 66-69

−20.5

CARK

W 93-56

−9.5

over 1under 2avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Samford Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Samford

Arkansas

Samford

Arkansas