Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks at Creighton Bluejays: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 8:00 PM ETCHI Health Center Omaha · at Creighton

#364UMESMD Eastern45final

Final

#37CREICreighton AP #2384▲ winner

Closing lineCREI -33.5✓ CREI covered by 5.5

Closing total135.5Under by 6.5

Season records: MD Eastern and Creighton
UMES	This season	CREI
0-3	Record	1-1
2-1	ATS	0-2
0-3	O/U	0-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UMES 56–87 CREI · ✓ CREI (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UMES	23	22	45
CREI	37	47	84

1st half: UMES 23, CREI 37 (CREI by 14). The model had CREI by 18.4 and a total of 67.0 (actual 60).

Team stats

UMES		CREI
19-50 38%	Field goals	33-67 49%
2-15 13%	3-pointers	10-33 30%
5-6 83%	Free throws	8-11 73%
26 6 off	Rebounds	43 17 off
11	Assists	23
2	Steals	11
1	Blocks	1
18	Turnovers	9
14	Fouls	13
20	Points in paint	42
2	Fast-break points	18

Players

UMES	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Michael Teal G	18	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Jaden Cooper G	16	2	1	1	1-4	0-1
Zion Obanla G	14	2	1	1	1-4	0-0
Joseph Locandro F	12	2	5	0	1-9	0-2
Levi Beckwith SF	8	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Bench
Dorion Staples F	23	7	3	2	3-7	1-3
Justin Monden G	21	13	0	0	6-6	0-0
Trey Hall F	18	3	3	2	1-6	1-5
Javoy Thompson G	16	2	1	1	0-2	0-0
Christopher Flippin PF	16	8	1	3	4-5	0-0
Maurio Hanson Jr. F	13	2	2	1	1-2	0-1
Maurice Vassel F	11	2	1	0	0-0	0-0
Trey Brown G	11	2	4	0	1-1	0-0
Jaden Johnson PG	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Devin Thomas

CREI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Dix G	29	10	0	4	4-10	2-7
Jackson McAndrew F	24	8	4	1	3-8	2-7
Blake Harper G	22	14	9	2	5-9	0-2
Nik Graves G	22	7	5	4	3-4	0-1
Owen Freeman F	19	9	8	5	4-8	0-0
Bench
Jasen Green F	17	14	5	1	5-8	2-3
Isaac Traudt F	16	6	2	1	2-5	2-5
Austin Swartz G	14	2	1	1	1-4	0-3
Kerem Konan F	14	8	3	0	4-6	0-0
Fedor Zugic G	11	3	2	3	1-4	1-4
Ty Davis G	10	3	1	1	1-1	1-1
Shane Thomas G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Aleksa Dimitrijevic, Hudson Greer, Josh Townley-Thomas, Liam McChesney

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CREI -33.5	CREI -30.7	UMES +2.8	L CREI covered
Total	135.5	142.9	Over 7.4	L Under
Projected score	—	UMES 56.1 · CREI 86.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CREI -18.4	CREI -14.0
1H total	67.0	60
1H projected score	UMES 24.3 · CREI 42.7	UMES 23 · CREI 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UMES WLW	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1
CREI LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: UMES away, as underdog; CREI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UMES UUU	0-3	0%	0-3
CREI UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UMESlast 3	0-3 0%	2-1 67%	0-3 0%
CREIlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

MD Eastern

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −26.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GT	L 52-56	+28.5	W +24.5	139.5	U 108
Nov 5	@UGA	L 29-94	+33.5	L −31.5	142.5	U 123
Nov 11	@NEB	L 50-69	+35.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 52-56

+24.5

UGA

L 29-94

−31.5

NEB

L 50-69

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 52-56

−31.5

UGA

L 29-94

−19.5

NEB

L 50-69

−27.5

over 0under 3avg −26.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Creighton

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −14 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsSDAK	W 92-76	-29.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	@GONZ	L 63-90	+12.5	L −14.5	164.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−13.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−14.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDAK

W 92-76

−1.5

GONZ

L 63-90

−11.5

over 0under 2avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks at Creighton Bluejays

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

MD Eastern

Creighton

MD Eastern

Creighton