Jackson State Tigers at Auburn Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 9:00 PM ETNeville Arena · at Auburn

#280JKSTJackson St66final

Final

#21AUBAuburn AP #22112▲ winner

Closing lineAUB -30.5✓ AUB covered by 15.5

Closing total156.5Over by 21.5

Season records: Jackson St and Auburn
JKST	This season	AUB
0-3	Record	3-1
1-2	ATS	3-1
2-1	O/U	4-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: JKST 64–97 AUB · ✓ AUB (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
JKST	24	42	66
AUB	55	57	112

1st half: JKST 24, AUB 55 (AUB by 31). The model had AUB by 19.8 and a total of 75.0 (actual 79).

Team stats

JKST		AUB
23-56 41%	Field goals	42-65 65%
6-18 33%	3-pointers	13-32 41%
14-19 74%	Free throws	15-19 79%
28 11 off	Rebounds	30 8 off
6	Assists	28
6	Steals	16
1	Blocks	4
22	Turnovers	9
14	Fouls	19
30	Points in paint	56
11	Fast-break points	27

Players

JKST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Daeshun Ruffin G	34	18	2	4	5-14	0-1
Jayme Mitchell Jr. G	33	24	5	0	8-12	4-7
Devin Ree F	29	0	1	0	0-3	0-2
Kobe Butler F	24	4	2	0	2-4	0-1
Ebo Wilson C	23	2	8	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Dorian McMillian G	26	16	2	1	6-15	2-6
Kedrick Simmons F	18	2	2	1	1-2	0-0
Deyan Kolev F	10	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Delyle Williams G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Cael Jones, Mike Williams, Keiveon Hunt, Raevon Thomas, Jalen Tatum, Tamarion Hoover, Dionjahe Thomas

AUB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sebastian Williams-Adams F	23	8	1	2	3-3	1-1
Tahaad Pettiford G	22	6	3	5	2-9	0-5
Elyjah Freeman G	22	14	6	5	5-6	2-3
Kevin Overton G	22	13	2	2	3-6	3-6
KeShawn Murphy F	20	19	7	0	8-11	0-3
Bench
Filip Jovic C	23	18	3	0	8-10	0-1
Kaden Magwood G	19	6	2	8	3-6	0-2
Abdul Bashir G	13	0	2	2	0-3	0-3
Blake Muschalek G	12	4	3	1	1-2	1-2
Emeka Opurum C	11	6	1	0	3-3	0-0
Simon Walker G	7	15	0	1	5-5	5-5
Drake Cardwell G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
CJ Williams G	2	3	0	2	1-1	1-1
Reed Trapp G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Keyshawn Hall, Bradley Pearson, Jeremiah Bowman, Joah Shay

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	AUB -30.5	AUB -33.0	AUB +2.5	W AUB covered
Total	156.5	160.1	Over 3.6	W Over
Projected score	—	JKST 63.6 · AUB 96.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AUB -19.8	AUB -31.0
1H total	75.0	79
1H projected score	JKST 27.6 · AUB 47.4	JKST 24 · AUB 55

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JKST LWL	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2
AUB LWWW	3-1	75%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: JKST away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
JKST OOU	2-1	67%	0-3
AUB OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JKSTlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
AUBlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jackson St

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −11.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ILL	L 55-113	+28.5	L −29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 6	@LOU	L 70-106	+38.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 15	@LT	L 51-68	+8.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

−29.5

LOU

L 70-106

+2.5

L 51-68

−8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −11.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

+10.5

LOU

L 70-106

+10.5

L 51-68

−27.5

over 2under 1avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Auburn

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +10.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBCU	W 95-90	-24.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	vsMRMK	W 95-57	-23.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	vsWOF	W 93-62	-27.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 16	vsHOU	L 72-73	+7.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

−19.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+14.5

WOF

W 93-62

+3.5

HOU

L 72-73

+6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

+31.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+3.5

WOF

W 93-62

+2.5

HOU

L 72-73

+4.5

over 4under 0avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Jackson State Tigers at Auburn Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Jackson St

Auburn

Jackson St

Auburn