Incarnate Word Cardinals vs High Point Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 7:00 PM ETOcean Center · Neutral site

Final

#90HPUHigh Point91▲ winner

Closing lineHPU -12.5✓ UIW covered by 1.5

Closing total160.5Over by 10.5

Season records: Incarnate Word and High Point
UIW	This season	HPU
1-2	Record	4-1
1-2	ATS	3-2
2-1	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UIW 74–85 HPU · ✓ HPU (84%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UIW	40	40	80
HPU	46	45	91

1st half: UIW 40, HPU 46 (HPU by 6). The model had HPU by 6.7 and a total of 74.3 (actual 86).

Team stats

UIW		HPU
26-61 43%	Field goals	30-56 54%
11-29 38%	3-pointers	5-18 28%
17-22 77%	Free throws	26-31 84%
27 14 off	Rebounds	38 15 off
11	Assists	14
4	Steals	7
1	Blocks	2
10	Turnovers	8
22	Fouls	20
24	Points in paint	48
6	Fast-break points	26

Players

UIW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tahj Staveskie G	36	19	2	3	5-12	2-6
Davion Bailey G	36	30	4	0	10-22	7-16
Harold Woods G	31	4	9	3	2-5	0-1
Jordan Pyke G	28	14	3	1	5-10	1-3
Marcus Glover F	22	7	4	1	2-4	0-0
Bench
Lewis Rowe C	12	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Esteban Mann F	11	1	1	0	0-3	0-0
Love Bettis G	10	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Harrison Reede G	8	3	0	0	1-3	1-3
Jayden Williams C	6	2	0	1	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Isaiah Kortas, Tyler Simon, Mihael Tomic, Drew Barbee, Amani Drummond

HPU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cam'Ron Fletcher F	35	18	12	0	6-11	2-4
Owen Aquino F	28	11	4	3	3-8	0-1
Terry Anderson F	23	23	4	1	10-12	1-2
Rob Martin G	22	8	2	2	3-9	0-2
Chase Johnston G	17	2	3	1	0-3	0-3
Bench
Conrad Martinez G	26	13	5	6	2-4	0-2
Scotty Washington G	19	10	1	0	3-3	2-2
Braden Hausen F	18	2	1	1	1-3	0-2
Caden Miller F	9	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Youssouf Singar C	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Josh Ibukunoluwa F	1	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Babacar Diallo, Dorian Grosber, Kasen Krueger, Mavrick Miller, Birgir Irving, David Fonville, Liam Carney, Vincent Brady II

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HPU -12.5	HPU -11.3	UIW +1.2	W UIW covered
Total	160.5	158.5	Under 2.0	L Over
Projected score	—	UIW 73.6 · HPU 84.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HPU -6.7	HPU -6.0
1H total	74.3	86
1H projected score	UIW 33.8 · HPU 40.5	UIW 40 · HPU 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UIW LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
HPU WWLWL	3-2	60%	1-1	3-2

Venue/role: UIW neutral site, as underdog; HPU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UIW OUO	2-1	67%	1-2
HPU OUUUO	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UIWlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
HPUlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Incarnate Word

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CSU	L 64-98	+10.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 16	@IU	L 61-69	+28.5	W +20.5	157.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsUSI	W 87-81	-9.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSU

L 64-98

−23.5

L 61-69

+20.5

USI

W 87-81

−3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSU

L 64-98

+14.5

L 61-69

−27.5

USI

W 87-81

+22.5

over 2under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

High Point

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFUR	W 97-71	-3.5	W +22.5	153.5	O 168
Nov 11	vsJAX	W 85-64	-17.5	W +3.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 14	@UAB	L 74-91	-1.5	L −18.5	168.5	U 165
Nov 17	vsCAN	W 93-50	-23.5	W +19.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsUIC	W 90-80	-10.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FUR

W 97-71

+22.5

JAX

W 85-64

+3.5

UAB

L 74-91

−18.5

CAN

W 93-50

+19.5

UIC

W 90-80

−0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FUR

W 97-71

+14.5

JAX

W 85-64

−7.5

UAB

L 74-91

−3.5

CAN

W 93-50

−9.5

UIC

W 90-80

+11.5

over 2under 3avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Incarnate Word Cardinals vs High Point Panthers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Incarnate Word

High Point

Incarnate Word

High Point