Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Incarnate Word Cardinals: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 12:30 PM ETOcean Center · Neutral site

#304USISouthern Indiana Screaming Eagles81final

Final

Closing lineUIW -9.5✓ USI covered by 3.5

Closing total145.5Over by 22.5

Season records: Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles and Incarnate Word
USI	This season	UIW
0-3	Record	0-2
0-3	ATS	1-1
0-3	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: USI 68–77 UIW · ✓ UIW (80%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
USI	38	43	81
UIW	41	46	87

1st half: USI 38, UIW 41 (UIW by 3). The model had UIW by 5.7 and a total of 67.9 (actual 79).

Team stats

USI		UIW
30-61 49%	Field goals	32-59 54%
5-21 24%	3-pointers	4-10 40%
16-21 76%	Free throws	19-29 66%
27 7 off	Rebounds	38 11 off
11	Assists	12
4	Steals	3
0	Blocks	2
10	Turnovers	10
23	Fouls	22
36	Points in paint	46
9	Fast-break points	23

Players

USI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ismail Habib G	34	21	5	3	8-15	1-4
Kaden Brown G	33	8	1	2	3-10	1-8
Ola Ajiboye F	24	18	3	0	6-8	0-0
Tolu Samuels F	20	2	0	1	1-3	0-1
Steven Clay G	14	6	1	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Cardell Bailey G	30	18	6	0	7-12	3-7
Trey Thomas G	18	4	2	0	2-6	0-1
Devin Curtis F	15	4	3	2	2-4	0-0
Sheridan Sharp G	12	0	1	3	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Braxton Jones, Ben Ezeagu, Josiah Dunham, Cayden Gehlhausen, Alem Fejzic, Amaree Brown

UIW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Davion Bailey G	37	25	3	1	9-17	2-5
Tahj Staveskie G	36	21	4	4	8-14	1-2
Harold Woods G	34	15	9	2	6-8	0-0
Jordan Pyke G	33	11	8	2	4-8	0-1
Marcus Glover F	15	6	5	1	2-2	0-0
Bench
Love Bettis G	12	2	1	0	0-2	0-0
Jayden Williams C	12	4	0	0	2-4	0-0
Harrison Reede G	7	3	2	0	1-2	1-2
Lewis Rowe C	7	0	3	2	0-1	0-0
Mihael Tomic G	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Esteban Mann F	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Drew Barbee, Tyler Simon, Amani Drummond, Isaiah Kortas

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UIW -9.5	UIW -9.7	UIW +0.2	L USI covered
Total	145.5	144.9	Under 0.6	L Over
Projected score	—	USI 67.6 · UIW 77.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UIW -5.7	UIW -3.0
1H total	67.9	79
1H projected score	USI 31.1 · UIW 36.8	USI 38 · UIW 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
USI LLL	0-3	0%	—	0-3
UIW LW	1-1	50%	—	—

Venue/role: USI neutral site, as underdog; UIW neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
USI UUU	0-3	0%	0-3
UIW OU	1-1	50%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USIlast 3	0-3 0%	0-3 0%	0-3 0%
UIWlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@BTLR	L 58-88	+22.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 7	vsVMI	L 74-78	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 12	@SDAK	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−7.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−7.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−10.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−1.5

over 0under 3avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Incarnate Word

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CSU	L 64-98	+10.5	L −23.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 16	@IU	L 61-69	+28.5	W +20.5	157.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSU

L 64-98

−23.5

L 61-69

+20.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSU

L 64-98

+14.5

L 61-69

−27.5

over 1under 1avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs Incarnate Word

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Incarnate Word

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Incarnate Word