Northwestern Wildcats vs Virginia Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 5:00 PM ETColonial Hall · Neutral site

Final

#20UVAVirginia83▲ winner

Closing lineUVA -4.5✓ UVA covered by 0.5

Closing total149.5Over by 11.5

Season records: Northwestern and Virginia
NU	This season	UVA
4-0	Record	4-0
2-2	ATS	3-1
2-2	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NU 74–72 UVA · ✗ NU (55%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NU	36	42	78
UVA	40	43	83

1st half: NU 36, UVA 40 (UVA by 4). The model had NU by 1.1 and a total of 68.3 (actual 76).

Team stats

NU		UVA
27-58 47%	Field goals	24-64 38%
7-16 44%	3-pointers	5-24 21%
17-24 71%	Free throws	30-36 83%
25 6 off	Rebounds	49 21 off
14	Assists	8
7	Steals	4
1	Blocks	4
7	Turnovers	11
29	Fouls	22
34	Points in paint	30
14	Fast-break points	17

Players

NU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Martinelli F	38	9	3	2	3-12	1-2
Arrinten Page F	33	20	6	2	8-14	2-6
Jayden Reid G	27	25	4	5	6-15	2-3
Angelo Ciaravino G	25	6	3	3	3-5	0-1
Tre Singleton F	23	6	5	1	2-2	1-1
Bench
Justin Mullins G	24	5	0	0	2-4	0-1
K.J. Windham G	11	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
Jake West G	9	4	0	1	2-3	0-0
Max Green G	8	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Tyler Kropp F	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cade Bennerman, Gus Hurlburt, Blake Smith, Jordan Clayton, Phoenix Gill

UVA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Malik Thomas G	32	14	5	3	3-11	1-4
Johann Grunloh C	31	5	7	3	2-6	0-2
Dallin Hall G	29	11	4	1	2-9	2-4
Thijs De Ridder F	27	26	8	0	9-15	0-1
Sam Lewis G	27	9	6	0	4-9	1-4
Bench
Chance Mallory G	25	16	8	1	3-7	1-4
Jacari White G	13	0	3	0	0-4	0-3
Ugonna Onyenso C	9	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Devin Tillis F	7	0	1	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Desmond Roberts, Silas Barksdale, Martin Carrere, Elijah Gertrude, Owen Odom, Carter Lang

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UVA -4.5	NU -1.5	NU +6.0	L UVA covered
Total	149.5	145.8	Under 3.7	L Over
Projected score	—	NU 73.7 · UVA 72.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NU -1.1	UVA -4.0
1H total	68.3	76
1H projected score	NU 34.7 · UVA 33.6	NU 36 · UVA 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NU LWWL	2-2	50%	—	—
UVA WLWW	3-1	75%	—	3-1

Venue/role: NU neutral site, as underdog; UVA neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU UUOO	2-2	50%	4-0
UVA UUUO	1-3	25%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NUlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
UVAlast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Northwestern

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMERC	W 70-47	-26.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 7	vsBU	W 76-52	-17.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 10	vsCLE	W 110-63	-23.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 14	@DEP	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−3.5

W 76-52

+6.5

CLE

W 110-63

+23.5

DEP

W 81-79

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−23.5

W 76-52

−8.5

CLE

W 110-63

+21.5

DEP

W 81-79

+14.5

over 2under 2avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Virginia

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRID	W 87-53	-26.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 7	vsNCCU	W 81-62	-34.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 11	vsHAMP	W 91-53	-24.5	W +13.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 15	vsMRSH	W 104-78	-20.5	W +5.5	155.5	O 182

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 87-53

+7.5

NCCU

W 81-62

−15.5

HAMP

W 91-53

+13.5

MRSH

W 104-78

+5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 87-53

−8.5

NCCU

W 81-62

−8.5

HAMP

W 91-53

−4.5

MRSH

W 104-78

+26.5

over 1under 3avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northwestern Wildcats vs Virginia Cavaliers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Northwestern

Virginia

Northwestern

Virginia