Wisconsin Badgers at BYU Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 4:00 PM ETDelta Center · at BYU

#41WISWisconsin AP #2370final

Final

#24BYUBYU AP #998▲ winner

Closing lineBYU -4.5✓ BYU covered by 23.5

Closing total165.5Over by 2.5

Season records: Wisconsin and BYU
WIS	This season	BYU
4-0	Record	3-1
2-2	ATS	2-2
3-1	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WIS 77–84 BYU · ✓ BYU (71%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WIS	33	37	70
BYU	45	53	98

1st half: WIS 33, BYU 45 (BYU by 12). The model had BYU by 3.7 and a total of 75.3 (actual 78).

Team stats

WIS		BYU
23-61 38%	Field goals	31-65 48%
7-29 24%	3-pointers	14-34 41%
17-26 65%	Free throws	22-29 76%
39 11 off	Rebounds	44 12 off
8	Assists	18
6	Steals	6
3	Blocks	2
12	Turnovers	8
25	Fouls	24
30	Points in paint	32
19	Fast-break points	14

Players

WIS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
John Blackwell G	35	14	7	2	3-13	1-5
Nolan Winter F	31	14	14	2	5-11	0-4
Austin Rapp F	27	2	0	0	0-7	0-5
Nick Boyd G	27	16	2	0	7-14	0-4
Andrew Rohde G	21	5	4	1	2-5	1-3
Bench
Jack Janicki G	19	5	2	0	2-3	1-2
Braeden Carrington G	18	14	2	1	4-7	4-5
Aleksas Bieliauskas F	13	0	4	0	0-1	0-1
Will Garlock F	7	0	1	2	0-0	0-0
Hayden Jones G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jack Robison, Zach Kinziger, Elijah Gray, Riccardo Greppi, Isaac Gard

BYU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Richie Saunders G	36	26	3	2	10-16	5-9
Robert Wright III G	33	10	7	11	4-12	2-4
AJ Dybantsa F	29	18	6	3	3-8	1-3
Dawson Baker F	22	11	3	0	4-6	2-4
Keba Keita F	15	4	6	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Tyler Mrus F	20	6	3	0	2-7	2-7
Khadim Mboup F	19	6	5	1	3-4	0-0
Dominique Diomande F	16	6	5	0	1-4	0-3
Mihailo Boskovic F	4	3	1	0	0-2	0-1
Aleksej Kostic G	3	6	1	0	2-3	2-3
Xavion Staton C	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Jared McGregor G	1	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Nate Pickens, Kennard Davis Jr., Brody Kozlowski

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BYU -4.5	BYU -6.5	BYU +2.0	W BYU covered
Total	165.5	160.8	Under 4.7	L Over
Projected score	—	WIS 77.2 · BYU 83.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BYU -3.7	BYU -12.0
1H total	75.3	78
1H projected score	WIS 35.8 · BYU 39.5	WIS 33 · BYU 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS WLWL	2-2	50%	—	—
BYU LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: WIS away, as underdog; BYU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS OOUO	3-1	75%	4-0
BYU UUUO	1-3	25%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WISlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
BYUlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WIS 0–1 BYUBYU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · WIS 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 22, 2024-25	BYU 91 vs WIS 89	WIS -1.5	BYU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wisconsin

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +5.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAM	W 96-64	-20.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 7	vsNIU	W 97-72	-28.5	L −3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 11	vsBALL	W 86-55	-26.5	W +4.5	156.5	U 141
Nov 17	vsSIUE	W 94-69	-25.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAM

W 96-64

+11.5

NIU

W 97-72

−3.5

BALL

W 86-55

+4.5

SIUE

W 94-69

−0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAM

W 96-64

+8.5

NIU

W 97-72

+11.5

BALL

W 86-55

−15.5

SIUE

W 94-69

+16.5

over 3under 1avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

BYU

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −7.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsVILL	W 71-66	-9.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsHC	W 98-53	-38.5	W +6.5	165.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsDEL	W 85-68	-35.5	L −18.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 15	vsCONN	L 84-86	+6.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VILL

W 71-66

−4.5

W 98-53

+6.5

DEL

W 85-68

−18.5

CONN

L 84-86

+4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VILL

W 71-66

−16.5

W 98-53

−14.5

DEL

W 85-68

−11.5

CONN

L 84-86

+13.5

over 1under 3avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wisconsin Badgers at BYU Cougars

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wisconsin

BYU

Wisconsin

BYU