John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia
Closing line
UVA -20.5✓ UVA covered by 5.5
UVA -20.5✓ UVA covered by 5.5Closing total155.5Over by 26.5
 MRSH | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Record | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | ATS | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | O/U | 0-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MRSH 67–82 UVA · ✓ UVA (91%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 33 | 45 | 78 |
| UVA | 61 | 43 | 104 |
1st half: MRSH 33, UVA 61 (UVA by 28). The model had UVA by 9.3 and a total of 69.8 (actual 94).
Team stats
| MRSH | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-60 43% | Field goals | 33-63 52% |
| 7-24 29% | 3-pointers | 12-28 43% |
| 19-24 79% | Free throws | 26-36 72% |
| 35 11 off | Rebounds | 38 13 off |
| 14 | Assists | 18 |
| 6 | Steals | 9 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 28 | Fouls | 20 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 17 | Fast-break points | 19 |
Players
| MRSH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Otshudi G | 32 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4-12 | 1-3 |
| Matt Van Komen C | 28 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Wyatt Fricks F | 27 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
| Caleb Hollenbeck G | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Jalen Speer G | 17 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Landen Joseph G | 22 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 8-11 | 3-4 |
| Bryce Slay G | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Wilson Dubinsky G | 16 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Erich Harding F | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Drew Fuquay F | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Shamarrie Hugie G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Grant Moore G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kai Spears G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Will Moore, Kaiden White
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallin Hall G | 33 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 5-6 | 3-4 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 30 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 8-17 | 1-4 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 26 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 6-11 | 1-3 |
| Malik Thomas G | 19 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 7-9 | 4-5 |
| Sam Lewis G | 18 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jacari White G | 22 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Chance Mallory G | 22 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Elijah Gertrude G | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Martin Carrere G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Desmond Roberts G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Carter Lang F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Devin Tillis, Owen Odom, Silas Barksdale
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVA -20.5
ModelUVA -15.6
Model edgeMRSH +4.9
L UVA covered
Total
Market155.5
Model149.1
Model edgeUnder 6.4
L Over
Projected score
MRSH 66.7 · UVA 82.3
MRSH 78 · UVA 104
Win probability
UVA 91%
1st half
Spread
UVA -9.3
UVA -28.0
Total
69.8
94 points
Projected score
MRSH 30.3 · UVA 39.6
MRSH 33 · UVA 61
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -19.5
1 → UVA
CloseUVA -20.5
1 pt toward UVA
Total
Open153.5
▲ 2
Close155.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MRSH +1500 · UVA -5000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -19.5 · closed UVA -20.5 · moved 1 toward UVAmodel UVA -15.5
model UVA -15.5
Opened 153.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 2 upmodel 149
model 149
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRSHlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 2-1 67% | 1-2 33% |
| UVAlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 2-1 67% | 0-3 0% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Marshall
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg +7.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg +8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
MASS
MASSW 78-72
+10.5
8
@
TOL
TOLW 85-73
+14.5
12
vs
ELON
ELONW 96-89
−1.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@MASS
MASSW 78-72
−2.5
8
@TOL
TOLW 85-73
−2.5
12
vsELON
ELONW 96-89
+29.5
over 1under 2avg +8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-3
0% overs · avg −7.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
RID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vs
NCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vs
HAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
over 0under 3avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Marshall
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Elon96–89
- W@ Toledo85–73
- W@ UMass78–72
3 days since their last game.
Virginia
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Hampton91–53
- Wvs NC Central81–62
- Wvs Rider87–53
4 days since their last game.