Ohio Bobcats at Louisville Cardinals: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 12:00 PM ETKFC Yum! Center · at Louisville

#128OHIOOhio81final

Final

#14LOULouisville AP #12106▲ winner

Closing lineLOU -31.5✓ OHIO covered by 6.5

Closing total174.5Over by 12.5

Season records: Ohio and Louisville
OHIO	This season	LOU
1-2	Record	3-0
1-2	ATS	2-1
2-1	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OHIO 69–95 LOU · ✓ LOU (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OHIO	44	37	81
LOU	59	47	106

1st half: OHIO 44, LOU 59 (LOU by 15). The model had LOU by 15.8 and a total of 76.7 (actual 103).

Team stats

OHIO		LOU
26-59 44%	Field goals	34-68 50%
9-26 35%	3-pointers	16-35 46%
20-26 77%	Free throws	22-30 73%
34 12 off	Rebounds	41 17 off
12	Assists	23
9	Steals	11
3	Blocks	3
17	Turnovers	11
20	Fouls	25
28	Points in paint	36
2	Fast-break points	4

Players

OHIO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Paveletzke G	37	28	0	4	8-14	3-4
Ajay Sheldon G	35	6	6	3	2-5	2-3
JJ Kelly G	29	11	5	0	4-5	2-3
Javan Simmons F	29	6	9	2	2-8	0-2
Aidan Hadaway F	26	12	8	2	3-10	0-6
Bench
Dior Conners G	19	10	0	0	4-10	2-6
Kiir Kuany F	13	6	0	0	2-3	0-1
Ayden Evans F	12	2	3	1	1-4	0-1

Did not play: Elijah Elliott, Chase Boals, Jesse Burris, Jalen Breath, Zay Mosley, Carter Reese, Jordan Fisher

LOU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mikel Brown Jr. G	28	19	0	7	5-11	3-6
Ryan Conwell G	27	22	6	3	7-14	5-10
J'Vonne Hadley G	25	11	4	2	4-6	1-2
Isaac McKneely G	25	15	6	0	5-11	4-10
Sananda Fru F	21	14	5	2	4-6	0-1
Bench
Adrian Wooley G	24	11	6	2	4-9	2-4
Kobe Rodgers G	14	7	5	2	3-3	0-0
Khani Rooths F	13	4	1	1	1-2	0-1
Aly Khalifa C	11	0	1	2	0-2	0-0
Kasean Pryor F	7	3	3	1	1-1	1-1
Vangelis Zougris F	5	0	2	1	0-3	0-0

Did not play: Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, Will Hanke, Mouhamed Camara

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LOU -31.5	LOU -26.3	OHIO +5.2	W OHIO covered
Total	174.5	163.9	Under 10.6	L Over
Projected score	—	OHIO 68.8 · LOU 95.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LOU -15.8	LOU -15.0
1H total	76.7	103
1H projected score	OHIO 30.5 · LOU 46.3	OHIO 44 · LOU 59

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
LOU WLW	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: OHIO away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO OUO	2-1	67%	1-2
LOU UOO	2-1	67%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIOlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
LOUlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Ohio

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARST	L 85-89	-3.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 174
Nov 6	vsILST	W 72-68	-1.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 11	@SMC	L 60-90	+17.5	L −12.5	144.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

L 85-89

−7.5

ILST

W 72-68

+2.5

SMC

L 60-90

−12.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

L 85-89

+14.5

ILST

W 72-68

−21.5

SMC

L 60-90

+5.5

over 2under 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Louisville

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +7.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSCST	W 104-45	-35.5	W +23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 6	vsJKST	W 106-70	-38.5	L −2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 11	vsUK	W 96-88	-5.5	W +2.5	173.5	O 184

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SCST

W 104-45

+23.5

JKST

W 106-70

−2.5

W 96-88

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SCST

W 104-45

−10.5

JKST

W 106-70

+10.5

W 96-88

+10.5

over 2under 1avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ohio Bobcats at Louisville Cardinals

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Ohio

Louisville

Ohio

Louisville