KFC Yum! Center · at Louisville
Closing line
LOU -5.5✓ LOU covered by 2.5
LOU -5.5✓ LOU covered by 2.5Closing total173.5Over by 10.5
 UK | This season | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Record | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | ATS | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | O/U | 1-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UK 80–83 LOU · ✓ LOU (60%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 46 | 42 | 88 |
| LOU | 53 | 43 | 96 |
1st half: UK 46, LOU 53 (LOU by 7). The model had LOU by 1.5 and a total of 76.3 (actual 99).
Team stats
| UK | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-68 47% | Field goals | 31-69 45% |
| 12-34 35% | 3-pointers | 13-40 33% |
| 12-16 75% | Free throws | 21-31 68% |
| 42 13 off | Rebounds | 40 13 off |
| 14 | Assists | 20 |
| 4 | Steals | 11 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 19 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 31 | 26 | 7 | 3 | 10-20 | 4-10 |
| Otega Oweh G | 28 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 4-13 | 1-6 |
| Collin Chandler G | 25 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 23 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Mo Dioubate F | 18 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaland Lowe G | 30 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 2-8 | 2-5 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 17 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Kam Williams G | 12 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
Did not play: Trent Noah, Zach Tow, Reece Potter, Braydon Hawthorne, Walker Horn, Jayden Quaintance
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Brown Jr. G | 33 | 29 | 2 | 5 | 8-16 | 3-10 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 32 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 6-16 | 4-10 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 31 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Sananda Fru F | 25 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Khani Rooths F | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 27 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 17 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3-11 | 2-7 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 15 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Kasean Pryor F | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Vangelis Zougris, Will Hanke, Mouhamed Camara, Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLOU -5.5
ModelLOU -2.8
Model edgeUK +2.7
L LOU covered
Total
Market173.5
Model163.1
Model edgeUnder 10.4
L Over
Projected score
UK 80.1 · LOU 82.9
UK 88 · LOU 96
Win probability
LOU 60%
1st half
Spread
LOU -1.5
LOU -7.0
Total
76.3
99 points
Projected score
UK 37.4 · LOU 38.9
UK 46 · LOU 53
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -4.5
1 → LOU
CloseLOU -5.5
1 pt toward LOU
Total
Open169.5
▲ 4
Close173.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
UK +195 · LOU -230
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -4.5 · closed LOU -5.5 · moved 1 toward LOUmodel LOU -3
model LOU -3
Opened 169.5 · closed 173.5 · moved 4 upmodel 163
model 163
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UKlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% | 1-1 50% |
| LOUlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% | 1-1 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UK 3–0 LOUUK leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · UK has won the last 3 meetings · UK 2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024-25 | LOU 85 @ UK 93 | UK -9.5 | LOU W |
| Dec 21, 2023-24 | UK 95 @ LOU 76 | LOU +13.5 | UK W |
| Dec 31, 2022-23 | LOU 63 @ UK 86 | UK -22.5 | UK W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Kentucky
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg −10.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
NICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vs
VAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
over 1under 1avg −10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisville
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg +10.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
SCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vs
JKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
over 1under 1avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Kentucky
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Valparaiso107–59
- Wvs Nicholls77–51
4 days since their last game.
Louisville
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Jackson St106–70
- Wvs SC State104–45
5 days since their last game.