Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 10:00 PM ETChase Center · at Warriors · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineGS -2.5moved 2 toward PHX

Total227.5no move

Season records: Suns and Warriors
PHX	This season	GS
1-3	Record	4-3
0-4	ATS	5-2
3-1	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 117–114 · win probability GS 58%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

GS -2.5

moved 2 toward PHX

Total

227.5

model 231.4 · Over by 4

Model edge

Even

matches the market

Public on the spread

64% GS

53% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

PHX 1, GS 8 · 2026-27 so far

GSBig

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0

GSBig

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 45.1% and 47.1% of their shots

GSBig

GS offense vs PHX defense

Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

GSBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, GS 28.8. Allowed: PHX 31.1, GS 27.3

GSSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, GS 70.4%

PHXSmall

Rest

PHX 3 days since its last game, GS 1

GSSmall

PHX offense vs GS defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings

GSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0

GSSmall

Home court

GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, GS 16.7%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, GS 17.6%

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of under 3	474	51%	47%	44%
Conference games at this spread	577	49%	44%	45%
Games with a total of 225 to 229.5	827	68%	50%	52%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-3
GS WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: PHX away, as underdog; GS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
GS OOOUO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
GSlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	vs POR	L83–124LU
Nov 5	vs ORL	L111–115LO
Nov 7	vs HOU	L105–119LO

Warriors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs MIA	W135–112WO
Nov 7	vs ORL	W120–97WU
Nov 9	vs NO	L109–113LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

PHX 13–9 GSPHX leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 2 meetings · PHX 13-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 24, 2026-27	GS 122 @ PHX 131	PHX -9.5	GS W
Apr 17, 2025-26	GS 96 @ PHX 111	PHX -2.5	PHX W
Feb 5, 2025-26	GS 101 @ PHX 97	PHX -5.5	GS W
Dec 20, 2025-26	PHX 116 @ GS 119	GS -6.5	PHX W
Dec 18, 2025-26	GS 98 @ PHX 99	PHX +1.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Warriors

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAL	L 105-127	+6.5	L −15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsMEM	L 108-111	-4.5	L −7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 24	@PHX	L 122-131	+9.5	W +0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@DEN	W 134-114	+6.5	W +26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@MIN	W 119-114	+3.5	W +8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAL	W 112-95	+2.5	W +19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsLAC	W 124-112	-1.5	W +10.5	220.5	O 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−15.5

MEM

L 108-111

−7.5

PHX

L 122-131

+0.5

DEN

W 134-114

+26.5

MIN

W 119-114

+8.5

LAL

W 112-95

+19.5

LAC

W 124-112

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAL

L 105-127

−1.5

MEM

L 108-111

−17.5

PHX

L 122-131

+31.5

DEN

W 134-114

+11.5

MIN

W 119-114

+5.5

LAL

W 112-95

−27.5

LAC

W 124-112

+15.5

over 4under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Warriors has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, Warriors 3, even 1

SunsBetterWarriors

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXSmall

G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

GSBig

G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

Even

G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

GSSmall

F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

GSBig

F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72

SunsBetterWarriors

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

GSSmall

GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

GSBig

GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

GSBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

GSBig

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Warriors

Guards

B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min

Forwards

Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min

Centers

A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min

Out

S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

GS117.7 #11

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

GS1.17 #3

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

GS101.4 #25

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

GS55.3 #8

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

GS40.0 #2

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

GS47.1 #5

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

GS28.8 #15

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

GS16.7 #22

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

GS33.2 #1

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

GS27.4 #10

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

GS114.9 #16

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

GS1.13 #21

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

GS56.0 #25

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

GS35.2 #16

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

GS17.6 #5

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

GS70.4 #23

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

GS9.1 #11

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

GS4.1 #24

PHX		GS
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	117.7 #11
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.17 #3
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	101.4 #25
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	55.3 #8
35.0 #16	3-point %	40.0 #2
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	47.1 #5
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	28.8 #15
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	16.7 #22
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	33.2 #1
27.5 #8	Assists per game	27.4 #10
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	114.9 #16
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #21
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #25
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #16
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	17.6 #5
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	70.4 #23
9.0 #15	Steals per game	9.1 #11
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	4.1 #24

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

3 days since their last game.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Clippers124–112
Wvs Lakers112–95
W@ Timberwolves119–114
W@ Nuggets134–114
L@ Suns122–131

1 day since their last game.

Suns @ Warriors

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

Public betting

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Warriors

Warriors has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Warriors