Chase Center · at Warriors · Conference game
Closing line
LAL -2.5✓ GS covered by 19.5
LAL -2.5✓ GS covered by 19.5Closing total234.5Under by 27.5
| LAL | This season | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | O/U | 3-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LAL 120–117 GS · ✗ LAL (58%) lost
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 38 | 15 | 27 | 15 | 95 |
| GS | 15 | 38 | 32 | 27 | 112 |
1st half: LAL 53, GS 53 (tied). The model had LAL by 1.7 and a total of 118.4 (actual 106).
Team stats
| LAL | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-82 40% | Field goals | 38-89 43% |
| 11-39 28% | 3-pointers | 22-46 48% |
| 18-24 75% | Free throws | 14-17 82% |
| 45 16 off | Rebounds | 44 15 off |
| 18 | Assists | 31 |
| 8 | Steals | 11 |
| 11 | Blocks | 5 |
| 22 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 21 | Fouls | 21 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| LAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Reaves G | 37 | 21 | 4 | 5 | -13 |
| Luka Doncic G | 37 | 37 | 7 | 5 | +9 |
| Walker Kessler C | 31 | 10 | 13 | 2 | +3 |
| Matisse Thybulle G | 28 | 10 | 3 | 0 | -1 |
| Jake LaRavia F | 28 | 10 | 2 | 0 | -11 |
| Bench | |||||
| Quentin Grimes G | 26 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -13 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili F | 20 | 4 | 7 | 0 | -23 |
| Collin Sexton G | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -19 |
| Jarred Vanderbilt F | 13 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -8 |
| Chris Manon G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
| Jaden Hardy G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
| Bronny James G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Did not play: AK Okereke (COACH'S DECISION), Kevon Looney (COACH'S DECISION)
| GS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski G | 33 | 21 | 5 | 6 | +7 |
| Draymond Green F | 32 | 2 | 4 | 9 | +17 |
| Stephen Curry G | 31 | 31 | 4 | 6 | +19 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -20 |
| Gui Santos F | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +9 |
| Bench | |||||
| De'Anthony Melton G | 21 | 16 | 5 | 3 | +9 |
| Georges Niang F | 19 | 11 | 5 | 1 | +21 |
| Al Horford C | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -14 |
| Brandon Williams G | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| Will Richard G | 13 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +20 |
| Charles Bassey C | 9 | 6 | 4 | 1 | +14 |
| Gary Payton II G | 8 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Did not play: Malevy Leons, LJ Cryer
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLAL -2.5
ModelLAL -2.7
Model edgeLAL +0.2
L GS covered
Total
Market234.5
Model236.9
Model edgeOver 2.4
L Under
Projected score
LAL 119.8 · GS 117.1
LAL 95 · GS 112
Win probability
LAL 58%
1st half
Spread
LAL -1.7
tied
Total
118.4
106 points
Projected score
LAL 60 · GS 58.4
LAL 53 · GS 53
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLAL -1.5
1 → LAL
CloseLAL -2.5
1 pt toward LAL
Total
Open236.5
▼ 2
Close234.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
LAL -148 · GS +124
Line movement
Median of 1 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened LAL -1.5 · unchangedmodel LAL -2.5
model LAL -2.5
Opened 236.5 · unchangedmodel 237
model 237
Oct 22line modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Books
1 sportsbooks · prices at tip-off
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | GS | Over | Under | LAL | GS | |
| DraftKingsDK | +1.5-105 | -1.5-115 | 236.5-110 | 236.5-110 | -115 | -105 |
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LALlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 3-2 60% |
| GSlast 5 | 2-3 40% | 3-2 60% | 3-2 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 27 since 2021-22
LAL 16–11 GSLAL leads · 27 games since 2021-22 · LAL has won the last 4 meetings · LAL 17-10 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026-27 | GS 105 @ LAL 127 | LAL -6.5 | LAL W |
| Apr 9, 2025-26 | LAL 119 @ GS 103 | GS -1.5 | LAL W |
| Feb 28, 2025-26 | LAL 129 @ GS 101 | GS +3.5 | LAL W |
| Feb 7, 2025-26 | GS 99 @ LAL 105 | LAL -1.5 | LAL W |
| Oct 21, 2025-26 | GS 119 @ LAL 109 | LAL +2.5 | GS W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Lakers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg +5.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsGS
GSW 127-105
+15.5
23
vs
LAC
LACW 125-117
−0.5
25
@
UTAH
UTAHW 132-123
+2.5
27
vs
POR
PORL 129-136
−8.5
28
@LAC
LACW 103-87
+17.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsGS
GSW 127-105
−1.5
23
vsLAC
LACW 125-117
+16.5
25
@UTAH
UTAHW 132-123
+17.5
27
vsPOR
PORL 129-136
+30.5
28
@LAC
LACW 103-87
−34.5
over 3under 2avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Warriors
5 games played
Straight up
2-3
40% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg +5.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vs
MEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@
PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
26
@
DEN
DENW 134-114
+26.5
28
@
MIN
MINW 119-114
+8.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+11.5
28
@MIN
MINW 119-114
+5.5
over 3under 2avg +5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Lakers
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Clippers103–87
- Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
- W@ Jazz132–123
- Wvs Clippers125–117
- Wvs Warriors127–105
2 days since their last game.
Warriors
2-3 overall · 2-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Timberwolves119–114
- W@ Nuggets134–114
- L@ Suns122–131
- Lvs Grizzlies108–111
- L@ Lakers105–127
2 days since their last game.