Ball Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game
Closing line
DEN -6.5✓ GS covered by 26.5
DEN -6.5✓ GS covered by 26.5Closing total236.5Over by 11.5
 GS | This season | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | Record | 1-1 |
| 1-2 | ATS | 0-2 |
| 1-2 | O/U | 1-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: GS 114–123 DEN · ✗ DEN (75%) lost
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 28 | 32 | 40 | 34 | 134 |
| DEN | 32 | 24 | 28 | 30 | 114 |
1st half: GS 60, DEN 56 (GS by 4). The model had DEN by 5.3 and a total of 118.3 (actual 116).
Team stats
| GS | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 46-85 54% | Field goals | 42-84 50% |
| 22-44 50% | 3-pointers | 10-29 34% |
| 20-21 95% | Free throws | 20-23 87% |
| 45 13 off | Rebounds | 32 10 off |
| 31 | Assists | 31 |
| 5 | Steals | 13 |
| 2 | Blocks | 6 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 24 | Fouls | 17 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| GS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski G | 33 | 18 | 7 | 5 | +33 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 31 | 31 | 12 | 6 | +27 |
| Gui Santos F | 28 | 13 | 3 | 1 | +18 |
| Draymond Green F | 27 | 3 | 4 | 7 | +7 |
| Stephen Curry G | 27 | 24 | 3 | 3 | +7 |
| Bench | |||||
| De'Anthony Melton G | 19 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 |
| Al Horford C | 19 | 11 | 3 | 0 | +14 |
| Georges Niang F | 18 | 9 | 2 | 0 | -8 |
| Brandon Williams G | 15 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +14 |
| Gary Payton II G | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | -7 |
| LJ Cryer G | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | -1 |
| Graham Ike F | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Will Richard G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Malevy Leons F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Charles Bassey C | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 |
| DEN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray G | 36 | 19 | 6 | 8 | -5 |
| Nikola Jokic C | 35 | 19 | 7 | 11 | -16 |
| Christian Braun G | 34 | 9 | 4 | 2 | -13 |
| Bryce Hopkins F | 31 | 13 | 3 | 1 | -21 |
| Aaron Gordon F | 25 | 7 | 4 | 2 | -12 |
| Bench | |||||
| DeMar DeRozan G | 29 | 21 | 4 | 2 | -7 |
| Trevon Brazile F | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -9 |
| Marvin Bagley III F | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | -5 |
| Tyus Jones G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -16 |
| Zeke Nnaji F | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| DaRon Holmes II F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
| Ryan Nembhard G | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
| Cam Whitmore F | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 |
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDEN -6.5
ModelDEN -9.6
Model edgeDEN +3.1
L GS covered
Total
Market236.5
Model236.8
Model edgeOver 0.3
W Over
Projected score
GS 113.6 · DEN 123.2
GS 134 · DEN 114
Win probability
DEN 75%
1st half
Spread
DEN -5.3
GS -4.0
Total
118.3
116 points
Projected score
GS 56.5 · DEN 61.8
GS 60 · DEN 56
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDEN -7.5
1 → GS
CloseDEN -6.5
1 pt toward GS
Total
Open235.5
▲ 1
Close236.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
GS +220 · DEN -270
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DEN -7.5 · closed DEN -6.5 · moved 1 toward GSmodel DEN -9.5
model DEN -9.5
Opened 235.5 · closed 236.5 · moved 1 upmodel 237
model 237
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSlast 3 | 0-3 0% | 1-2 33% | 1-2 33% |
| DENlast 2 | 1-1 50% | 0-2 0% | 1-1 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 23 since 2021-22
GS 8–15 DENDEN leads · 23 games since 2021-22 · GS 12-11 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025-26 | GS 93 @ DEN 116 | DEN -11.5 | DEN W |
| Feb 22, 2025-26 | DEN 117 @ GS 128 | GS +6.5 | GS W |
| Nov 7, 2025-26 | GS 104 @ DEN 129 | DEN -9.5 | DEN W |
| Oct 23, 2025-26 | DEN 131 @ GS 137 | GS -1.5 | GS W |
| Apr 4, 2024-25 | DEN 104 @ GS 118 | GS -3.5 | GS W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Warriors
3 games played
Straight up
0-3
0% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg −7.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vs
MEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@
PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
over 1under 2avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Nuggets
2 games played
Straight up
1-1
50% wins
Against the spread
0-2
0% covers · avg −5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg −10 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@
OKC
OKCL 84-96
−4.5
24
vs
NO
NOW 141-135
−5.5
covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@OKC
OKCL 84-96
−56.5
24
vsNO
NOW 141-135
+36.5
over 1under 1avg −10 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Warriors
0-3 overall · 0-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Suns122–131
- Lvs Grizzlies108–111
- L@ Lakers105–127
2 days since their last game.
Nuggets
1-1 overall · 1-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Pelicans141–135
- L@ Thunder84–96
2 days since their last game.