Ball Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game
Closing line
DEN -11.5✓ NO covered by 5.5
DEN -11.5✓ NO covered by 5.5Closing total239.5Over by 36.5
 NO | This season | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | ATS | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | O/U | 0-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NO 113–123 DEN · ✓ DEN (76%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 38 | 35 | 35 | 18 | 9 | 135 |
| DEN | 24 | 33 | 32 | 37 | 15 | 141 |
1st half: NO 73, DEN 57 (NO by 16). The model had DEN by 5.6 and a total of 118.0 (actual 130).
Team stats
| NO | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 50-99 51% | Field goals | 48-99 48% |
| 11-38 29% | 3-pointers | 15-47 32% |
| 24-30 80% | Free throws | 30-39 77% |
| 50 14 off | Rebounds | 51 14 off |
| 33 | Assists | 26 |
| 9 | Steals | 9 |
| 5 | Blocks | 6 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 29 | Fouls | 28 |
| 70 | Points in paint | 56 |
| 23 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| NO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III F | 37 | 26 | 6 | 4 | -17 |
| Dejounte Murray G | 35 | 22 | 6 | 6 | -16 |
| Zion Williamson F | 33 | 17 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Jeremiah Fears G | 23 | 10 | 6 | 2 | +8 |
| DeAndre Jordan C | 20 | 9 | 9 | 2 | -1 |
| Bench | |||||
| Saddiq Bey G | 25 | 14 | 4 | 3 | -2 |
| Derik Queen C | 25 | 17 | 8 | 2 | +2 |
| Jordan Poole G | 23 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -2 |
| Bennedict Mathurin G | 20 | 9 | 4 | 4 | -5 |
| Herbert Jones F | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +7 |
| Karlo Matkovic F | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Did not play: AJ Johnson (COACH'S DECISION), Julian Reese (COACH'S DECISION), Bryce McGowens (COACH'S DECISION), Trendon Watford (COACH'S DECISION)
| DEN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic C | 44 | 35 | 15 | 10 | +11 |
| Jamal Murray G | 43 | 42 | 3 | 6 | +14 |
| Christian Braun G | 40 | 15 | 8 | 2 | +15 |
| Aaron Gordon F | 37 | 7 | 5 | 4 | +10 |
| Bryce Hopkins F | 19 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -9 |
| Bench | |||||
| Trevon Brazile F | 28 | 17 | 9 | 0 | +10 |
| DeMar DeRozan G | 24 | 12 | 3 | 3 | -3 |
| Cam Whitmore F | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -10 |
| Tyus Jones G | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
| Marvin Bagley III F | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | -5 |
Did not play: Ryan Nembhard (COACH'S DECISION), DaRon Holmes II (COACH'S DECISION), Zeke Nnaji (COACH'S DECISION)
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDEN -11.5
ModelDEN -10.1
Model edgeNO +1.4
W NO covered
Total
Market239.5
Model236.0
Model edgeUnder 3.5
L Over
Projected score
NO 113 · DEN 123
NO 135 · DEN 141
Win probability
DEN 76%
1st half
Spread
DEN -5.6
NO -16.0
Total
118.0
130 points
Projected score
NO 56.2 · DEN 61.8
NO 73 · DEN 57
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDEN -11.5
no move
CloseDEN -11.5
No change since the open
Total
Open237.5
▲ 2
Close239.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
NO +370 · DEN -485
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DEN -11.5 · unchangedmodel DEN -10
model DEN -10
Opened 237.5 · closed 239.5 · moved 2 upmodel 236
model 236
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOlast 2 | 0-2 0% | 1-1 50% | 2-0 100% |
| DENlast 1 | 0-1 0% | 0-1 0% | 0-1 0% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22
NO 5–13 DENDEN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 6 meetings · NO 8-10 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2025-26 | DEN 122 @ NO 116 | NO +2.5 | DEN W |
| Nov 19, 2025-26 | DEN 125 @ NO 118 | NO +10.5 | NO W |
| Oct 29, 2025-26 | NO 88 @ DEN 122 | DEN -11.5 | DEN W |
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | NO 119 @ DEN 144 | DEN -11.5 | DEN W |
| Feb 3, 2024-25 | NO 113 @ DEN 125 | DEN -9.5 | DEN W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pelicans
2 games played
Straight up
0-2
0% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-0
100% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@
UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
over 2under 0avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Nuggets
1 game played
Straight up
0-1
0% wins
Against the spread
0-1
0% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-1
0% overs · avg −56.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | @ OKC | L 84-96 | +7.5 | L −4.5 | 236.5 | U 180 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@OKC
OKCL 84-96
−4.5
covered 0didn’t cover 1avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@OKC
OKCL 84-96
−56.5
over 0under 1avg −56.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pelicans
0-2 overall · 0-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Jazz119–120
- Lvs Pacers120–123
1 day since their last game.
Nuggets
0-1 overall · 0-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Thunder84–96
2 days since their last game.