State Farm Arena · at Hawks
Closing line
HOU -1.5✓ HOU covered by 5.5
HOU -1.5✓ HOU covered by 5.5Closing total227.5Over by 7.5
| HOU | This season | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Record | 2-0 |
| 2-0 | ATS | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | O/U | 1-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: HOU 114–115 ATL · ✗ ATL (52%) lost
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 30 | 29 | 33 | 29 | 121 |
| ATL | 26 | 22 | 33 | 33 | 114 |
1st half: HOU 59, ATL 48 (HOU by 11). The model had ATL by 0.3 and a total of 114.4 (actual 107).
Team stats
| HOU | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 43-89 48% | Field goals | 43-97 44% |
| 14-35 40% | 3-pointers | 13-49 27% |
| 21-23 91% | Free throws | 15-21 71% |
| 44 13 off | Rebounds | 42 17 off |
| 27 | Assists | 35 |
| 6 | Steals | 9 |
| 5 | Blocks | 2 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 20 | Fouls | 21 |
| 46 | Points in paint | 58 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 20 |
Players
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson G | 39 | 17 | 11 | 6 | -1 |
| Kevin Durant F | 37 | 22 | 4 | 2 | +19 |
| Alperen Sengun C | 33 | 17 | 10 | 7 | +13 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. F | 33 | 14 | 5 | 3 | -2 |
| Reed Sheppard G | 30 | 19 | 6 | 7 | +19 |
| Bench | |||||
| Tari Eason F | 31 | 19 | 3 | 0 | -1 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic G | 20 | 11 | 1 | 1 | -6 |
| Clint Capela C | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 |
| Bruce Thornton G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Isaiah Crawford F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
| Jae'Sean Tate F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Did not play: Oscar Tshiebwe (COACH'S DECISION), Sean Pedulla (COACH'S DECISION), Marcus Smart (COACH'S DECISION)
| ATL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson F | 38 | 26 | 9 | 16 | +3 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker G | 32 | 18 | 5 | 4 | -2 |
| CJ McCollum G | 30 | 17 | 2 | 1 | -2 |
| Dyson Daniels G | 29 | 18 | 8 | 3 | -8 |
| Onyeka Okongwu F | 26 | 8 | 6 | 2 | -13 |
| Bench | |||||
| Aaron Wiggins G | 29 | 16 | 5 | 2 | -2 |
| Luguentz Dort G | 23 | 7 | 2 | 3 | -6 |
| Jock Landale C | 19 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 |
| Kingston Flemings G | 15 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -7 |
Did not play: Corey Kispert (COACH'S DECISION), Asa Newell (COACH'S DECISION), Zuby Ejiofor (COACH'S DECISION), Dorian Finney-Smith (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHOU -1.5
ModelATL -0.7
Model edgeATL +2.2
L HOU covered
Total
Market227.5
Model228.3
Model edgeOver 0.8
W Over
Projected score
HOU 113.8 · ATL 114.5
HOU 121 · ATL 114
Win probability
ATL 52%
1st half
Spread
ATL -0.3
HOU -11.0
Total
114.4
107 points
Projected score
HOU 57.1 · ATL 57.3
HOU 59 · ATL 48
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenATL -1.5
3 → HOU
CloseHOU -1.5
3 pts toward HOU
Total
Open230.5
▼ 3
Close227.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
HOU -112 · ATL -108
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ATL -1.5 · closed HOU -1.5 · moved 3 toward HOUmodel ATL -0.5
model ATL -0.5
Opened 230.5 · closed 227.5 · moved 3 downmodel 228.5
model 228.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% |
| ATLlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
HOU 6–4 ATLHOU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings · HOU 4-5-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025-26 | ATL 95 @ HOU 117 | HOU -2.5 | HOU W |
| Jan 29, 2025-26 | HOU 104 @ ATL 86 | ATL +6.5 | HOU W |
| Mar 25, 2024-25 | ATL 114 @ HOU 121 | HOU -7.5 | ATL W |
| Jan 28, 2024-25 | HOU 100 @ ATL 96 | ATL +5.5 | ATL W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | HOU 113 @ ATL 122 | ATL -7.5 | ATL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Rockets
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-0
100% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
DAL
DALW 128-110
+8.5
23
@
SA
SAW 114-110
+8.5
covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+7.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
−0.5
over 1under 1avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Hawks
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-0
100% covers · avg +27 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
ORL
ORLW 132-125
+9.5
23
@
CHA
CHAW 128-81
+44.5
covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +27 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@ORL
ORLW 132-125
+23.5
23
@CHA
CHAW 128-81
−17.5
over 1under 1avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Rockets
2-0 overall · 2-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Spurs114–110
- Wvs Mavericks128–110
1 day since their last game.
Hawks
2-0 overall · 2-0 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Hornets128–81
- W@ Magic132–125
1 day since their last game.