Moody Center · at Spurs · Conference game
Closing line
SA -4.5✓ HOU covered by 8.5
SA -4.5✓ HOU covered by 8.5Closing total224.5Under by 0.5
 HOU | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | ATS | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | O/U | 0-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: HOU 109–114 SA · ✗ SA (64%) lost
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 32 | 29 | 24 | 29 | 114 |
| SA | 27 | 32 | 22 | 29 | 110 |
1st half: HOU 61, SA 59 (HOU by 2). The model had SA by 2.6 and a total of 111.6 (actual 120).
Team stats
| HOU | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 38-78 49% | Field goals | 40-87 46% |
| 10-25 40% | 3-pointers | 12-37 32% |
| 28-31 90% | Free throws | 18-25 72% |
| 44 8 off | Rebounds | 40 9 off |
| 25 | Assists | 21 |
| 11 | Steals | 10 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 22 | Fouls | 26 |
| 46 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant F | 37 | 20 | 7 | 6 | +6 |
| Alperen Sengun C | 36 | 29 | 7 | 7 | +3 |
| Amen Thompson G | 36 | 20 | 10 | 4 | -12 |
| Fred VanVleet G | 32 | 14 | 3 | 5 | +5 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. F | 31 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +12 |
| Bench | |||||
| Tari Eason F | 27 | 12 | 6 | 0 | -7 |
| Marcus Smart G | 21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +6 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic G | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Steven Adams C | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +6 |
Did not play: Jae'Sean Tate (COACH'S DECISION), Isaiah Crawford (COACH'S DECISION), Clint Capela (COACH'S DECISION), Bruce Thornton (COACH'S DECISION)
| SA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper G | 36 | 20 | 3 | 2 | +4 |
| Devin Vassell G | 36 | 10 | 4 | 2 | +1 |
| De'Aaron Fox G | 34 | 19 | 4 | 9 | -14 |
| Stephon Castle G | 33 | 15 | 7 | 5 | -3 |
| Victor Wembanyama F | 32 | 25 | 13 | 2 | +3 |
| Bench | |||||
| Julian Champagnie F | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +7 |
| Keldon Johnson F | 19 | 8 | 6 | 1 | -6 |
| Luke Kornet C | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | -7 |
| Harrison Barnes F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carter Bryant F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
Did not play: Jordan McLaughlin (COACH'S DECISION), Tarris Reed Jr. (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSA -4.5
ModelSA -4.9
Model edgeSA +0.4
L HOU covered
Total
Market224.5
Model222.5
Model edgeUnder 2.0
W Under
Projected score
HOU 108.8 · SA 113.7
HOU 114 · SA 110
Win probability
SA 64%
1st half
Spread
SA -2.6
HOU -2.0
Total
111.6
120 points
Projected score
HOU 54.5 · SA 57.1
HOU 61 · SA 59
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSA -6.5
2 → HOU
CloseSA -4.5
2 pts toward HOU
Total
Open225.5
▼ 1
Close224.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
HOU +154 · SA -185
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SA -6.5 · closed SA -4.5 · moved 2 toward HOUmodel SA -5
model SA -5
Opened 225.5 · closed 224.5 · moved 1 downmodel 222.5
model 222.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUlast 1 | 1-0 100% | 1-0 100% | 1-0 100% |
| SAlast 1 | 0-1 0% | 0-1 0% | 0-1 0% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22
HOU 10–10 SASeries tied · 20 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 2 meetings · HOU 10-10 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025-26 | HOU 120 @ SA 145 | SA -5.5 | SA W |
| Jan 28, 2025-26 | SA 111 @ HOU 99 | HOU -2.5 | SA W |
| Jan 20, 2025-26 | SA 106 @ HOU 111 | HOU -4.5 | HOU W |
| Nov 7, 2025-26 | HOU 110 @ SA 121 | SA +4.5 | SA W |
| Feb 26, 2024-25 | SA 106 @ HOU 118 | HOU -7.5 | HOU W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Rockets
1 game played
Straight up
1-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-0
100% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-0
100% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | vs DAL | W 128-110 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 230.5 | O 238 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+8.5
covered 1didn’t cover 0avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+7.5
over 1under 0avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
1 game played
Straight up
0-1
0% wins
Against the spread
0-1
0% covers · avg −10.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-1
0% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | vs OKC | L 104-116 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 229.5 | U 220 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
covered 0didn’t cover 1avg −10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
over 0under 1avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Rockets
1-0 overall · 1-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Mavericks128–110
2 days since their last game.
Spurs
0-1 overall · 0-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Thunder104–116
3 days since their last game.