Kaseya Center · at Heat · Conference game
Closing line
DET -2.5✓ DET covered by 14.5
DET -2.5✓ DET covered by 14.5Closing total235.5Over by 3.5
| DET | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | ATS | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | O/U | 0-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DET 118–114 MIA · ✓ DET (61%) won
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 41 | 24 | 38 | 25 | 128 |
| MIA | 26 | 27 | 27 | 31 | 111 |
1st half: DET 65, MIA 53 (DET by 12). The model had DET by 2.3 and a total of 115.7 (actual 118).
Team stats
| DET | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 47-89 53% | Field goals | 39-102 38% |
| 18-38 47% | 3-pointers | 15-51 29% |
| 16-20 80% | Free throws | 18-28 64% |
| 53 12 off | Rebounds | 49 18 off |
| 34 | Assists | 24 |
| 8 | Steals | 8 |
| 7 | Blocks | 5 |
| 20 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 24 | Fouls | 23 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 22 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| DET | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham G | 30 | 16 | 2 | 8 | +9 |
| John Collins F | 29 | 23 | 7 | 1 | +15 |
| Duncan Robinson F | 28 | 17 | 1 | 2 | +22 |
| Ausar Thompson G | 19 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +14 |
| Jalen Duren C | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +12 |
| Bench | |||||
| Paul Reed F | 26 | 19 | 11 | 4 | +4 |
| Daniss Jenkins G | 22 | 15 | 5 | 5 | +14 |
| Ronald Holland II F | 22 | 8 | 5 | 4 | +4 |
| Kevin Huerter G | 20 | 5 | 6 | 2 | -1 |
| Isaiah Joe G | 18 | 12 | 3 | 1 | -8 |
| Javonte Green G | 13 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +3 |
| Tolu Smith F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 |
Did not play: Taurean Prince (COACH'S DECISION), Chaz Lanier (COACH'S DECISION), Ebuka Okorie (COACH'S DECISION)
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo F | 33 | 36 | 12 | 5 | -23 |
| Davion Mitchell G | 33 | 18 | 2 | 5 | -24 |
| Andrew Wiggins F | 26 | 8 | 8 | 2 | -19 |
| Klay Thompson G | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | -19 |
| Bam Adebayo C | 23 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -22 |
| Bench | |||||
| Pelle Larsson G | 29 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. G | 21 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Bobby Portis F | 21 | 11 | 8 | 2 | +6 |
| Nikola Jovic F | 13 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +1 |
| Dru Smith G | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +7 |
| Simone Fontecchio F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 |
| Myron Gardner F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
| Ryan Conwell G | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
| Nick Richards C | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 |
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDET -2.5
ModelDET -3.8
Model edgeDET +1.3
W DET covered
Total
Market235.5
Model231.2
Model edgeUnder 4.3
L Over
Projected score
DET 117.5 · MIA 113.7
DET 128 · MIA 111
Win probability
DET 61%
1st half
Spread
DET -2.3
DET -12.0
Total
115.7
118 points
Projected score
DET 59 · MIA 56.7
DET 65 · MIA 53
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -1.5
4 → DET
CloseDET -2.5
4 pts toward DET
Total
Open234.5
▲ 1
Close235.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
DET -130 · MIA +110
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -1.5 · closed DET -2.5 · moved 4 toward DETmodel DET -4
model DET -4
Opened 234.5 · closed 235.5 · moved 1 upmodel 231
model 231
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DETlast 1 | 1-0 100% | 1-0 100% | 1-0 100% |
| MIAlast 1 | 0-1 0% | 0-1 0% | 0-1 0% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22
DET 6–12 MIAMIA leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings · DET 13-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025-26 | DET 110 @ MIA 121 | MIA +1.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 1, 2025-26 | MIA 118 @ DET 112 | DET -4.5 | MIA W |
| Nov 29, 2025-26 | DET 138 @ MIA 135 | MIA -3.5 | DET W |
| Mar 19, 2024-25 | DET 116 @ MIA 113 | MIA +4.5 | MIA W |
| Dec 16, 2024-25 | MIA 124 @ DET 125 | DET +4.5 | DET W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pistons
1 game played
Straight up
1-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-0
100% covers · avg +9.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-0
100% overs · avg +13.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | vs BOS | W 121-113 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 220.5 | O 234 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+9.5
covered 1didn’t cover 0avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+13.5
over 1under 0avg +13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Heat
1 game played
Straight up
0-1
0% wins
Against the spread
0-1
0% covers · avg −26.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-1
0% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | vs MIN | L 106-131 | -1.5 | L −26.5 | 240.5 | U 237 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−26.5
covered 0didn’t cover 1avg −26.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsMIN
MINL 106-131
−3.5
over 0under 1avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pistons
1-0 overall · 1-0 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Celtics121–113
3 days since their last game.
Heat
0-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Timberwolves106–131
2 days since their last game.