Kaseya Center · at Heat
#2MINTimberwolves131▲ winner
Final
#18MIAHeat106final
Closing lineMIA -1.5✓ MIN covered by 26.5
Closing total240.5Under by 3.5
Season records: Timberwolves and Heat
MINThis seasonMIA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MIN 117–119 MIA · ✗ MIA (56%) lost
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Box score

Score by quarter
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN34353032131
MIA32272225106

1st half: MIN 69, MIA 59 (MIN by 10). The model had MIA by 1.1 and a total of 117.7 (actual 128).

Team stats

MINMIA
46-98 47%Field goals39-81 48%
21-50 42%3-pointers8-33 24%
18-29 62%Free throws20-26 77%
52 17 offRebounds34 4 off
20Assists27
11Steals7
2Blocks5
16Turnovers19
26Fouls28
38Points in paint54
5Fast-break points18

Players

MINMINPTSREBAST+/-
Rudy Gobert C335151+29
Anthony Edwards G3345103+25
Jonathan Kuminga F301213+20
LaMelo Ball G292126+18
Jaden McDaniels F291781+25
Bench
Ayo Dosunmu G291653+21
Terrence Shannon Jr. G201011+9
Joan Beringer F14061-7
Trey Lyles F12110-3
Bones Hyland G4310-2
Jaylen Clark G3111-4
Cody Williams F3000-4
Isaiah Evans F2010-2
MIAMINPTSREBAST+/-
Davion Mitchell G3311011-27
Bam Adebayo C311574-28
Giannis Antetokounmpo F303561-11
Andrew Wiggins F271121-25
Klay Thompson G161010-23
Bench
Bobby Portis F25741-5
Nikola Jovic F24442-5
Pelle Larsson G24234-12
Tim Hardaway Jr. G18341-5
Simone Fontecchio F3000+4
Myron Gardner F3420+4
Ryan Conwell G3002+4
Nick Richards C3410+4

Did not play: Dru Smith (COACH'S DECISION)

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Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIA -1.5
ModelMIA -2.2
Model edgeMIA +0.7
L MIN covered
Total
Market240.5
Model235.5
Model edgeUnder 5.0
W Under
Projected score
MIN 116.7 · MIA 118.8
MIN 131 · MIA 106
Win probability
MIA 56%
1st half
Spread
MIA -1.1
MIN -10.0
Total
117.7
128 points
Projected score
MIN 58.3 · MIA 59.4
MIN 69 · MIA 59

Market

Open → close
Spread
No change since the open
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
MIN -102 · MIA -118
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -1.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -2
Opened 240.5 · unchangedmodel 235.5
Openline modelTip-off

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Timberwolves

0-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • No games yet

A week or more of rest.

Heat

0-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • No games yet

A week or more of rest.