Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Oct 30, 10:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns · Conference game

#15DENNuggets127▲ winner

Final

#21PHXSuns120final

Closing lineDEN -4.5✓ DEN covered by 2.5

Closing total231.5Over by 15.5

Season records: Nuggets and Suns
DEN	This season	PHX
2-2	Record	1-2
1-3	ATS	0-3
2-2	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DEN 116–114 PHX · ✓ DEN (54%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by quarter

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
DEN	32	39	32	24	127
PHX	37	30	26	27	120

1st half: DEN 71, PHX 67 (DEN by 4). The model had DEN by 1.0 and a total of 115.2 (actual 138).

Team stats

DEN		PHX
42-80 53%	Field goals	46-94 49%
20-37 54%	3-pointers	18-42 43%
23-30 77%	Free throws	10-11 91%
40 12 off	Rebounds	42 15 off
30	Assists	34
11	Steals	10
3	Blocks	5
19	Turnovers	15
13	Fouls	22
32	Points in paint	50
14	Fast-break points	11

Players

DEN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Nikola Jokic C	37	18	7	10	+6
Jamal Murray G	37	39	8	5	+13
Christian Braun G	37	31	3	1	+9
Cameron Johnson F	34	12	9	3	+12
Aaron Gordon F	29	15	4	5	+11
Bench
DeMar DeRozan G	24	3	1	5	-4
Trevon Brazile F	19	6	3	1	-7
Marvin Bagley III F	11	0	5	0	+1
Tyus Jones G	11	3	0	0	-6

Did not play: Ryan Nembhard (COACH'S DECISION), Bryce Hopkins (COACH'S DECISION), DaRon Holmes II (COACH'S DECISION), Zeke Nnaji (COACH'S DECISION)

PHX	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	+/-
Devin Booker G	39	20	2	5	-14
Miles Bridges F	37	24	10	2	-1
Jalen Green G	25	2	2	2	-9
Dillon Brooks F	21	22	1	2	-14
Khaman Maluach C	17	9	6	0	-15
Bench
Collin Gillespie G	33	16	3	10	+8
Jordan Goodwin G	25	11	5	5	0
Oso Ighodaro F	21	2	9	5	+4
Luke Kennard G	12	9	1	2	+7
Ryan Dunn F	11	5	3	1	-1

Did not play: Jamaree Bouyea (COACH'S DECISION), Koa Peat (COACH'S DECISION), Rasheer Fleming (COACH'S DECISION), Duop Reath (COACH'S DECISION)

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s

MarketModelModel edgeResult

Spread

MarketDEN -4.5

ModelDEN -1.5

Model edgePHX +3.0

L DEN covered

Total

Market231.5

Model230.0

Model edgeUnder 1.5

L Over

Projected score

DEN 115.8 · PHX 114.3

DEN 127 · PHX 120

Win probability

DEN 54%

1st half

Spread

DEN -1.0

DEN -4.0

Total

115.2

138 points

Projected score

DEN 58.1 · PHX 57.1

DEN 71 · PHX 67

Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -2.5

2 → DEN

CloseDEN -4.5

2 pts toward DEN

Total

Open234.5

▼ 3

Close231.5

Down 3 since the open

Moneyline

DEN -180 · PHX +150

Line movement

Median of 1 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened DEN -2.5 · unchangedmodel DEN -1.5

model DEN -1.5

Openline modelTip-off

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Books

1 sportsbooks · prices at tip-off

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	DEN	PHX	Over	Under	DEN	PHX
DraftKingsDK	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	233.5-115	233.5-105	-130	+110

Last prices before tip-off from The Odds API. Green = best price in the column.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLW	1-3	25%	1-1	1-2
PHX LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; PHX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2
PHX UOO	2-1	67%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%
PHXlast 3	1-2 33%	0-3 0%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 23 since 2021-22

DEN 14–9 PHXDEN leads · 23 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 5 meetings · DEN 13-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 24, 2025-26	DEN 125 @ PHX 123	PHX +5.5	PHX W
Nov 29, 2025-26	DEN 130 @ PHX 112	PHX +3.5	DEN W
Oct 25, 2025-26	PHX 111 @ DEN 133	DEN -12.5	DEN W
Mar 7, 2024-25	PHX 141 @ DEN 149	DEN -8.5	PHX W
Feb 8, 2024-25	DEN 122 @ PHX 105	PHX +6.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −13.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

over 2under 2avg −13.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −13.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

over 2under 1avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets @ Suns

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market vs model

Market

Books

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Suns

Nuggets

Suns