Smoothie King Center · at Pelicans · Conference game
Closing line
DEN -4.5✓ DEN covered by 8.5
DEN -4.5✓ DEN covered by 8.5Closing total241.5Under by 46.5
| DEN | This season | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 0-3 |
| 0-3 | ATS | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | O/U | 3-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: DEN 123–121 NO · ✓ DEN (55%) won
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 37 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 104 |
| NO | 18 | 27 | 28 | 18 | 91 |
1st half: DEN 57, NO 45 (DEN by 12). The model had DEN by 1.1 and a total of 121.3 (actual 102).
Team stats
| DEN | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 37-80 46% | Field goals | 34-82 41% |
| 12-31 39% | 3-pointers | 7-30 23% |
| 18-19 95% | Free throws | 16-22 73% |
| 42 5 off | Rebounds | 41 8 off |
| 30 | Assists | 20 |
| 11 | Steals | 14 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 18 | Turnovers | 19 |
| 19 | Fouls | 21 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 19 |
Players
| DEN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray G | 38 | 23 | 1 | 6 | +11 |
| Christian Braun G | 36 | 15 | 0 | 4 | +15 |
| Nikola Jokic C | 34 | 21 | 13 | 10 | +17 |
| Trevon Brazile F | 32 | 11 | 8 | 0 | +14 |
| Aaron Gordon F | 31 | 15 | 11 | 3 | +15 |
| Bench | |||||
| DeMar DeRozan G | 26 | 6 | 2 | 5 | +2 |
| Marvin Bagley III F | 19 | 8 | 5 | 1 | -3 |
| Bryce Hopkins F | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -6 |
| Tyus Jones G | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Did not play: Cam Whitmore (COACH'S DECISION), Ryan Nembhard (COACH'S DECISION), DaRon Holmes II (COACH'S DECISION), Zeke Nnaji (COACH'S DECISION)
| NO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson F | 32 | 25 | 5 | 2 | -15 |
| Dejounte Murray G | 30 | 10 | 8 | 5 | -12 |
| Trey Murphy III F | 30 | 6 | 1 | 3 | -12 |
| Jeremiah Fears G | 24 | 11 | 4 | 3 | -8 |
| DeAndre Jordan C | 13 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -16 |
| Bench | |||||
| Saddiq Bey G | 26 | 9 | 0 | 3 | -22 |
| Derik Queen C | 25 | 11 | 12 | 1 | -5 |
| Herbert Jones F | 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 |
| Karlo Matkovic F | 18 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +16 |
| Bennedict Mathurin G | 14 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Jordan Poole G | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8 |
| Bryce McGowens G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Did not play: AJ Johnson (COACH'S DECISION), Julian Reese (COACH'S DECISION), Trendon Watford (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketDEN -4.5
ModelDEN -1.7
Model edgeNO +2.8
L DEN covered
Total
Market241.5
Model243.2
Model edgeOver 1.7
L Under
Projected score
DEN 122.5 · NO 120.8
DEN 104 · NO 91
Win probability
DEN 55%
1st half
Spread
DEN -1.1
DEN -12.0
Total
121.3
102 points
Projected score
DEN 61.2 · NO 60.1
DEN 57 · NO 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDEN -4.5
no move
CloseDEN -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open238.5
▲ 3
Close241.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
DEN -180 · NO +150
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DEN -4.5 · unchangedmodel DEN -1.5
model DEN -1.5
Opened 238.5 · closed 241.5 · moved 3 upmodel 243
model 243
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DENlast 3 | 1-2 33% | 0-3 0% | 2-1 67% |
| NOlast 3 | 0-3 0% | 2-1 67% | 3-0 100% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22
DEN 14–5 NODEN leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 7 meetings · DEN 10-9 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026-27 | NO 135 @ DEN 141 | DEN -11.5 | NO W |
| Jan 13, 2025-26 | DEN 122 @ NO 116 | NO +2.5 | DEN W |
| Nov 19, 2025-26 | DEN 125 @ NO 118 | NO +10.5 | NO W |
| Oct 29, 2025-26 | NO 88 @ DEN 122 | DEN -11.5 | DEN W |
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | NO 119 @ DEN 144 | DEN -11.5 | DEN W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Nuggets
3 games played
Straight up
1-2
33% wins
Against the spread
0-3
0% covers · avg −12.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@
OKC
OKCL 84-96
−4.5
24
vsNO
NOW 141-135
−5.5
26
vs
GS
GSL 114-134
−26.5
covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −12.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@OKC
OKCL 84-96
−56.5
24
vsNO
NOW 141-135
+36.5
26
vsGS
GSL 114-134
+11.5
over 2under 1avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pelicans
3 games played
Straight up
0-3
0% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-0
100% overs · avg +13.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@
UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
over 3under 0avg +13.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Nuggets
1-2 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Warriors114–134
- Wvs Pelicans141–135
- L@ Thunder84–96
2 days since their last game.
Pelicans
0-3 overall · 0-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
- Lvs Pacers120–123
4 days since their last game.