Target Center · at Timberwolves · Conference game
Closing line
MIN -3.5✓ GS covered by 8.5
MIN -3.5✓ GS covered by 8.5Closing total227.5Over by 5.5
 GS | This season | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 2-2 | ATS | 4-0 |
| 2-2 | O/U | 1-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: GS 110–123 MIN · ✗ MIN (83%) lost
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 30 | 34 | 29 | 26 | 119 |
| MIN | 23 | 25 | 33 | 33 | 114 |
1st half: GS 64, MIN 48 (GS by 16). The model had MIN by 7.5 and a total of 116.6 (actual 112).
Team stats
| GS | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 39-89 44% | Field goals | 40-90 44% |
| 11-35 31% | 3-pointers | 15-45 33% |
| 30-37 81% | Free throws | 19-27 70% |
| 52 13 off | Rebounds | 43 8 off |
| 26 | Assists | 32 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 5 | Blocks | 2 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 24 | Fouls | 29 |
| 54 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| GS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg F | 35 | 26 | 9 | 1 | +2 |
| Draymond Green F | 32 | 3 | 9 | 6 | +3 |
| Brandin Podziemski G | 32 | 8 | 5 | 6 | +3 |
| Stephen Curry G | 32 | 44 | 8 | 6 | +10 |
| Georges Niang F | 23 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +5 |
| Bench | |||||
| Will Richard G | 23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | -5 |
| De'Anthony Melton G | 20 | 8 | 6 | 0 | +2 |
| Al Horford C | 18 | 4 | 5 | 2 | -2 |
| Brandon Williams G | 14 | 11 | 3 | 1 | -2 |
| Gary Payton II G | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +6 |
| Charles Bassey C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 |
Did not play: Graham Ike (COACH'S DECISION), Malevy Leons (COACH'S DECISION), Gui Santos (COACH'S DECISION), LJ Cryer (COACH'S DECISION)
| MIN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels F | 35 | 19 | 7 | 4 | -11 |
| Jonathan Kuminga F | 32 | 20 | 3 | 5 | -9 |
| Ayo Dosunmu G | 32 | 17 | 3 | 4 | -9 |
| LaMelo Ball G | 28 | 8 | 4 | 8 | -2 |
| Rudy Gobert C | 20 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -11 |
| Bench | |||||
| Terrence Shannon Jr. G | 27 | 19 | 6 | 2 | +7 |
| Trey Lyles F | 22 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +7 |
| Joan Beringer F | 20 | 7 | 9 | 2 | -5 |
| Bones Hyland G | 16 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Clark G | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +8 |
Did not play: Cody Williams (COACH'S DECISION), Isaiah Evans (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIN -3.5
ModelMIN -13.6
Model edgeMIN +10.1
L GS covered
Total
Market227.5
Model233.1
Model edgeOver 5.6
W Over
Projected score
GS 109.8 · MIN 123.3
GS 119 · MIN 114
Win probability
MIN 83%
1st half
Spread
MIN -7.5
GS -16.0
Total
116.6
112 points
Projected score
GS 54.5 · MIN 62.1
GS 64 · MIN 48
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIN -6.5
3 → GS
CloseMIN -3.5
3 pts toward GS
Total
Open227.5
no move
Close227.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
GS +130 · MIN -155
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIN -6.5 · closed MIN -3.5 · moved 3 toward GSmodel MIN -13.5
model MIN -13.5
Opened 227.5 · unchangedmodel 233
model 233
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GSlast 4 | 1-3 25% | 2-2 50% | 2-2 50% |
| MINlast 4 | 3-1 75% | 4-0 100% | 1-3 25% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22
GS 9–15 MINMIN leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings · GS 10-14 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2025-26 | MIN 127 @ GS 117 | GS +4.5 | MIN W |
| Jan 26, 2025-26 | GS 83 @ MIN 108 | MIN -8.5 | MIN W |
| Jan 25, 2025-26 | GS 111 @ MIN 85 | MIN -5.5 | GS W |
| Dec 12, 2025-26 | MIN 127 @ GS 120 | GS -4.5 | MIN W |
| May 14, 2024-25 | GS 110 @ MIN 121 | MIN -9.5 | MIN W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Warriors
4 games played
Straight up
1-3
25% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
LAL
LALL 105-127
−15.5
23
vs
MEM
MEML 108-111
−7.5
24
@
PHX
PHXL 122-131
+0.5
26
@
DEN
DENW 134-114
+26.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@LAL
LALL 105-127
−1.5
23
vsMEM
MEML 108-111
−17.5
24
@PHX
PHXL 122-131
+31.5
26
@DEN
DENW 134-114
+11.5
over 2under 2avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Timberwolves
4 games played
Straight up
3-1
75% wins
Against the spread
4-0
100% covers · avg +17.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
MIA
MIAW 131-106
+26.5
23
@
ORL
ORLW 115-93
+23.5
25
vs
TOR
TORW 117-94
+19.5
26
@
CLE
CLEL 125-127
+1.5
covered 4didn’t cover 0avg +17.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@MIA
MIAW 131-106
−3.5
23
@ORL
ORLW 115-93
−26.5
25
vsTOR
TORW 117-94
−17.5
26
@CLE
CLEL 125-127
+17.5
over 1under 3avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Warriors
1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nuggets134–114
- L@ Suns122–131
- Lvs Grizzlies108–111
- L@ Lakers105–127
2 days since their last game.
Timberwolves
3-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Cavaliers125–127
- Wvs Raptors117–94
- W@ Magic115–93
- W@ Heat131–106
2 days since their last game.