Fiserv Forum · at Bucks
Closing line
HOU -8.5✓ HOU covered by 23.5
HOU -8.5✓ HOU covered by 23.5Closing total226.5Over by 5.5
| HOU | This season | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | Record | 1-3 |
| 4-0 | ATS | 2-2 |
| 3-1 | O/U | 3-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: HOU 120–109 MIL · ✓ HOU (77%) won
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 23 | 34 | 38 | 37 | 132 |
| MIL | 21 | 14 | 34 | 31 | 100 |
1st half: HOU 57, MIL 35 (HOU by 22). The model had HOU by 6.1 and a total of 114.7 (actual 92).
Team stats
| HOU | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 46-84 55% | Field goals | 37-92 40% |
| 17-38 45% | 3-pointers | 12-41 29% |
| 23-26 88% | Free throws | 14-18 78% |
| 44 8 off | Rebounds | 40 14 off |
| 27 | Assists | 19 |
| 12 | Steals | 8 |
| 10 | Blocks | 3 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 48 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 17 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson G | 33 | 23 | 4 | 3 | +13 |
| Tari Eason F | 31 | 5 | 9 | 1 | +12 |
| Kevin Durant F | 31 | 18 | 5 | 4 | +6 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. F | 30 | 14 | 2 | 2 | +23 |
| Fred VanVleet G | 29 | 24 | 6 | 5 | +19 |
| Bench | |||||
| Reed Sheppard G | 23 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +13 |
| Clint Capela C | 22 | 10 | 8 | 2 | +23 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic G | 15 | 16 | 2 | 4 | +23 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe C | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +10 |
| Isaiah Crawford F | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 |
| Jae'Sean Tate F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 |
| Bruce Thornton G | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +5 |
| MIL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro G | 27 | 23 | 3 | 0 | -12 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. F | 27 | 19 | 4 | 2 | -14 |
| Myles Turner C | 22 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2 |
| Kyle Kuzma F | 18 | 4 | 6 | 1 | -3 |
| Ryan Rollins G | 17 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -8 |
| Bench | |||||
| AJ Green G | 24 | 9 | 1 | 2 | -18 |
| Nate Ament F | 20 | 8 | 4 | 0 | -11 |
| Kasparas Jakucionis G | 19 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -18 |
| Kel'el Ware C | 17 | 6 | 8 | 0 | -31 |
| Brayden Burries G | 17 | 10 | 5 | 1 | -18 |
| Ousmane Dieng F | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -8 |
| Jericho Sims C | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 |
| Gary Trent Jr. G | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -11 |
| Bogoljub Markovic F | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -9 |
Did not play: Caris LeVert (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHOU -8.5
ModelHOU -10.6
Model edgeHOU +2.1
W HOU covered
Total
Market226.5
Model229.1
Model edgeOver 2.6
W Over
Projected score
HOU 119.8 · MIL 109.3
HOU 132 · MIL 100
Win probability
HOU 77%
1st half
Spread
HOU -6.1
HOU -22.0
Total
114.7
92 points
Projected score
HOU 60.4 · MIL 54.3
HOU 57 · MIL 35
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -8.5
no move
CloseHOU -8.5
No change since the open
Total
Open227.5
▼ 1
Close226.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
HOU -340 · MIL +270
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -8.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -10.5
model HOU -10.5
Opened 227.5 · closed 226.5 · moved 1 downmodel 229
model 229
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUlast 4 | 4-0 100% | 4-0 100% | 3-1 75% |
| MILlast 4 | 1-3 25% | 2-2 50% | 3-1 75% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
HOU 5–5 MILSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 3 meetings · HOU 6-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025-26 | MIL 113 @ HOU 119 | HOU -19.5 | MIL W |
| Nov 9, 2025-26 | HOU 122 @ MIL 115 | MIL +3.5 | HOU W |
| Feb 25, 2024-25 | MIL 97 @ HOU 100 | HOU -2.5 | HOU W |
| Nov 18, 2024-25 | HOU 100 @ MIL 101 | MIL -3.5 | HOU W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | MIL 108 @ HOU 112 | HOU +7.5 | HOU W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Rockets
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
4-0
100% covers · avg +7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-1
75% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
DAL
DALW 128-110
+8.5
23
@
SA
SAW 114-110
+8.5
24
@
ATL
ATLW 121-114
+5.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+5.5
covered 4didn’t cover 0avg +7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+7.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
−0.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+7.5
26
vsATL
ATLW 120-110
+1.5
over 3under 1avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bucks
4 games played
Straight up
1-3
25% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-1
75% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
WSH
WSHL 116-128
−7.5
23
vs
CHI
CHIL 125-132
−8.5
24
@
PHI
PHIL 116-127
+1.5
26
vs
IND
INDW 110-102
+11.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
+4.5
23
vsCHI
CHIL 125-132
+15.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+8.5
26
vsIND
INDW 110-102
−27.5
over 3under 1avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Rockets
4-0 overall · 2-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks120–110
- W@ Hawks121–114
- W@ Spurs114–110
- Wvs Mavericks128–110
2 days since their last game.
Bucks
1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Pacers110–102
- L@ 76ers116–127
- Lvs Bulls125–132
- L@ Wizards116–128
2 days since their last game.