Toyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets
Closing line
HOU -4.5✓ HOU covered by 5.5
HOU -4.5✓ HOU covered by 5.5Closing total228.5Over by 1.5
 ATL | This season | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | Record | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | ATS | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | O/U | 2-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ATL 113–117 HOU · ✓ HOU (62%) won
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Box score
Score by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 35 | 31 | 19 | 25 | 110 |
| HOU | 32 | 31 | 28 | 29 | 120 |
1st half: ATL 66, HOU 63 (ATL by 3). The model had HOU by 2.3 and a total of 115.2 (actual 129).
Team stats
| ATL | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 42-98 43% | Field goals | 43-81 53% |
| 11-39 28% | 3-pointers | 8-27 30% |
| 15-21 71% | Free throws | 26-32 81% |
| 35 13 off | Rebounds | 52 12 off |
| 26 | Assists | 31 |
| 10 | Steals | 11 |
| 4 | Blocks | 9 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 22 |
| 25 | Fouls | 22 |
| 56 | Points in paint | 64 |
| 20 | Fast-break points | 26 |
Players
| ATL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson F | 36 | 21 | 9 | 4 | -9 |
| CJ McCollum G | 30 | 20 | 1 | 3 | -5 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker G | 29 | 12 | 2 | 3 | -12 |
| Onyeka Okongwu F | 29 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Dyson Daniels G | 28 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 |
| Bench | |||||
| Aaron Wiggins G | 27 | 12 | 4 | 3 | -12 |
| Luguentz Dort G | 21 | 11 | 2 | 1 | -17 |
| Kingston Flemings G | 18 | 6 | 1 | 3 | -5 |
| Jock Landale C | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | -17 |
| Corey Kispert F | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +7 |
| Asa Newell F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +7 |
| Zuby Ejiofor F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 |
| Dorian Finney-Smith F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 |
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. F | 39 | 16 | 12 | 5 | +12 |
| Alperen Sengun C | 37 | 29 | 9 | 9 | +29 |
| Kevin Durant F | 30 | 22 | 9 | 3 | +9 |
| Fred VanVleet G | 29 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +15 |
| Amen Thompson G | 28 | 15 | 5 | 2 | -3 |
| Bench | |||||
| Tari Eason F | 33 | 13 | 8 | 2 | +11 |
| Reed Sheppard G | 24 | 13 | 0 | 4 | +2 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic G | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Clint Capela C | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -5 |
| Isaiah Crawford F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 |
| Jae'Sean Tate F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -7 |
| Bruce Thornton G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 |
Did not play: Sean Pedulla (COACH'S DECISION)
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHOU -4.5
ModelHOU -4.4
Model edgeATL +0.1
L HOU covered
Total
Market228.5
Model230.2
Model edgeOver 1.7
W Over
Projected score
ATL 112.9 · HOU 117.3
ATL 110 · HOU 120
Win probability
HOU 62%
1st half
Spread
HOU -2.3
ATL -3.0
Total
115.2
129 points
Projected score
ATL 56.5 · HOU 58.8
ATL 66 · HOU 63
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -5.5
1 → ATL
CloseHOU -4.5
1 pt toward ATL
Total
Open229.5
▼ 1
Close228.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
ATL +160 · HOU -192
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -5.5 · closed HOU -4.5 · moved 1 toward ATLmodel HOU -4.5 matches the line
model HOU -4.5 = line ✓
Opened 229.5 · closed 228.5 · moved 1 downmodel 230
model 230
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATLlast 3 | 2-1 67% | 2-1 67% | 2-1 67% |
| HOUlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 3-0 100% | 2-1 67% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
ATL 4–7 HOUHOU leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 5 meetings · ATL 5-5-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026-27 | HOU 121 @ ATL 114 | ATL +1.5 | HOU W |
| Mar 20, 2025-26 | ATL 95 @ HOU 117 | HOU -2.5 | HOU W |
| Jan 29, 2025-26 | HOU 104 @ ATL 86 | ATL +6.5 | HOU W |
| Mar 25, 2024-25 | ATL 114 @ HOU 121 | HOU -7.5 | ATL W |
| Jan 28, 2024-25 | HOU 100 @ ATL 96 | ATL +5.5 | ATL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Hawks
3 games played
Straight up
2-1
67% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg +16.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
ORL
ORLW 132-125
+9.5
23
@
CHA
CHAW 128-81
+44.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 114-121
−5.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +16.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@ORL
ORLW 132-125
+23.5
23
@CHA
CHAW 128-81
−17.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 114-121
+7.5
over 2under 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Rockets
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-0
100% covers · avg +7.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
DAL
DALW 128-110
+8.5
23
@
SA
SAW 114-110
+8.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+5.5
covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsDAL
DALW 128-110
+7.5
23
@SA
SAW 114-110
−0.5
24
@ATL
ATLW 121-114
+7.5
over 2under 1avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Hawks
2-1 overall · 2-0 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Rockets114–121
- W@ Hornets128–81
- W@ Magic132–125
2 days since their last game.
Rockets
3-0 overall · 2-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Hawks121–114
- W@ Spurs114–110
- Wvs Mavericks128–110
2 days since their last game.